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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

No, you have a trading method and should stick too it! Testing.

Making trades based more on emotion and less on your criterion is not good, hence over-trading.

And it is possible to over-play golf! If you do, you will end up with endless injuries! Any sportsman knows this! Chops might have an example.........
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
Over trading is a load of Bull####. If you have positive expectancy you can't trade enough!

Would you say that Tiger Woods is over playing golf? No because he wins most the time. Could I over play golf? Yep because I'm crap at it and I'm wasting my time where I could be doing something more productive.

Don't confuse a cliche for a problem.(negative expectancy)
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If you've noticed, Tiger does taper for a lot of tournaments. It's why he doesn't burn out. If he played every tournament like everyone else, he wouldn't be as effective because he's a power athlete. He just chooses the ones he wants to win.

I'd say it's the same with trading... if you aren't prepared, you wont perform at your best. Some people are obviously going to perform better at higher frequencies than others... Purely mechanical yeah fine, if you have an edge/ positive expectatio trade more, but if you are a discretionary trader, why wouldn't it affect your performance?

My we are grumpy lately... :p:

MRC & Co said:
And it is possible to over-play golf! If you do, you will end up with endless injuries! Any sportsman knows this! Chops might have an example.........
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I have no idea what you are talking about... :eek:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

MRC & Co said:
No, you have a trading method and should stick too it! Testing.

Making trades based more on emotion and less on your criterion is not good, hence over-trading.
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I will disagree 100% with that. If you have a trading "plan" you know works there is no way in the world you will stray from it. greed will keep you on it just fine. The only reason you would stray from its is because you think its not that good and you must try something else.

In that case it isn't emotion or over trading that is the problem. Its lack of an edge.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
I will disagree 100% with that. If you have a trading "plan" you know works there is no way in the world you will stray from it. greed will keep you on it just fine. The only reason you would stray from its is because you think its not that good and you must try something else.

In that case it isn't emotion or over trading that is the problem. Its lack of an edge.
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You can look through my trade back-log!

I am still quiet a fair way up for the year (though, my methods have become in-effective as of late, but I bet most have......). Would have been a LOT more effective if I set tight trailing stops, this is the part that has killed me. Hindsight hey! Where are your predictions? Seem to be awefully few! Everything is easily predicted from behind your computer with complete secrecy huh ;)

As for not straying from a trading plan, are you kidding me? Over-confidence in past success has a funny way of dealing with people! Greed breeds greed, which in turn, breeds further aggression, which in turn breeds poor decisions.

Cheers
 
Re: XAO Analysis

MRC & Co said:
Where are your predictions? Seem to be awefully few! Everything is easily predicted from behind your computer with complete secrecy huh ;)
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Sorry if I offended you but I disagree. thats all :eek:

As for predictions I got a blog full of them. Maybe the one about the miners and gold some should of considered rather than falling in love with an idea. If you would like me to send through some statements no prob just pm me. You may be surprised to find I do know what I'm doing here.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Insinuation is offending. Anyways, next topic.

I dont need trading statements, you have enough experience so Im sure you know what your doing!

I read the gold blog, but stuck to my methods. Either way, I actually got out more than I thought yesterday, weakness preceeds weakness and all that! Too bad it took the big hit last night, as another fall overnight and I was planning on exiting 100%. Now all out without too big losses.

Excellent.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

XAO got slammed today nothing like rejection thanks to materials and energy unfortunately I was hoping for a decent run up still may happen but unlikely soon. As we run lower it seems 1/2 the XAO stocks are becoming penny stocks price wise.

Have thrown up the Materials XMJ again to show a clean break of the smaller H&S neck line not unusual for the neck line area to be retested before continuing lower.

Hope everyone enjoys the Easter break and if traveling a safe return.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Only new to this site, but great thread ppl, keep up the analysis and education....


Luv it.............. swinger
 
Re: XAO Analysis

We see plenty of gloomy posts in here, I thought I'd post up a chart with some indicators might make a few people feel a bit better.

Who knows, the chart might even play out as bullish divergence. We have seen in recent days plenty of Buy side money out there that can drive markets a long way if the mood changes. Sure would be nice if the XAO would hold above 5000. The US was up strongly last night, so an up day is likely on Tuesday.

All the same, the XAO would need to rise a long way before breaking above the down-channel.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Logique said:
We see plenty of gloomy posts in here.......
The US was up strongly last night, so an up day is likely on Tuesday.
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As long as the Americans don't reverse today's up on Monday.The market has a habit of doing this.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

sassa said:
As long as the Americans don't reverse today's up on Monday.The market has a habit of doing this.
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Is the US market open on Monday? I thought their easter holidays were the same as ours, Friday & Monday.

Logique, I have been the only bull in here since the day before the IR cut (though very tentative bull and only short-term).
 
Re: XAO Analysis

MRC & Co said:
Is the US market open on Monday? I thought their easter holidays were the same as ours, Friday & Monday.

Logique, I have been the only bull in here since the day before the IR cut (though very tentative bull and only short-term).
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According to the NYSE calendar,they are open for business.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Interesting, thanks sassa.

Generally, the day after the break, follows on from the trend on the last day of trade the previous week.

If not, its usually a warning sign.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

MRC & Co said:
Interesting, thanks sassa.

Generally, the day after the break, follows on from the trend on the last day of trade the previous week.

If not, its usually a warning sign.
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The downgrading of Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers to negative over the weekend by S & P should have effect on the financials in America on Monday.This would spill over to our market on Tuesday.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

sassa said:
The downgrading of Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers to negative over the weekend by S & P should have effect on the financials in America on Monday.This would spill over to our market on Tuesday.
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Yes it will. Very hard to predict at the moment, big news overlapping big news all the time. Making this a true mess! Ah well, I will try trade it as best I can. At least minimise losses, smaller position sizing and tighter stops are on their way for me.

Man, this thread has been D E A D lately! Seems 75% of the ASF Community have either been wiped out, or given up trading this mess.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

MRC & Co said:
Yes it will. Very hard to predict at the moment, big news overlapping big news all the time. Making this a true mess!
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Bad news?? always comes after markets have closed but good?? or convenient?? always during market hours.I wonder why the Goldman Sachs,Lehman Brothers downgrade wasn't released on Thursday along with the good news that propelled the market in the good old U.S.of A.Was it a case of CYA?
 
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