XAO Technical Analysis

[mfp]

Re: XAO Analysis

Well, we'll see on Monday mfp. You putting a dollar on a 170 point loss? I think that's what you're saying?

I think we may touch around 5650 (-150) and bounce. The cat will be unconscious and maybe climb to around between 6000-6200 in the coming weeks until it settles into a stuper for the following 12 months ish.

On the other hand, the market will do anything it damn well likes!!

No i never said 170 point loss, that's pushing it, and no i'm not putting a dollar on anything! Lost enough of those already. But it is interesting you think -150 is a possibility for Monday and i'm talking complete nonsense for suggesting -100.

 

[Nyden]

Re: XAO Analysis

No i never said 170 point loss, that's pushing it, and no i'm not putting a dollar on anything! Lost enough of those already. But it is interesting you think -150 is a possibility for Monday and i'm talking complete nonsense for suggesting -100.

Yes, but he is also expecting an afternoon rally.

I don't believe we'll see a loss that size anyway though.
Resources are all up, gold is up, positive lead from other world markets in those sectors; so I don't expect to see much red there, if anything I hope to see green.

& If that is the case, I really can't see banks/retailers pulling us down 100pts, especially if we see green in other sectors.

 

[wayneL]

Re: XAO Analysis

This market is itching for a rally too. Unless more corpses float to the surface Monday, she goin' up.

But the open will certainly be in the red... and plenty of corpses about to bob up.

 

[mfp]

Re: XAO Analysis

Yes, but as I stated before MFP; that is far too logical. You are placing intellect on the market itself, as if it is an entity that needs to now 'make up' for losses...

(Once again, to repeat myself; this is nonsensical logic. By that argument, we're due in for some gains from the rallies we missed over the last 11 days!)

It does not work that way, selling is not some kind of exact science, where suddenly people sell because they should have on Friday. They aren't going to suddenly stop selling because we've now equalized with the Dow, either. They sell from their own interpretations of news, & their own fears of what the dow will do next.

As stated; these buyers / sellers, do not need to worry about what the Dow will do Monday night, because it's closed. This means there will be a lot less fear in the markets; & we may see some fundamental buying, or technical buying based on some expected rally : - especially on the resources front.

I agree with you Nyden, it is definitely not an exact science. Therefore, are you also saying that our market could actually fall "harder" than the US market? Or does the fact it is not an exact science only work in our favour? For example, rather than mention the rallies we missed over the last 11 days, what about the rallies we've had over the last 5 years that the US hasn't? Don't forget the XAO has piled on about 154% (about 2700 to 6850) from its recent bear market low to bull market high, while the DOW only rose about 102% (about 7000 to 14160).

 

[Nyden]

Re: XAO Analysis

I agree with you Nyden, it is definitely not an exact science. Therefore, are you also saying that our market could actually fall "harder" than the US market? Or does the fact it is not an exact science only work in our favour? For example, rather than mention the rallies we missed over the last 11 days, what about the rallies we've had over the last 5 years that the US hasn't? Don't forget the XAO has piled on about 154% (about 2700 to 6850) from its recent bear market low while the DOW only rose about 102% (about 7000 to 14160).

There is reasoning there though. We've gone up so hard partly because of the resources boom. Quite a large % of our index is resources based, & the price of commodities has absolutely soared in the last 5 years.

& Furthermore, we're talking about short-term trends here, not 5 years back. You're mentioning us missing the "deserved" losses of Friday, & I'm mentioning missing the deserved gains of only a few days before then. What, we're allowed to miss gains from Tuesday, but not the losses from Friday? Pfft.

Of course it's possible for it to fall harder, but there would be no fundamentals behind it, or even fear behind it.

