XAO Technical Analysis

[Porper]

Re: XAO Analysis

I, for one, declare the market BORING. I've gone from having up to 6 trades a day to 1 a week - if that.

It's as much fun as fishing in a swimming pool...

Not sure how you see it as boring Roland, we are having wild swings at the moment, today on the ASX was good stuff for day traders, same as DOW last night.Having said that you need to be trading the Blue chips for the volume.

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

Not sure how you see it as boring Roland

Yeh, I actually find it exciting, a bit too exciting! Im finding the hours I sleep per day are diminishing exponentially!

Still beating the index, but my money would have been better served in the bank over the last several weeks and thank god half of it was, until the last two days.............

Though, as most think, that their luck (I mean skills ), are going to turn around soon, ha ha, heres hoping!

 

[chilliaa]

Re: XAO Analysis

wonders how many fundamentalists are factoring in the $A rise to parity - can't say I've noticed a lot of co's adjusting their forecasts for it - they simply have not / did not accept it was happening.
Many forecasts still appear based on the US$/$A exchange of 76c so future earnings may need to be adjusted up to 20% for some.
Of course, all co's are affected differently by the exchange rate changes - some even benefiting

Who really cares if the $A rises to parity, what does up will come down. I think its more important to look at the long term average rate of the $AU when doing fundamental analysis. The rest is just market noise, at least for the long term fundamental investor.

 

[treefrog]

Re: XAO Analysis

Who really cares if the $A rises to parity, what does up will come down. I think its more important to look at the long term average rate of the $AU when doing fundamental analysis. The rest is just market noise, at least for the long term fundamental investor.

ILU cares (or maybe the shareholders who don't get a div care) with management blaming the high $A - one of many to come I fear:
down 14% today on the announcement after the market already factored in a 27% drop in the last few months prior to today's ann. - can't see how the LT fundies would be happy somehow
as I pointed out - this is significant and inadequately factored into many projected eanings, but hey, in a forum like this its OK to shoot the messenger.

 

[Real1ty]

Re: XAO Analysis

Who really cares if the $A rises to parity, what does up will come down. I think its more important to look at the long term average rate of the $AU when doing fundamental analysis. The rest is just market noise, at least for the long term fundamental investor.

Well considering the A$ is going to have a big effect on a large amount of Australian companies, i would suggest everyone would "care"

I don't believe it will get to parity, but i certainly won't be doing what you suggested and look at long term A$ averages, as we are not working with averages now or in the immediate future.

I take on board your point, for a long term investor, but even then, some consideration needs to be considered, as we are dealing with a very different scenario to what we have in the past, hence the averages are not quite as relevant as in the past.

 

[roland]

Re: XAO Analysis

Not sure how you see it as boring Roland, we are having wild swings at the moment, today on the ASX was good stuff for day traders, same as DOW last night.Having said that you need to be trading the Blue chips for the volume.

Well, it's boring 'cause I am stuck all in the red with no cash. My "wild" swings are generally 1 step forward and then 2 steps back. I'm not playing indexes because I haven't learnt how.

I'm just having to sit here and watch my holdings go sideways - guess I'm doing something wrong.

Just waiting now for some dividends so I can play again

 

[Porper]

Re: XAO Analysis

Well, it's boring 'cause I am stuck all in the red with no cash. My "wild" swings are generally 1 step forward and then 2 steps back. I'm not playing indexes because I haven't learnt how.

I'm just having to sit here and watch my holdings go sideways - guess I'm doing something wrong.

Just waiting now for some dividends so I can play again

You are not alone Roland, it is extremely hard to make a profit in this market unless you are a seasoned trader and have been through this type of market before.Not many around.

Staying out of the market is a stategy i.m.o if things aren't working out.The good times of trend following will be back.Preserving capital is everything.Profits are a secondary thought and a bonus in times like these for most of us.

 

[roland]

Re: XAO Analysis

You are not alone Roland, it is extremely hard to make a profit in this market unless you are a seasoned trader and have been through this type of market before.Not many around.

Staying out of the market is a stategy i.m.o if things aren't working out.The good times of trend following will be back.Preserving capital is everything.Profits are a secondary thought and a bonus in times like these for most of us.

Thanks for the comments, food for thought. I was looking good before the sub prime fallout, up about 40K for the year, now I am minus 50K. Just makes me feel stupid.

