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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

Hi chilliaa,

The SPI contract trades overnight. You can follow it with a delay from futuresource.com.

Here is the link to the March contract on an hourly chart.

http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=APS H8-SFE&o=&a=V:60&z=800x550&d=medium&b=bar&st=

I hope it works.

Use the choices below to choose a different contract or month or timeframe. Because the info is free it is delayed by 20 mins during trading hours, but appears to be live sometimes in afterhours, don't know why.

bye

brty
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Yeah they all vary but the first 24 hour Futures open around 8 am Monday(forex Futs, Globex ) and the last close about 8 am Saturday morning Aussie time(late Friday arvo New york). nothing trades over the weekend.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

What happens today?Rise or fall?Futures up 4.
Financials to win or lose?
Is our sentiment with the DJIA with a modest rise of .18% or with the broader Nasdaq(-1.6%) and S & P 500(-.9%).Lehman and Deutsche started the buying when the S & P dipped under January lows.
Should be an up week really with the Fed tomorrow,the Visa ipo on Wednesday and options and futures expiration on Friday(USA times).
 
Re: XAO Analysis


wonders how many will hold positions over easter in this turmoil - a bit of selling wed arvo and thurs perhaps
 
Re: XAO Analysis

treefrog said:
- a bit of selling wed arvo and thurs perhaps
Click to expand...

Or maybe short covering! The SPI March Contracts Open interest is continuing to rise into expiry. SPI PUT/Call is also rising, lots of hedges to be trimmed??
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Sassa and TH, I think are correct.

Seasonality and sentiment indicators from my observation, would lead me to beleive this will be an up week.

Is it just me? Or does TA generally seem to be worthless as of late? EW, triangles, head and shoulders, double bottom reversals, the list goes on. How many have been right, in comparison to how many have been wrong? Just something to think about.

Cheers
 
Re: XAO Analysis


No I was just putting up the other side of what could happen into the long weekend. As per the SPI thread end of week tend to rise recently as the shorts have this market by the you know what.

As for TA not working. You are kidding aren't you. The most basic of TA patterns, ie lower lows lower highs, have lead the way since Dec 07.

I think there are many that have been right on this current downtrend. Its the bottom pickers who have thrown TA out the window in spite of a huge trend that have been wrong.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

MRC & Co said:
Is it just me? Or does TA generally seem to be worthless as of late? EW, triangles, head and shoulders, double bottom reversals, the list goes on.
Click to expand...

I agree, I think we need some order and stability in the markets to really use E.Wave and patterns to their full potential.If the US tanks it seems patterns and a lot of the analysis can be discarded, next to useless.

Or at least only trade stocks with patterns that are going with the trend, ie, down.
 
Re: XAO Analysis


I use both F/A and T/A and have found that unexpected fundamentals are always always trumps - forget T/A in those situations. Even a strong LT trend can be quickly reversed for individual shares with a surprize ann. but composites usually require several announcements to confirm a turn and therefore tend to turn slowly as in current situation
of course the 87 crash was an exception just a large bang! "you hear that! what was it?" " your share portfolio just fell off the top shelf and scattered on the floor mate - but a lot landed straight in the bin, so that was lucky eh?"
 
Re: XAO Analysis


Well, basic TA is definatley still worth its weight in gold

Up, down, sideways trends.

Have you read this thread, especially recently? TA coming from all angles and has rendered itself completely useless.

I am not a bottom picker, price movement and consolidated strength are still required for me to move long.

Time will tell. Maybe my sentiment and seasonality indicators will proove as useless as chart patterns and all the other TA analysis (which I agree, can be very useful generally). I am by no means a TA basher.

Porper, that is why intermarket analysis is also required. Check out VantagePoint (expensive, but the best in the business at intermarket analysis).

Treefrog, I agree, fundamentals always have the capacity to change any kind of technical trend.
 
Re: XAO Analysis


MRC & Co in the current situation not sure what else matters...... but that the primary trend is down, nothing has really changed from when this was posted
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Current trend is down and I am a firm beleiver in the trend is your friend! Dont get me wrong!

I am also very interested in all these responses of negativity.

Let me point out a few other indicators, not including TA.

Put/call ratio rising yeh? Sentiment very bearish. Ever heard the saying "dont fight the fed", i.e. IR cuts are historically followed by some kind of rally.

Triple witching week, i.e. Stock options, stock index options and stock index futures expire this week. Two days preceeding public holidays are more often up than not.

Again, listen to what I am saying: I do not try to pick the bottom. Price strength and consolidation are required first, this feeds back into my theory "trend is your friend"!

No doubt, I could well end up like wavepicker and be completely wrong, but at least we are putting our analysis out there, which only helps in the evolution of your trading style and can catch out things that are wrong so we can learn from there.

Time will tell, and if the market does not move up this week, it wont bother me because I wait for price action.

Interesting to see divergence between NASDAQ/S&P and the Dow.

Also interesting to see a rally into the close. Who was buying in and why?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Hi all,

The primary trend is UP. It has been for the last 150+ years.

A secondary trend maybe down.

But then again a tertiary trend may be occurring in the same direction as the primary trend.

It all comes down to the timeframe you are trading.

For the primary trend to be down, we would need 20-30 years of declining prices before it changed. Will we get them?; I don't know for sure, however I have more confidence in the system than many here.

bye

brty
 
Re: XAO Analysis

MRC & Co said:
that is why intermarket analysis is also required. Check out VantagePoint (expensive, but the best in the business at intermarket analysis).
Click to expand...


MRC, what is intermarket analysis when it's at home. ? How do they analyse, as in what method ?
 
Re: XAO Analysis


I take it you are long the market then brty - sorry to hear that
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Porper said:
MRC, what is intermarket analysis when it's at home. ? How do they analyse, as in what method ?
Click to expand...

When its at home, what do you mean?

Intermarket analysis is done by using comlpex neural networks to compare and contrast all inter-related markets that impact on eachother. It is very much TA, but on a broad scale with highly sensitive computer software.

I dont understand the exact mathematics behind it, but have read the book by Louis B Mendelsohn "Trend Forecasting, with Technical Analysis" and very much agree with the basic principles. My cousin has traded for a living off this program alone for years and swears by it. I personally, would want to use it in addition with other methods.

Damn expensive though, so I would get the book, give them a call and read the website before even considering buying.
 
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