The fear factor is partly negated by the fact that we're 'safe', at least until Wednesday (from a plummeting dow)

On the fundamental front, and technical front; many are saying we're oversold, & due for a bounce. Once again; I mention resources. All base metals up, FTSE, & other world markets; showed green for many resource-based stocks. Did I mention a fair % of our market is based on that? I can't foresee a 100pt drop without resource stocks coming to the anti-party


Furthermore, unless you're short in the market MFP, it isn't very nice to wish for people to continue to lose more money. : (Little sarcasm there) Perhaps it's just part of the 'lost' communication of the internet, but you're coming off sounding a little arrogant. You were fortunate enough to pick a good time to sell, & you now seem convinced that since you're out, the markets must now fall to all time lows?

Or does the fact it is not an exact science only work in our favour?

Sorry, couldn't resist! :

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

Thursdays low wont be taken out Monday.
Great opportunity day Monday.

 

[mfp]

Re: XAO Analysis

Furthermore, unless you're short in the market MFP, it isn't very nice to wish for people to continue to lose more money. : (Little sarcasm there) Perhaps it's just part of the 'lost' communication of the internet, but you're coming off sounding a little arrogant. You were fortunate enough to pick a good time to sell, & you now seem convinced that since you're out, the markets must now fall to all time lows?

If you were out of the market would you wish for it to continue to fall or reverse and go up? All time lows!! Now that would be nice.

 

[Nyden]

Re: XAO Analysis

If you were out of the market would you wish for it to continue to fall or reverse and go up? All time lows!! Now that would be nice.

It may be overly selfless of me, but I always wish for the market to go up. I always wish for people to make money. If I sold out of the market, & it rallied hard for 11 days straight; although I would kick myself, I would of course be very happy for those still holding.

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

No i never said 170 point loss, that's pushing it,

Yes, sorry, you said a 120 point turn around on the rumour and then the US went down .5% which whould mean .5% for us which is about 28 points which equals 148 points....

And, I said that we may see 5650, as a bottom, and then a bounce, as mentioned above. Not that this was the final close.

Thursdays low wont be taken out Monday.
Great opportunity day Monday.

I think we're a big chance for the low, but I think it will be a great opportunity too.

However, the bears are, overall, in control right now. Damn you Wayne!!!

 

[wayneL]

Re: XAO Analysis

However, the bears are, overall, in control right now. Damn you Wayne!!!

Yeah but we're doing all the bloody work at the moment, get off your @ss you bulls, we need a break!

 

[numbercruncher]

Re: XAO Analysis

My prediction for Monday is down 100 to 150 at close.

But I wish all involved the very best

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Yeah but we're doing all the bloody work at the moment, get off your @ss you bulls, we need a break!

OK.

Short term interest rate cuts to calm and provide.
Institutions ordered to halt rate rises.
Policies to change ARM and fix easy lending principles.
Failures of morgage lending arms and liquidity distributed to continue solvency.
Institutions with failing business units linked to easy credit/sub prime sack CEOs, change policies, and grown brains.
US citizens stop buying the latest V8 pick up, every year, and start using public transport.
China continues to grow at 10% pa for the next 15+ years and overtakes the US as the world's greatest economy around 2030 ish.
India follows China very closely and they become the world's economic and military super powers by the year 2040.
Australia provides India and China with the bulk of their resources over the next 20 years, supporting our economy, so that any short-mid term perceived economic fallout from the US fails to effect economic growth in Australia out to 2040 ish.
High probability of a world war concentrated in the Middle East/W Asia with 'superpowers' staking claims on energy. Depending on time frame, the US may fail to a Russian/Chinese/? coalitian - who does Australia side with? - cultural ties will probably rule
Around 2050 ish, BRIC slows down and Australia's resources become less important due to world growth and alternatives to building and construction.
Australia is in deap doo doo....

Sorry if I left out anything, but until Chindia starts to subside, I think the Aussie economy will be long term up.

 

[GreatPig]

Re: XAO Analysis

Another thing to consider. After the last two sharp down runs the turning point was signalled by a red bar with a long tail, as we had on Friday.

In both cases it didn't jump up the very next day, but did start to rally after 2 or 3 (trading) days. Of course the second one didn't last long, but was a small opportunity.