I do feel a little less stupid when I see my super, and my Colonial Managed funds suffereing just as much. Then, on the other hand, I could be even more stupid for having everything tied to the market.

Time to bring up the 100 year graph of the market to make it all seem worthwhile again.

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: XAO Analysis

Well, it's boring 'cause I am stuck all in the red with no cash. My "wild" swings are generally 1 step forward and then 2 steps back. I'm not playing indexes because I haven't learnt how.

I'm just having to sit here and watch my holdings go sideways - guess I'm doing something wrong.

Just waiting now for some dividends so I can play again

There are still really good charts out there. Admittedly they are getting harder to find... but there are some. Lots of range trading and dip buying opportunities if you are into that side of things. Time to paper trade some different methods perhaps?

Anyway, back to the XAO... I don't know how you could see this as anything but a bear flag/ pennant at the moment. You would have to expect some kind of big move from here either way though surely.

 

[Porper]

Re: XAO Analysis

Time to bring up the 100 year graph of the market to make it all seem worthwhile again.

Know how you feel, my super is abysmal but with well over 20 yrs to retirement, we should be ok, feel for those that are retiring now though.

100 year graph will look good

By the time we are 150 yrs old this will seem like a correction the size of a pin head .

 

[treefrog]

Re: XAO Analysis

ILU cares (or maybe the shareholders who don't get a div care) with management blaming the high $A - one of many to come I fear:
down 14% today on the announcement after the market already factored in a 27% drop in the last few months prior to today's ann. - can't see how the LT fundies would be happy somehow
as I pointed out - this is significant and inadequately factored into many projected eanings, but hey, in a forum like this its OK to shoot the messenger.

add STO to the A$ casualties

 

[wavepicker]

Re: XAO Analysis

Following on from the analysis in the following posts:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=258028&postcount=2843

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=258028&postcount=2843


Back then is was assumed Fixed Cycle point red 5 was completed on the 7/2/08. The markets have meandered sideways since then putting in a minor false break low yesterday and as such cycle point red 5 was yesterday. (Unlike the US Indiced whereby this came when expected)

There was slight error in the spacing between the yellow and green lines on the right hand side of the fixed cycles chart. As such the high(red cycle point 6) expected in approx mid March, should have actually read 20-25th March.

Also because the market is trending down, the low came slightly later compared to when the market was in an uptrend and the highs come slightly earlier. Ofcourse when the market is trending up it's the opposite, the highs come late and the countertrend lows come early. This is known as left translation and right translation, and must be taken into consideration doing such analsysis. For more info see 1st attachment below(from Walter Bresserts site)

In those last posts I made mention of the target dates, 10/11th March and 21 March. Nothing has changed, and although our approximate cycle point date for red 6 is now 20-25th March I am still banking on 10/11 March being crucial(as countertrends should finish early because we are now in a downtrend.) and also because the 11th March has cropped up everywhere I have looked in individual stocks.
However still have 21st March as an alternate just in case it decides to go for another run.

The EW chart in the second attachement is the XJO 8Hr chart. It is a zoomed up chart of the earlier analysis I made. In my opinion blue wave b finished yesterday and the market is about to have upward breakout. Three waves always unfould against the one larger trend. We have had an pink abc up from the 22/1/08 low which I have labelled blue wave a. A zigzag down pink abc with intervening pink wave b contracting triangle, these(contracting triangles) precede the last move in a sequence(pink wave c finishing yesterday) and the move down is usually a thrust usually the same height of the widest point of the triangle. I beleive that completed in the selloff yesterday.That then completes major blue wave b.


So where to now? In the initial analysis I mentioned a target of 6244pts. That was a probable choice based on a perfect squaring of both price and time (0.618 in price and in time from the high). In the current chart if we take the height of major blue wave a and add it onto the low we had yesterday(bluw wave b), we get a target of approx 6244 pts which is another confluence.

To answer chops question from the "Elliott Wave Analsysis Thread" of is the move down from the peak impuslsive(ie are we now in a wave 4?) ? I don't beleive this to be the case(but ofcourse admit that I can be wrong), however will stick with the current count above as the top count for now

Cheers

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

Just a quick question wavepicker, wouldnt it be a better idea to do this analysis on the US indicies?

