XAO Technical Analysis

IFocus · 12 March 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Sam as I was reminded the other day H&S patterns are a reversal patten, to be of significance they need to be at the top of a move or trend. Conversely a reverse H&S are at the bottom of a move or trend.

As a pattern they may fail as often as work just depends on the market cycle look at BHP or XMJ on a weekly chart lovely H&S's.

For the pattern to work price must break below the base normally a line drawn across the lows in this case the 5224 area then the pattern is confirmed and price is expected to move to a projected distance.

Hope this helps

sam76 · 12 March 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

IFocus said:
Sam as I was reminded the other day H&S patterns are a reversal patten, to be of significance they need to be at the top of a move or trend. Conversely a reverse H&S are at the bottom of a move or trend.

As a pattern they may fail as often as work just depends on the market cycle look at BHP or XMJ on a weekly chart lovely H&S's.

For the pattern to work price must break below the base normally a line drawn across the lows in this case the 5224 area then the pattern is confirmed and price is expected to move to a projected distance.

Hope this helps

Cheers, I kinda get it but I must admit it is a bit past my bed time now. I'll have another look at this tomorrow and pull out one of those trading books I haven't got around to reading yet.

Thanks for you help IFocus

korrupt_1 · 12 March 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

IFocus said:
korrupt that rally on your chart shows a nice head and shoulder

aye.. sure does look like a H&S on the 1hr... didnt see it until u pointed it out....

Based on the charts... i'd give it a higher probabilty it will move lower... I might speculate a trade to go short on a break lower of 5220... targets to maybe 5170 and stops at 5270 (R/R of 1:1 - worth the risk?)...

i'm going cross-eyed looking at charts all night...

sam76: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/head-shoulders.asp

sam76 · 12 March 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

"The "head-and-shoulders" pattern is believed to be one of the most reliable trend-reversal patterns."

Ahhhhhh......

Got it.

Cheers for the link korrupt_1.

I'll have to check out the rest of that site - very convienient

ta

Trembling Hand · 12 March 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

IFocus said:
For the pattern to work price must break below the base normally a line drawn across the lows in this case the 5224 area then the pattern is confirmed and price is expected to move to a projected distance.

Yes, thats the important point.

IFocus said:
korrupt that rally on your chart shows a nice head and shoulder

Only problem with that chart is thats its a 24 hour SPI chart. 60% of the price bars are outside the cash market and mostly just worthless noise. have a look at the complete lack of volume. As you can see from the same chart with only Cash times makes a big dif.

korrupt_1 · 12 March 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

mostly just worthless noise

It may be outside the cash-markets and the volume is pathetically low... but I wouldn't say its worthless... it WILL define the cash-market's rough opening quote (infact I sometimes trade the 'gap' between SYCOM quote and cash-market opening quote - easy few points for scalping)

If you monitor the nightly moves, you will be able to maximise your trades. It gives a complete chart of the market... Also the SPI IS a 24hr market... so why not track it on a 24hr basis? (or 22hrs considering the breaks and resets)

treefrog · 13 March 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

note that even the "forever bull"s are quietening the last few weeks but still enough optimistic bull posts to get a chortle or two

assuming the market is bullish (uptrend) for the green arrows and bearish (downtrend) for the red arrows, I am having difficulty deciding which way the market is going atm but I'll keep working on it.

theasxgorilla · 13 March 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

treefrog said:
assuming the market is bullish (uptrend) for the green arrows and bearish (downtrend) for the red arrows, I am having difficulty deciding which way the market is going atm but I'll keep working on it.

Sarcasm treefrog?

austek · 13 March 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

TF
the chart tells the story. Was up a lot and down a bit.
Now it's down a lot and (I would expect) up a bit.

sam76 · 13 March 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

The falls in that chart seem to be getting steeper.

Awesomandy · 13 March 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Looking at the green arrows, the lengths are getting shorter and shorter, and it's getting steeper and steeper. At the same time, the red arrows are getting steeper as well. IIRC, a number of dead bulls have the same pattern.

zarfius · 13 March 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

A bit of a beginner question.

If the head and shoulders pattern is a classic sign of trend reversal from a bull market to a bear market, is there a similar sign for a bear market to bull?

Real1ty · 13 March 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

zarfius said:
A bit of a beginner question.

If the head and shoulders pattern is a classic sign of trend reversal from a bull market to a bear market, is there a similar sign for a bear market to bull?

I am into fundamentals but my understand of a H&S is it is a trend reversal but as far as i can tell from the daily, there is no H&S.

I'm only in FAR for Senegal, so any weakness for me will be another buying opportunity.

Trembling Hand · 13 March 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

zarfius said:
A bit of a beginner question.

If the head and shoulders pattern is a classic sign of trend reversal from a bull market to a bear market, is there a similar sign for a bear market to bull?

Same but upside down.

korrupt_1 · 13 March 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Hi Zarfius,

An inverted H&S would give the opposite... (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inverseheadandshoulders.asp)

However, another trend indicator used to show that the market has taken a new direction is the Moving Average. Some professionals use the 200day and 50day MA to determine if a new trend has started. (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/movingaverage.asp)

zarfius · 13 March 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Thanks guys

I've leaned more in the past week reading these forums than I did reading half a dozen books.

Many years to go, but well on my way

treefrog · 13 March 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

zarfius said:
A bit of a beginner question.

If the head and shoulders pattern is a classic sign of trend reversal from a bull market to a bear market, is there a similar sign for a bear market to bull?

you may be looking for something like is detailed in this link

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku...._analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_b

MRC & Co · 13 March 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

treefrog said:
you may be looking for something like is detailed in this link

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku...._analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_b

Stockcharts are gold!

I have a few charting books and cant say ANY are nearly as good as stockcharts. Not even Guppy!

Just my opinion.

H&S (including inverted) is pretty easy to understand, just go to that link.

IFocus · 13 March 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Well sounding like a stuck record but the buyers disappeared again today as we got the follow through from yesterday.

Todays close was 1/2 a point below Jan low.

Now we sit on the edge........consolidation or....

Interesting how we have been leading the US a little could be due to bad news after US close while they have good news during their open funny that, any way the S&P over night rejected the box nicely.

MRC & Co · 13 March 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Yeh, I think we will test the sub 5000s over the next few trading days (until perhaps the rate cut). However, interesting to see how the market reacts to a US rate cut. Has it already been factored in? Will it be enough to cause a bit of a rally?

XAO Technical Analysis

IFocus

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sam76

korrupt_1

sam76

Trembling Hand

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korrupt_1

treefrog

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theasxgorilla

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austek

sam76

Awesomandy

zarfius

Real1ty

Trembling Hand

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korrupt_1

zarfius

treefrog

MRC & Co

IFocus

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