XAO Technical Analysis

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

Interesting to see divergence between NASDAQ/S&P and the Dow.

Also interesting to see a rally into the close. Who was buying in and why?

Actual there was way more selling than buying. Market breadth was 4 to 1 negative last night. If you want to talk divergence thats negative. Price weighted DOW is rubbish.

 

[Porper]

Re: XAO Analysis

When its at home, what do you mean?

Sorry, bit of English, Yorkshire slang.It basically means I don't know/understand.

Anyway seems far too complicated for a tradesman like myself.Suppose the question is how accurate is it ?

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

Actual there was way more selling than buying. Market breadth was 4 to 1 negative last night. If you want to talk divergence thats negative. Price weighted DOW is rubbish.

DOW, S&P and NASDAQ all moved higher in afternoon trading. Not overly important to me, considering they didnt all break into positive territory and close there (called a V-bottom reversal), but still better than a further capitulation from the morning jitters.

Either way, this is only retrospect. I have stated my peice, time will tell. If Im wrong Im wrong. Im happy with that. All part of the learning curve.

Porper, VantagePoint now allows you to trade many markets, from commodities, stocks, FOREX etc. You can choose the ones you want to pay for (depending on what your preference of trading is). It is between 70-80% accurate (this is the bit I am sceptical of, exactly how this is derived and plan to ring them to find out, as there are multiple ways to trade using VantagePoint, either intraday or position). I personally havent used it yet, but have it here and just need to get the code to use it from my cousin so I can take a look for myself. The maths is too complex for me also, so outcome is all I will look for. While I hate not understanding the WHYs of things, sometimes its the only option if the outcome speaks for itself. Trouble is, when things change, it takes longer for those who dont know the why to catch on.

 

[brty]

Re: XAO Analysis

Treefrog,

You don't have to feel sorry for me, I have been long a couple of bank shares since Monday of last week, they are still in profit.

I've raised my stop, so baring a huge gap down, I'll be fine. I've been in cash since last year when we sold a few properties.

bye

brty

 

[IFocus]

Re: XAO Analysis

Narrow range day on rising volume as the current bear primary down trend continues unabated. There seems to be some ongoing sloshing of money maybe from materials to financials. S&P/ASX200 index weighting for materials now 27.1% verse financials 28.2%.

Included the XMJ again as the XMJ threatens to take us lower IMHO, this chart showing a minor head and shoulders formed in the current price action. A break of the neck line (green line) could well take us down to test the major neck line area.

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

What you think Porper/Waves anyone?

 

[treefrog]

Re: XAO Analysis

What you think Porper/Waves anyone?

from 2,3,4, I get first possible extension (point 5) of 4775 - so a way to go yet before the bounce, but then I only use fib extensions - too much detail in elliot waves for frogs
but if I use your point A for point 4 it gives 5 (bounce) at 4870 - a bit higher (prefer this for point 4)

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

Frog

Yes those retracements have been mentioned before.
I make it around the same as you for a wave 3 (Corrective move) on Weekly's

Monthly is showing 4765 in a wave 4 leg completion.
So more likely your 4775 looking significant.
Trading below 4965 will see the above daily chart proven in correct.

 

[mayk]

Re: XAO Analysis

Wavepicker must have a crystal ball to see the unfolding of events to suggest 11-th and 21-st of march as important dates: 12-being the date of injection of 200B by RBS in to economy; and 19-20-being the Fed rate cut and more than expected results of Gold-man Sucks and Left-man Bros.

Nice work Wavepicker.

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

Where did that primary trend go?

Appears seasonality is winning the day for the moment. Just need the big rate cut now and its a done deal!

So the question is: dead cat bounce or momentum? Early days yet, should know by 3:50pm our time.

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

Where did that primary trend go?

Appears seasonality is winning the day for the moment. Just need the big rate cut now and its a done deal!

So the question is: dead cat bounce or momentum? Early days yet, should know by 3:50pm our time.

Well here goes.

