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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

sassa said:
Bad news?? always comes after markets have closed but good?? or convenient?? always during market hours.I wonder why the Goldman Sachs,Lehman Brothers downgrade wasn't released on Thursday along with the good news that propelled the market in the good old U.S.of A.Was it a case of CYA?
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It's been like this for many many years. All the bad news get released after the close on Friday, hoping that, with the extra time to absorb the information, the stocks won't drop as much (if at all). People can be forgettful sometimes, or somehow rejustify their current long positions. On the other hand, good news always get release during (or just before) the trading hours, giving them a boost.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Thats a little unexpected that the US market would open on Easter Monday. It will be interesting to see what happens. Checking the June DJIA Futures contracts on the US Sunday night, currently showing up by +211 points.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Logique said:
Thats a little unexpected that the US market would open on Easter Monday. It will be interesting to see what happens. Checking the June DJIA Futures contracts on the US Sunday night, currently showing up by +211 points.
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Nah sorry to disappoint you they are just 20 points up from the last close.

Whatever you are looking at its probably not updated from last week :rolleyes:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

OK sorry if I've misled anyone. What I'm looking at is the CNNMoney Pre-market indicators page, dated 3/23 at 8:57pm (US), which has now moved to DJIA +263 points. We know that pre-market doesn't always match the close, so it needs to be taken in that cautious light.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Logique said:
OK sorry if I've misled anyone. What I'm looking at is the CNNMoney Pre-market indicators page, dated 3/23 at 8:57pm (US), which has now moved to DJIA +263 points. We know that pre-market doesn't always match the close, so it needs to be taken in that cautious light.
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I think that must be from the open on the last trading day, Thursday morn open US time, not from the close on Thursday. and since the Dow was up some 200 points its not that much of a move as it stands now.

Here is the Dow Futures as of 12:57 Oz time. not much move really.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Well the DOW has been up about 440 pts since we lasted traded. If it were a fair world, our market should rise by about 200 pts :)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Yes, this momentum that started with the last multiple IR cut and last weeks seasonality is looking very nice indeed.

Next week, more strong seasonality factors should kick in.

Price action has confirmed my sentiments and I have accumulated two small caps (with the Russell 2000 divergence lately), I am also looking at some tech stocks based on NASDAQ performance, along with a financial.

Just need further confirmation of price momentum and I will continue to accumulate until the turn.

Cheers
 
Re: XAO Analysis

XAO still in the box no range break out yet more churn or breakout tomorrow? Appears to be weaker or trailing the US S&P500 as the S&P has moved back into the range above

.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Nice one MRC,
and agree with IFocus that we need box breakout on the XAO to confirm daily trend change. If we were in a bull market, wouldn't you go long financials and property trusts atm! On daily technical trend they look cherry ripe.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

What was Wavepickers next date for a top or bottom? 21 March? Maybe a bottom. Would be good to see an update of the analysis. Doesn't seem to be going quite to plan, unless the plan was rejigged considering the market action and we have new dates for a high, or low ....:confused:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

A lotta Talking Heads in the media saying that the bottom is in... so might be a good time to pull on the old pair of stubbies again ....
Cheers
...........Kauri
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
What was Wavepickers next date for a top or bottom? 21 March? Maybe a bottom. Would be good to see an update of the analysis. Doesn't seem to be going quite to plan, unless the plan was rejigged considering the market action and we have new dates for a high, or low ....:confused:
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No EW analysis here, but for what its worth....the chart shows 3 Bollinger Bands set at 21, 34 and 55 day. 3 x BBs are used to show the volatility in different time frames, the RED being short term, BLUE intermediate and GREEN MAs longer term.

I have drawn in black dashed vertical lines as examples of how you might try to anticipate a bottom. Note that as the price commences a downswing the upper BBs push up but then curl over as a bottom is put in.

Also, you often see at least the RED and BLUE bottom BBs try to curl around and encapsulate the bottom's price action. You can see at the last black vertical line (on 23rd Jan)that the bottom BBs couldn't turn (curl up) because of the sheer volatility in the down swing. In fact the green band just kept traversing downward suggesting the possibility that a bottom wasn't in.

What am I looking for now? As of yesterday's price action the upper Blue and Red BBs have curled down suggestive of a possible bottom. The lower green band has curled up also suggesting a reprieve. I want to see the lower RED AND BLUE bands curl up in the next day or two to give confirmation to a temp bottom.

Note the huge distance between the upper and lower green bands. With such huge volatility, all the price action can do is simply claw back or retrace some of its lost ground.

Whats my call?? The longer term Stochastics could show some strength until 4th April. The price could climb to between 5500 and 5700, where some of the volatility will be removed. The bottom BBs will then be in a position (alignment ) to commence the next protracted downswing to 4500-4400.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Kauri said:
A lotta Talking Heads in the media saying that the bottom is in... so might be a good time to pull on the old pair of stubbies again ....
Cheers
...........Kauri
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Hey Kauri,

I gather stubbies are shorts? Not beer?

Is there anything else you base this on? eg. usd and gold turning in the last 48 hours? Or just longs pressure running out?

thx.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Broadway said:
Hey Kauri,

I gather stubbies are shorts? Not beer?

Is there anything else you base this on?
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Yes there is another vital parameter he uses, the budgie! What's s/he saying Kauri? Still securely anchored to the perch/off its food?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

On the sentiment polls I have read, bulls are now turning above the bears, but still not a strong differential. I beleive there is still some room for this rally to run. Perhaps back to the 5600-5800s, though I dont like making price predictions, as I prefer to trade price action.

These little rallies are normally short and steep! Before the next downleg in the crash cycle begins.

Im in on 5 small caps. Doing ok at the moment, but a sharp turn (not out of the question with this volatility), could change that very quickly.

I will hope to see more positive divergence from the Russell 2000 tonight, it has been going very strong lately!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
What was Wavepickers next date for a top or bottom? 21 March? Maybe a bottom. Would be good to see an update of the analysis. Doesn't seem to be going quite to plan, unless the plan was rejigged considering the market action and we have new dates for a high, or low ....:confused:
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Sorry for the late reply. Refer to the following post re your querry:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=270106&postcount=3082

Will try to update soon, been busy at present testing a new trading system developed for FX markets(and later applicable to all markets) with Apocalypto(Joseph).
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I dont have volume for indicies, any VSA guys here who do and can run some analysis?

From my observation, volume on most stocks in this recent little rally has been very thin! Suggesting specialists are out of the market and will probably shake out quiet a few more weak hands sometime soon.......

No real high volume on low spreads following the last downturn on the charts I have read. Maybe only one or two bars, but nothing indicating much entry by professionals.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Guys, something just occured to me... end of quarter (EoQ)... does this mean anything?

Do fund managers play hokey pokey with the SPI to meet a certain portfolio goals?

I'm just wondering if EoQ would see some large price manipulation happening on our little aussie index? I dont have access to intraday data going back that far to see if EoQ is of importance...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

From my understanding, end of quarter doesnt make much difference. Each quarter does, but only on tripple witching week, which has already passed.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

MRC & Co said:
From my understanding, end of quarter doesnt make much difference. Each quarter does, but only on tripple witching week, which has already passed.
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I would think that there may be some importance at the end of the quarter, as some hedge funds would crystallise their incentive fees on a quarterly basis. However, not all funds have their incentive fees paid out each quarter, and I would imagine most of them to have their own strategies anyway. So, the overall net result would probably end up to be quite close to zero anyway if they want try to manipulate the market at the end of a quarter.
 
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