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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

We have not had the climax volume day yet heavy but no spike because buyers haven't stepped up or committed yet I think a little lower still but I wont have money on that opinion.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Some more useless statistics;

Looking at data from 1950, the record for consecutive day declines on the S&P500 was 12, back in April/May 1966 shown below. On two other occasions the S&P500 fell 11 consecutive days, November 1969 and October 1971.

4/22/1966 92.27 -0.2%
4/25/1966 92.08 -0.2%
4/26/1966 91.99 -0.1%
4/27/1966 91.76 -0.3%
4/28/1966 91.13 -0.7%
4/29/1966 91.06 -0.1%
5/2/1966 90.9 -0.2%
5/3/1966 89.85 -1.2%
5/4/1966 89.39 -0.5%
5/5/1966 87.93 -1.6%
5/6/1966 87.84 -0.1%
5/9/1966 86.32 -1.7%
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
I'm going with those who claim a turnaround early next week. :cool:

There's still good support yet. Until 6018.9 is comprehensively broken, I'm not too worried about roaming bears. :rolleyes:

They'll probably have to go hungry fo a bit longer yet. :D
Click to expand...

Well, timing may have been a bit out, :eek: but I think there are stronger signs that we are closer to a turnaround now. Apart from the fundamentals that Aus is in far better shape than the US (even after allowing for some decline in exports) the standard deviation channel from the previous highest high is penetrated and I woud expect a bounce to bring it back into trend, similar to last August.

There are a few days penetrating the 61.8 fib (6018.9) however the weekly candle spreads it, so I don't think it is comprehensively broken yet, until we get a weekly candle completely under the 61.8 fib and extending below 100%.

Since the uptrend from 03 seems to be broken, I'm also going with a change of trend from the August low, because that seems to be the signal that things were going to slow down a bit. So far I think the new trend for maybe the next few months or year, until the US settles down, will be more sideways with a good chance of being slowly up.

I would say we were due for a change of trend since we broke out the top of the post 87 deviation channel last April. But we are still above the mid line of the 28 year trend channel.

In summary I am leaning toward the XAO coming back to around 6,000 shortly... if it goes the other way and we get a weekly candle below the 100 fib, then I will have to conceed a bear market... maybe.

Ok bears come and get me... if you can! :D
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Hey Wiskers, great charts and info. What do you use for your charts?
Why did the share market basically take off from about 2003? Will this just be the third bounce off the 5600-ish mark, as previously in March and August?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

heredownunder said:
Hey Wiskers, great charts and info. What do you use for your charts?
Click to expand...

Thanks heredownunder, but if my judgement is not right the're not worth a cracker.

That chart is by Incredible Charts.

Why did the share market basically take off from about 2003?
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Basically, China and India started taking more resources from Aus and growing their economy faster and the US picked up a bit.

Will this just be the third bounce off the 5600-ish mark, as previously in March and August?
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Thats what I reckon... er, hope.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:
Holy Crap! Whose side are you on?

The first 5 or 6 points would guarantee world economy megadoom!
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Wayne, just going back to this, by your comment I get the feeling you have assumed my points were supposed to be a bullish solution to the credit crisis. Far from it really. It's simply my vision of where we are headed. And in the long term, I see Australia's economy going ok.

In the short term obviously, certain things are going to occur in an attempt to get the US out of trouble. They will try, and probably only delay real pain, but there's a chance that short term mechanisms may soften any crash, and give time for more robust policies to be put in place to set them up for a more stable long term. It is more inevitable that there will be a great deal of short term pain. No doubt. It's obviously happening now, and in the UK with housing. But, not in Australia. Yet.

There is certainly a lot of detail missing in my broad brush predictions, but that's the way I see it going. Perhaps I need to expand on these things a little more.

It's certainly not a naive blindly bullish attempt to paint an easy solution to the systemic problems of the US and other western materialistic want it now nations.

Would be interested to see your vision of the next 40 years. :) In 10 words or less....
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
Wayne, just going back to this, by your comment I get the feeling you have assumed my points were supposed to be a bullish solution to the credit crisis.

Far from it really. It's simply my vision of where we are headed. And in the long term, I see Australia's economy going ok.

There is certainly a lot of detail missing in my broad brush predictions, but that's the way I see it going. Perhaps I need to expand on these things a little more.

It's certainly not a naive blindly bullish attempt to paint an easy solution to the systemic problems of the US and other western materialistic want it now nations.

Would be interested to see your vision of the next 40 years. :) In 10 words or less....
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I think I'd need to construct a rather complicated flow chart, as there are literally dozens of scenarios that "could" develop. Some areas I have really no clue as to how they will develop, eg, the impact of retiring boomers, peak oil/energy supply, decoupling etc would need to be thought out on an if - then basis.

The thing I am certain of is that western gu'mints will continue to seek out short term, politically expedient solutions to long term problems, sacrificing long term economic viability. China will kick the west's @ss because of this.

The thing to bear in mind is that China has a grudge against the west and will sink us if they can... but they'll use us first.

If we could imprison as Keynesians we might have half a chance. But we're on the slippery slope IMO.

Perhaps Oz will be useful as a quarry and may fair better, but that depends which way the flow chart flows.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:
Perhaps Oz will be useful as a quarry and may fair better, but that depends which way the flow chart flows.
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That's more than 10 words Wayne!! :)

We're already a quarry aren't we?

Yes, agree on the China comments, but they only have themselves to blame in the main for the fall from power. If they had have been a expansionist, colonising nation in the 1400s we'd all be speaking Mandarin probably. Maybe they were just biding their time.....

Looking forward to the flow chart!! :)

Hmmm, is this XAO analysis? Sorry folks.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers.
Great chart, thanks for that contribution.

So my conclusion from that is that we could fall to 4,200 on the XAO and still be in the longterm uptrend.
Works for me.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

dhukka said:
In the interests of garnering opinions of ASF members on whether the XAO will decline 11 straight days or not and some shameless self promotion. Please visit my blog and vote in the poll on the top right. fundamentalanalyst
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Results from my poll are in, thanks to the fifteen people who voted, (sorry 14 I voted myself). Anyway 10 think the XAO will decline today and make it 11 straight declines. 5 are looking for the XAO to close higher.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
That's more than 10 words Wayne!! :)

We're already a quarry aren't we?

Yes, agree on the China comments, but they only have themselves to blame in the main for the fall from power. If they had have been a expansionist, colonising nation in the 1400s we'd all be speaking Mandarin probably. Maybe they were just biding their time.....

Looking forward to the flow chart!! :)

Hmmm, is this XAO analysis? Sorry folks.
Click to expand...

Kennas other than Japan China has never had an out look of of world dominance they have a record of building rabbit proof fences and looking inwards maybe this time will be different
 
Re: XAO Analysis

dhukka said:
Results from my poll are in, thanks to the fifteen people who voted, (sorry 14 I voted myself). Anyway 10 think the XAO will decline today and make it 11 straight declines. 5 are looking for the XAO to close higher.
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Sticking my neck out here, but I think maybe today might surprise a few people - some big sell orders being well bought into. Big daily range back to positive finish? Buying the XJO, CBA (dividend play forgotten?), OXR today.
 
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