I will be looking for this bounce to run for a while now (no time-limit, only so long as price movements keep me in, but could be longer than expected with all the bears jumping on me, no doubt more will come into this thread again). Never fight momentum, strength usually preceeds strength and best to play it this way until seen otherwise. Really like the fact that there was a bit of a fightback by the bears later in the day, only to see the smart money come in strong late. Two more days of tripple witching week and two more days before the public holidays begin in the US. Which are only good signs for the market Thursday, Tuesday our time.

Wonder how many will be left on the sidelines with their ballz in their hands.......... Only to switch to bulls right before the next downturn.

As I stated earlier, crash cycle anyone?

Also note, the Russell 2000 performed extremelly well and as such, small caps should have their best go today. Best to watch for a continuation of this pattern to know which sector/area to move into.

Good luck!

 

[cordelia]

Re: XAO Analysis

Also interesting to see a rally into the close. Who was buying in and why?

Couldn't a rally into the close suggest that shorters are closing out their positions? Just wondering

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

Couldn't a rally into the close suggest that shorters are closing out their positions? Just wondering

Yes, it could.

However, its always good to see price strength into the close.

Next two days are the real tests for momentum.

I have scoured over nearly every single possible indicator (that I know of and learning the ones I dont) and trading style over the past few months, trying to make heads or tails of this market mess. Hence why I have thrown sentiment and seasonality into the mix, both of which appear seldom used on this forum, or at least discussed. My conclusion, momentum trading is the current way to go. Have to be VERY careful of whipsaws doing this however with the extreme volatility of late.

Like in the late 90s, many market tools/indicators are prooving blunt and obselete.

Things change, best to keep up with it. A LOT easier said than done!

Good luck to all no matter your positions or trading style!

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

Hence why I have thrown sentiment and seasonality into the mix, both of which appear seldom used on this forum, or at least discussed.

Sentiment = VSA and Wyckoff,Motorway has quite a thread going.
You could also search Tradeguider.
Of all the Analysis "Worth" using I have found VSA and Elliott/Pattern combination to be the best for shorter term trading.

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: XAO Analysis

What you think Porper/Waves anyone?

I'm looking for about 4750 here tech. I think I've posted that before. I think it will really bog just under 5000 though.

Eventually looking for the low 4000s...

Not exactly sure what strategy I'm going to employ at or around that 4700 point... if it gets there.

Financials still have about 10% to go until they get support by my watch. Matches up roughly...

MRC... I think you are a pretty good trader if you've been making money on stocks the last week. Had I not been too busy to trade them, I'm sure I would have copped it from stocks. You might as well be buying/ selling on the opens and closes. Will be a very interesting day. A lot of nerves no doubt.

Anyway, this is what I've been going off for the XAO for quite some time:

Cheers.

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

Yes, but still rarely seen, only a couple of guys actually posting it. I see a lot more TA than anything else, hands down.

Good luck! Sure to be a LOT of nerves today as you say chops!

Making money on stocks this last week? Na, more like breaking even! Infact, Im having some time on the sidelines if we have a downer overnight. Falling into the habbit of over-trading!

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: XAO Analysis

Making money on stocks this last week? Na, more like breaking even! Infact, Im having some time on the sidelines if we have a downer overnight. Falling into the habbit of over-trading!

I think most traders have at some stage battled with or are addicted to trading.

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

I think most traders have at some stage battled with or are addicted to trading.

Yes, I agree.

I always try to remain as disciplined as possible and usually dont have a problem. However, there have been a few trades lately which afterwards I thought, "WTF did I do that for?"

Might be time to sit it out for a while.

Good luck to all, you sure will need it over this next little while!

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

Infact, Im having some time on the sidelines if we have a downer overnight. Falling into the habbit of over-trading!

I think most traders have at some stage battled with or are addicted to trading.

Over trading is a load of Bull####. If you have positive expectancy you can't trade enough!

Would you say that Tiger Woods is over playing golf? No because he wins most the time. Could I over play golf? Yep because I'm crap at it and I'm wasting my time where I could be doing something more productive.

Don't confuse a cliche for a problem.(negative expectancy)

 

[BradK]

Re: XAO Analysis

SOMEONE is addicted.... and overtrades... Doopdidoo... da dooo... *whistle whistle*...