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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

I dont base my analysis on what I think, or logical reasoning. Only on what I have read is statistically probable.

To date, I havent read anything about strong historical performance towards the end of each quarter.

Cheers
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Very solid consolidation happening since it gapped higher over the long easter weekend. Tight trading band of around 120pts over 4 days of trading.

What's the norm after a consolidation? Does it go off in the direction it was heading before? ie... up in this case?

Also, gaps usally gets closed, there was a huge gap over the easter break... any chance of that getting closed? hmmm... what do fundamentalist and technicals say about that?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Where is the gap?

Much depends on what kind of gap it is, but I cant see one.

I cant see volume, but I like the fact we have closed near the highs now over a few consecutive days. Perhaps today was a "test" with the longer tail.

Most comes down to the US anyways, so I dont bother much with XAO analysis these days.

Dont think fundamentals come into it much at the moment with this volatility (at least in the short-term).

I personally, expect to see an up-week next week and then some more carnage..........
 
Re: XAO Analysis

There's gaps everywhere on the SPI which is the driver for the XAO.

A big one at 5580 to 5480,
A Bigger one 5200 to 5330. (SPI numbers)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

So which gap on the SPI will fill TH? The one above where we are at 5580 to 5480 or the one below 5200 to 5330...........?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Here's the graph of the gap I'm talking about...

I realise I've posted the 24hr SPI chart (not the XAO/XJO)... but remember the aussie index is traded approx 20hrs/5days a week.

March 20th (eve of Easter Friday), the SYCOM market closed at midnight. Last price was 5141 (XJO).

Easter Monday, market was still closed. Come Tuesday March 25th when the AU market re-opened, there was a 230-odd point gap.

From my experience, gaps eventually get filled most of the time, ie, the SYCOM closing price and the cash market opening price, there are usually gaps. These gaps close up eventually - but not sure what's the go with this 230pt gap ?
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
Futures traders use the cash hours to calculate gaps not the 24 hour charts!!
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... perhaps, but from what I've traded, the 24hr gaps gets closed almost all the time. I can't think of one gap that has not been closed in the last few months anyway.

The "gap trade" is very lucrative if you can spot a good setup. Today was a fine example. Last overnight quote was 5355. The index reopened at 5377. "Easy" 23 points. The larger the gap, the more 'pull' it has. I've noticed gaps of >20pts are easy trades. < 10pts needs caution and anything < 5pts is probably not worth trading.

The only point i'm making about this 230pt gap is that it's like a black hole or vaccum that's probably holding the index back from going further. Having said that, I've never seen a 230pt gap before and have no idea on how it will affects things. My feeling is that we may very welll close this gap in the near future - I only say this cos the 5400 (XJO) barrier is not giving way, so it can only head in the other way.... which is back down... :2twocents
 
Re: XAO Analysis

korrupt_1 said:
I get a feeling it could be a pump and dump day...
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I thought the same Korrupt. Was surprised to see it hold steady. ASX is looking strong in comparison to the US at the moment (perhaps some catchup from the blows it was taking previously) or maybe just represents we are in a better situation than the US.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Last two days been good volume up days. Open interest dropped for the first time in a week yesterday on the SPI probably again today. Would suggest a good amount of covering. SPI call buying rising, good sign.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

bryan_palmer said:
Does this suggest the market volatility is over and we are going to get some stability?
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Nope.

Suggests this little rally is looking ok, I will keep riding the trend as I stated back at the IR cut. Dont think it will last long, possibly only days or weeks, will probably look to profit take around Tuesday and Wednesday next week, all going according to plan.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

dodgers said:
whats your view on the bottom of the last leg tech/a, 4800?
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My current view.
This could alter depending on what happens at each expected move point.
5900 ish and 4800-4300 ish

asx2001-2.gif

Expected timing for end wave 4 April 18-22nd
 
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