Just looking at that symetrical triangle that is forming in the XAO (very close to the apex now, has to break one way or the other), but wont that break be determined by movements in the US? I mean, if it goes up, we could see a breakout here, if it falls, we could see a breakdown? (though I aknowledge the graphs generally show some simlarity over the longer term).

Cheers

 

[korrupt_1]

Re: XAO Analysis

... a nice rebound up for at least till mid-March... Watch out for commodities in mid-March then.

I recall reading a thread somewhere that says that March 11th is a keydate according to some 'way-out-there' technical study.... was something to do with Gann,Guppy or EW or something.... (??? )

So people... mark the week that March 11th falls on in your diary... could be wild times!

 

[wavepicker]

Re: XAO Analysis

Just a quick question wavepicker, wouldnt it be a better idea to do this analysis on the US indicies?

Just looking at that symetrical triangle that is forming in the XAO (very close to the apex now, has to break one way or the other), but wont that break be determined by movements in the US? I mean, if it goes up, we could see a breakout here, if it falls, we could see a breakdown? (though I aknowledge the graphs generally show some simlarity over the longer term).

Cheers

have done the analysis on both the XAO and SP500. In fact most of the analysis links back to the SP500,and points to the same conclusion for both. It's not a matter of index following another.

Tha market will what it has to do. The current medium term cycle is up till that March date(s). The longer term cycle is down till April(will show at a later time). When the TIME is up the trend will change.

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

have done the analysis on both the XAO and SP500. In fact most of the analysis links back to the SP500,and points to the same conclusion for both. It's not a matter of index following another.

Tha market will what it has to do. The current medium term cycle is up till that March date(s). The longer term cycle is down till April(will show at a later time). When the TIME is up the trend will change.

Interesting, so much for decoupling huh!

Thanks for that wavepicker, good to see someone actually put in some timelines, cant say I could possibly do it on my techniques, I just look for long-term fundamentals and go day by day as far as the technicals.

Cheers

 

[wavepicker]

Re: XAO Analysis

I recall reading a thread somewhere that says that March 11th is a keydate according to some 'way-out-there' technical study.... was something to do with Gann,Guppy or EW or something.... (??? )

So people... mark the week that March 11th falls on in your diary... could be wild times!

March 11th and 21st I made reference to in an earlier post last week. Both are important but currently favouring 11th with 21st as alternate. Will have to weigh it up as time approaches, in which case wave structure(pattern of the trend) will give valuable clues)

21st March is also am important date with many Gannists

Cheers

 

[josjes]

Re: XAO Analysis

March 11th and 21st I made reference to in an earlier post last week. Both are important but currently favouring 11th with 21st as alternate. Will have to weigh it up as time approaches, in which case wave structure(pattern of the trend) will give valuable clues)

21st March is also am important date with many Gannists

Cheers

I favour March 11. March 21 is Good Friday. March 18 is the Fed meeting for a rate cut. The past 3 Fed rate cut, the market always in advance consistently rallied. Following each meeting, there is a bearish pattern of lower stock-market highs which, after usually one more big bounce, leads to a lower low.

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: XAO Analysis

To answer chops question from the "Elliott Wave Analsysis Thread" of is the move down from the peak impuslsive(ie are we now in a wave 4?) ? I don't beleive this to be the case(but ofcourse admit that I can be wrong), however will stick with the current count above as the top count for now

Cheers

Makes a lot of sense to me WP.

I thought we may have tested those previous lows at ~6200 on the sharp move up, but it didn't happen.

6244 is near enough to the 61.8 retrace I have of the total move down thus far. ~6150 is the 61.8 retrace of the "mug" count that I have. An ABC move from this correction would also get it close enough to these areas to be valid.

Any break down and I would favour the high 4700s personally.

But... I am net long... just playing individual stocks on their merits... so maybe there is something in that. A lot of key stocks on support, or near enough to, that I can't see a reason for them to go through. Either way, I'm prepared, as hopefully all are.

But thanks heaps for the detailed revisit, it is much appreciated.

Cheers,
Chops.

 

[korrupt_1]

Re: XAO Analysis

<-- this is how I feel about the SPI ATM...

Sorry for a completely useless posting... but I am really really !@#$%^&** with these wild 100+ point swings.. I mean what has FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGED?