Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

XAO Technical Analysis

Jump to new
Re: XAO Analysis

And on the 11th day the market said, "I shall smite thee that have gone long."

Well that's one for the record books, taking out the 10 consecutive day decline in 1990. This is the first time in 24 years (that's all the data I have) that the XAO declined 11 days in a row. Any takers for tomorrow? Poll on my blog for any that are interested.
 

Attachments

  • XAO consec declines.jpg
    XAO consec declines.jpg
    62.2 KB · Views: 170
Re: XAO Analysis

I fixed the problem. Changed the colour settings on my screen. Tomorrow will be green no matter what.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Wow - and today was the biggest decline over the 11 day period.

With no lead from the US overnight, I see no reason for a relieving rally tomorrow. We follow blindly us Aussies and if there is no lead we fumble around looking for the light switch. I think it will be down but not 160 pts - maybe 30 pts? If the Dow tanks Tuesday night then it could be capitulation day. All time All Ords records is 13 days straight. We are on track. So while everyone is losing money, at least we will be a part of history.

I have just enacted my rescue plan - enter BHP and wait for those bear rallies. Hope I don't have to wait 2 years or however long it takes for sub prime to recede from investors consciousness.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

dhukka said:
Any takers for tomorrow? Poll on my blog for any that are interested.
Click to expand...

Nice presentation of the losses... it really depicts the health of the AU Market.

Going with the pattern, I'd say tomorrow will be down between 0.1%- 0.5%. More bloody sheeding!!!!

But lets hope that's NOT the case... I pray to God that "on the 12th day, God awards all those that went long with huge gains and good fortune" :)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

.. :partyman: and on the 12th day of Christmas
my banker said to me... :band

Cheers
.........Kauri
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Well, you were right MFP, but - as stated by someone else, my annoyance was only with your "arrogance" & untactful joy at the markets falling apart!

That's it, I'm joining the muppets. At least a nice term deposit is guaranteed gains, & not losses! :eek:

I just hope tomorrow gives me a nice exit opportunity :(
Whether it's up, or down - I'm out.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I predicted a fall today, but even I never expected these falls... wonder when the blood shed will stop!

Seeing blue-chip stocks like BHP -4.4%, CBA -4.6%, NAB -2.9%, MQG -3.7%, RIO -7.9% just makes me wonder if this selling is logic-based or just band-wagon jumping because everyone else is doing it? The old adage "buy when there's blood in the streets" seems to really apply here. Aussie banks have clearly stated they have LITTLE or NO exposure to US sub-prime loans, yet get beaten down to oblivion based on what? And resources were up in London and NY trading overnight, and our top resource stocks decline over 4%, WORSE than the banks?

Anyone bold enough to say this is becoming ridiculously overdone and it's time to put your money in? How much further/longer can this madness go on for? 11-straight days of declines is just ludicrous!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

M34N said:
I predicted a fall today, but even I never expected these falls... wonder when the blood shed will stop!

Seeing blue-chip stocks like BHP -4.4%, CBA -4.6%, NAB -2.9%, MQG -3.7%, RIO -7.9% just makes me wonder if this selling is logic-based or just band-wagon jumping because everyone else is doing it? The old adage "buy when there's blood in the streets" seems to really apply here. Aussie banks have clearly stated they have LITTLE or NO exposure to US sub-prime loans, yet get beaten down to oblivion based on what? And resources were up in London and NY trading overnight, and our top resource stocks decline over 4%, WORSE than the banks?

Anyone bold enough to say this is becoming ridiculously overdone and it's time to put your money in? How much further/longer can this madness go on for? 11-straight days of declines is just ludicrous!
Click to expand...

Heh, with a couple more US banks probably reporting major losses in the coming days, I can see this going on for the rest of the week :(

Why bother chasing a dividend if the capital in the stock is going to be slapped around :(
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Nyden said:
Heh, with a couple more US banks probably reporting major losses in the coming days, I can see this going on for the rest of the week :(

Why bother chasing a dividend if the capital in the stock is going to be slapped around :(
Click to expand...
What's worse, I wonder if even the Fed's will lower by more than 0.5% in the US? Imagine that's all they drop by, probably see another massive sell-off. IMO the only thing to stimulate the market is going to be a bigger cut than that, and I don't see that happening.

Then there's the threat here with our reserve looking at raising rates! Madness, banks lifting rates on their own accord without reserve bank help then the reserve raising rates again on top of that.

Is the world going mad? lol :)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

M34N said:
What's worse, I wonder if even the Fed's will lower by more than 0.5% in the US? Imagine that's all they drop by, probably see another massive sell-off. IMO the only thing to stimulate the market is going to be a bigger cut than that, and I don't see that happening.

Then there's the threat here with our reserve looking at raising rates! Madness, banks lifting rates on their own accord without reserve bank help then the reserve raising rates again on top of that.

Is the world going mad? lol :)
Click to expand...


Apparently it is!

I'm going to go mad with it :eek:

I'm staying clear of the markets until irrational exuberance returns, as opposed to irrational fear.

I was hoping for a sucker rally this week to exit on!! It isn't going to happen :( Should have sold out last week.

The scary thing is; there is no safe sector. Even gold stocks have fallen 2-3%!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Nyden said:
Well, you were right MFP, but - as stated by someone else, my annoyance was only with your "arrogance" & untactful joy at the markets falling apart!

That's it, I'm joining the muppets. At least a nice term deposit is guaranteed gains, & not losses! :eek:

I just hope tomorrow gives me a nice exit opportunity :(
Whether it's up, or down - I'm out.
Click to expand...

I apologised for my insensitivity several posts back.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

mfp said:
I apologised for my insensitivity several posts back.
Click to expand...

Heh, mate there really isn't a need for that though! It's we stubborn suckers who keep holding on, of course I'm glad for you! :D I only wish I had those kinds of fortunes.

On the bright side, at least capital losses don't expire!!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

im with you Nyden, out tomorrow as well
im quite late to rush to the exit but first time this type of decline has happened to me - i thought little ol' me hoping and hoping would stop the declines
My recent new found thinking is that there are more falls to come on the all ords and based on my assumption that:
1. the US will drop further after poor or below expectation 4th qu results from banks and other companies.
2. the fed will cut by 0.5, the market will want 0.75, and down she goes again


as an aside, in general would house prices come off by a poorly performing sharemarket?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

M34N said:
Anyone bold enough to say this is becoming ridiculously overdone and it's time to put your money in?
Click to expand...

Overdone? It's burnt to a crisp!!!

Looking at a couple of graphs it looks like we're down almost 18% from our high. DOW looks to be only down around 15%. It seems totally lacking in logic that we would be falling at a faster rate than the problem itself!! I get the feeling today that we have just gone too far now. Not to say it won't continue, but my feeling is that any big players sitting on the sidelines must be getting very itchy indeed.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Nyden said:
Apparently it is!

I'm going to go mad with it :eek:

I'm staying clear of the markets until irrational exuberance returns, as opposed to irrational fear.

I was hoping for a sucker rally this week to exit on!! It isn't going to happen :( Should have sold out last week.

The scary thing is; there is no safe sector. Even gold stocks have fallen 2-3%!
Click to expand...

Yeah, even the gold stocks are beaten down badly. Though most of money are into pure gold and silver bullion ETF. So they haven't moved much at all despite the 11 straight days decline.

So anyone have the statistics for when was the last 12 consecutive decline days?

"Statistically" speaking and even if we ARE in a Bear market, a technical rally will occur to relieve the oversold condition.

And I bet that the bulls will take this as a signal that they will continue to buy on the way down.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Nyden said:
Apparently it is!
.

The scary thing is; there is no safe sector. Even gold stocks have fallen 2-3%!
Click to expand...
Apologies that this is in the XAO thread, however I think the comments a warranted.


The plunge across all sectors is predominately due forced selling on margin, CFD etc, which creates further fear/panic: often the profitable transations are sold to plug the other holes. This behaviour has not finished yet. If the FED cuts rates over market expectations, yes equities will rally, however gold stocks should out perform any market rally due to the impact on the US$ and it's inverse effect on the gold price. My suggestion is setting up a Gold stock watch list with the Sep 30 prices set in the cost basis coulun, it may assist in attempting to recognise value and help you concentrate your individual research. Food for thought perhaps in what are testing times on all investors.


Cheers



BT
 
Re: XAO Analysis

stockwhizben said:
im with you Nyden, out tomorrow as well
im quite late to rush to the exit but first time this type of decline has happened to me - i thought little ol' me hoping and hoping would stop the declines
My recent new found thinking is that there are more falls to come on the all ords and based on my assumption that:
1. the US will drop further after poor or below expectation 4th qu results from banks and other companies.
2. the fed will cut by 0.5, the market will want 0.75, and down she goes again


as an aside, in general would house prices come off by a poorly performing sharemarket?
Click to expand...

Yes it would be in my humble opinion a natural progression for this to effect the realestate market, Low interest rates then stella market returns helped people push up RE prices beyond fair and logical prices - both these ingredients are now under a full frontal assault.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

The IG futures currently for the
ASX200,,
Dow..
Nikkei..
FTSE100..
German30..

Cheers
.........Kauri
 

Attachments

  • pic6.gif
    pic6.gif
    3.3 KB · Views: 160
Re: XAO Analysis

Bush Trader said:
Apologies that this is in the XAO thread, however I think the comments a warranted.


The plunge across all sectors is predominately due forced selling on margin, CFD etc, which creates further fear/panic: often the profitable transations are sold to plug the other holes. This behaviour has not finished yet. If the FED cuts rates over market expectations, yes equities will rally, however gold stocks should out perform any market rally due to the impact on the US$ and it's inverse effect on the gold price. My suggestion is setting up a Gold stock watch list with the Sep 30 prices set in the cost basis coulun, it may assist in attempting to recognise value and help you concentrate your individual research. Food for thought perhaps in what are testing times on all investors.


Cheers



BT
Click to expand...



Yeah. I believe aside from a few short rallies, we're going to keep going down :(

Any room in the bear den lads? :D
World's ending, fundamentals, credit, money is worthless, gold is king, banks going to go bankrupt... is that about the gist of it?
 
Top