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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

Nyden said:
Yeah. I believe aside from a few short rallies, we're going to keep going down :(

Any room in the bear den lads? :D
World's ending, fundamentals, credit, money is worthless, gold is king, banks going to go bankrupt... is that about the gist of it?
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If you believe that then sell and go short. There are many clichés such as "A bull market carries very few passengers" or "if you are going to buy are Bull then by a young one as the older ones often result in less calves" etc. I don't know if you were trading back in '02-03 however these were also frustrating times, however stick to your investment fundamentals as you have outlined below.


Cheers


BT
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Anyone watching SYCOM?

Just ticked over at 5480. :eek::eek:

This is surprising even me.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

sassa said:
SPI 200 futures down 81 for opening tomorrow as at 7.50pm.
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Yes was going to say, it's now -105 at 7:55PM

Starting to get worried now.

Dow futures down 239... things are looking very grim indeed.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

doctorj said:
Capitulation? Or should I swing by Perth Mint and pick up some of their finest on the way home from work? :)
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Dunno. Maybe another corpse floating to the surface we don't know about yet? Seems strange with a US holiday today.

Just guessing.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Looks like Europe is taking the lead from Asia at the moment.

FTSE and DAX down -116 and -243 respectively.

DOW -266
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Porper said:
Most people think the same as you Chops.Usually the crowd are wrong so could be time for a quick hard bounce.

Yes some people will get burnt and yes, maybe even ruined but to be honest it is all about protecting capital and with the strong performance over the past few years people should be able to get out without losing too much.

We can still trade but must limit losses with stops or be prepared to "invest" with a longer time frame in mind.There is no doubt that we will be higher than we are now in a few years at most.
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I really don't think insults like that are necessary. I'd be mortified, fearing for my life to be honest, if everyone thought like me. Wouldn't be enough chemists in Australia for everyone. :D

All that has been necessary of late, is to be just in front of the herd. In fact, I remember messaging ithaeekret about feeling the US markets were delaying the inevitable. The next night, started this run. I called this breakdown partly anyway, alongside Willow's charts.

Contrarians have been smashed. They have been buying US financials for months. There is way too much power in the herd at the moment to fight it.

The futures are telling a tale. If there is a capitulation on open, and if it looks like coming back, I will close my shorts, hang on to my longs. Opposite for the opposite etc. So was I just a part of the herd... or were they following my tracks? You tell me!

I worry because we have a situation where short term traders, swing traders and dip buyers (not to mention all the buy and holders piping up on this page) may all be stuck in long positions, and looking to close them all at once. We may witness a long squeeze on a magnitude we have not seen before here in a long time.

And you full well know there is no way of controlling risk, or protecting capital in these potential black swan events. So that's why I worry. I imagine things gapping stops en masse is not pleasant to witness. But we know most people here don't use stops, full stop. Which is even more frightening.

I think it's rich someone espousing risk management, who holds INL.

The next level is the August intraday low. Futures are holding that at the moment by the looks. I'm not sure how valid that support is though. Would like to see another gap down and rally tomorrow. Friday's obviously wasn't it... Really just need SOME evidence of a bottom. I have a long term negative bias. But I see this level of support smashing as not helpful or healthy IMO.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I hear a few damp washers hitting the floor, maybe enough to warrant a bounce at some stage soon, but untill I can hear the unmistakeable sound of soggy towels being thrown into the ring I'll keep looking for the short side...
Cheers
..........Kauri
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Kauri said:
I hear a few damp washers hitting the floor, maybe enough to warrant a bounce at some stage soon, but untill I can hear the unmistakeable sound of soggy towels being thrown into the ring I'll keep looking for the short side...
Cheers
..........Kauri
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Kauri, your metaphors & rumors always keep me entertained :)

I unfortunately believe any rally will be very short-lived, I've sat on 3 days of losses waiting for this rally, that will struggle to recover one or two of the days :p:

Any rally we have will be stopped dead by another US bank reporting another major loss, or something of the likes.

By the way, when does your budgie go upside down? :D


Edit;
The SPI 200 seems to be recovering a little? Was at 120 I think, now at 88...let's hope it continues that trend to a slightly less shade of red!!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

chops_a_must said:
I really don't think insults like that are necessary.

I think it's rich someone espousing risk management, who holds INL.
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I can't see that I insulted anybody, obviously certain members are emotional to say the least.

As for INL, yes I am holding a loss but as you or anybody else for that matter doesn't know how many how can you possibly comment on my risk management skills.

As for your comment that you can't mitigate risk in this market.............absolute rubbish.CFD's give guaranteed stop losses for one and how about trading in very small amounts until the volatility diminishes.

All the people patting themselves on the back for being out of the market because they saw it coming should have been shorting..........with GSL.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Now that we know what fear really is, any rally would make us quick to sell way below previous resistance levels. Many will see the coming relief rally as an exit door too.

I fear the bulls reported missing the last 11 days have been slaughtered.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/rconrad/2008/0119.html

Quite a good article given the circumstances. Keep the emotion out of it. That extends equally to bull and bear markets.

The question we all ponder now is what is the rational course of action to take? I think the author's point on not sweating on 'timing the market' is a good one. So too is the fact that the indicators are pointing in different directions - equity values down, commodity prices up, inflation up, umemployment down, house clearances still up etc etc. No wonder nobody knew which direction to go!! The only change now is that the market has become extremely risk averse and is shooting first, asking questions later. This now extends to pricing in a US recession even though nobody knows for certain the extent of this. 0% growth is a recession - good companies will still be highly profitable given we have had record profits reported in the last 12 months.

I take further solace in the author's point that a rapidly declining ASX 200 will provide future 'slack' for capital appreciation. It was a great bull run and there should still be a commodities supercycle over the longer term (IMO off course). Time to make rational decisions boys & girls. As my father always said, 'don't cry over spilt milk'.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

chops_a_must said:
Contrarians have been smashed. They have been buying US financials for months. There is way too much power in the herd at the moment to fight it.
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Just wondering, what are your basis that the "contrarians" have been buying US financials for months?

The well known contrarians that I know have been SELLING US financials even BEFORE the subprime crisis.

ok...I think I got it. You meant after the correction, the sentiment was bearish and being bullish was regarded as a contrarian. That does make sense. :) hehe

But the original contrarians were right all along anyway.
 
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