GP

 

[numbercruncher]

Re: XAO Analysis

Sorry if I left out anything, but until Chindia starts to subside, I think the Aussie economy will be long term up.

Maybe China doesnt need to Subside, maybe it wasnt as big as claimed in the first place ?

WASHINGTON - THE size of China's economy is overestimated by some 40 per cent based on the most current measures, but it is still the world's second-largest, the World Bank said yesterday.

China still ranks as the world's second-largest economy with more than 9 per cent of world production, but that was lower compared with 14 per cent under the old methodology.

http://www.straitstimes.com/Free/Story/STIStory_187873.html


Doesnt bode so well for the Decoupling club, havnt heard much from them lately ?

 

[wayneL]

Re: XAO Analysis

OK.

Short term interest rate cuts to calm and provide.
Institutions ordered to halt rate rises.
Policies to change ARM and fix easy lending principles.
Failures of morgage lending arms and liquidity distributed to continue solvency.
Institutions with failing business units linked to easy credit/sub prime sack CEOs, change policies, and grown brains.
US citizens stop buying the latest V8 pick up, every year, and start using public transport.
China continues to grow at 10% pa for the next 15+ years and overtakes the US as the world's greatest economy around 2030 ish.
India follows China very closely and they become the world's economic and military super powers by the year 2040.
Australia provides India and China with the bulk of their resources over the next 20 years, supporting our economy, so that any short-mid term perceived economic fallout from the US fails to effect economic growth in Australia out to 2040 ish.
High probability of a world war concentrated in the Middle East/W Asia with 'superpowers' staking claims on energy. Depending on time frame, the US may fail to a Russian/Chinese/? coalitian - who does Australia side with? - cultural ties will probably rule
Around 2050 ish, BRIC slows down and Australia's resources become less important due to world growth and alternatives to building and construction.
Australia is in deap doo doo....

Sorry if I left out anything, but until Chindia starts to subside, I think the Aussie economy will be long term up.

Holy Crap! Whose side are you on?

The first 5 or 6 points would guarantee world economy megadoom!

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Holy Crap! Whose side are you on?

The first 5 or 6 points would guarantee world economy megadoom!

Maybe I missed a few changes in direction there.

Perhaps linked around the policies, V8s and war.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

Another thing to consider. After the last two sharp down runs the turning point was signalled by a red bar with a long tail, as we had on Friday.

In both cases it didn't jump up the very next day, but did start to rally after 2 or 3 (trading) days. Of course the second one didn't last long, but was a small opportunity.

GP

One of the things that continues to amaze me is that when we reach these extreme oversold levels way to many people/novices (that's just a guess) look to the US for direction. But these reversals start in Asia not the US.

21st of Nov 05 we stopped going down and rallied the US a week later

14th of June 06 we stopped going down and rallied the US the same night.

16th of August 07 we made a low. the US did the same that night.

People still look to the US for direction without the evidence that the US is what you should be looking at.

 

[wayneL]

Re: XAO Analysis

One of the things that continues to amaze me is that when we reach these extreme oversold levels way to many people/novices (that's just a guess) look to the US for direction. But these reversals start in Asia not the US.

21st of Nov 05 we stopped going down and rallied the US a week later

14th of June 06 we stopped going down and rallied the US the same night.

16th of August we made a low. the US did the same that night.

People still look to the US for direction without the evidence that the US is what you should be looking at.

Blame it on the medja muppets.

 

[dhukka]

Re: XAO Analysis

In the interests of garnering opinions of ASF members on whether the XAO will decline 11 straight days or not and some shameless self promotion. Please visit my blog and vote in the poll on the top right. fundamentalanalyst

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Re: XAO Analysis

I'm completely out of the market and loving watching this slaughter unfold, so for me this is not only positive thinking, but I would say realistic thinking.

yep agree side lines seem like the best place to be right now, I am only trading Forex so I know what u mean by enjoying the show!