XAO Banter Thread

[Valued]

The news right now seems to be very bullish. The Motley Fools is still preaching about ASX6000 and that this is just a minor pause and the bull movement is still strong.

The price action looks weak to me. It looks like the XAO is at the very least ranging (and it looks like if it is ranging it's reached the top of the range and swinging down). At worst it's signifying the end of a trend. The prior higher low has been taken out and it's fell short of a new high. If this were a stock you probably wouldn't be jumping on to go long here.

I am at least short term bearish (next week or two) on the XAO and I am trying to get out of the habit of shorting and going long stocks in the same index. I don't think this makes sense. I have only two long trades in the ASX right now and I am out if they don't open higher. I really don't want anything to do with long positions right now. Of course I am putting my money where my mouth is and taking out shorts. If I think going long is wrong, going short must be right. We get the advantage of seeing the US trade first though, yay for long weekends.

 

[qldfrog]

At least, two people should be happy today:
after the last two sessions falls in the US,both Valued should be paper richer tonight on our shorts.
I really see this as the start of the correction we need to have and a 10% correction (not that severe) should bring the XAO to 4700 or so.
Let's see.

 

[nulla nulla]

The recent high is lower than the previous high, are we heading for a lower low?



Or will it taper into a pennant?

 

[malagets]

The recent high is lower than the previous high, are we heading for a lower low?

View attachment 56693

Or will it taper into a pennant?

We are headed for a lower low and we will test the GFC low
again in the years ahead. Up move of the last 5 years has .been a correction of the larger trend which is down.
Same thing happened in the Dow post the crash of 29, the Nasdaq crash of 2000, the Nikkei 225 crash of 1990, and the Shanghai Composite Index now.

Cheersl

 

[Logique]

The recent high is lower than the previous high, are we heading for a lower low?
View attachment 56693
Or will it taper into a pennant?

I'm wondering about this too. The medium term isn't flash technically, but I'm not as bearish as Malagets, it can still reverse in the near term.

 

[db94]

if it does make a lower low itll be around 5000 (psychological and trend support). If it breaks this level the next support is around 4600, which is worrisome
also cant see it forming a pennant considering it broke through the short-medium term trend support. It would have needed to bounce at 5200 IMO

 

[clayton4115]

what do you make of last nights rally on the US market, has rallied well over the past two sessions, just a mini rally before the continuation of a major decline or the uptrend still strongly intact?

I think we are looking at some sort of a correction coming up.

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

Did the market open late today?? Showing it opened an hour later than usual on my charts.

 

[skc]

Did the market open late today?? Showing it opened an hour later than usual on my charts.

No it opened on time as per usual. There's some problem with data on Iress this morning but I am not sure whether that's related to ASX or not.

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

No it opened on time as per usual. There's some problem with data on Iress this morning but I am not sure whether that's related to ASX or not.

Yeah something is up with my esignal data, maybe they were watching the olympics and forgot to boot up this morning.

 

[Valued]

@qldfrog

Just saw this now. I actually didn't short as much as I was going to on the ASX since I decided to short the US markets instead. In hindsight I could have shorted both but I am at work during the day so US markets can be easier if I don't want to sleep. Since I was using proper risk management it didn't exactly make me rich haha but I had a large and fast draw down at the start of the year and I gained it all back plus a bit extra in just a few days. I shorted the S&P before the biggest down day and then went long on the bottom and caught the up move. I also had some stock positions too.

It's good to be back in the black for this year.

 

[skc]

Yeah something is up with my esignal data, maybe they were watching the olympics and forgot to boot up this morning.

The message on Iress is coming through to say it's an ASX issue. I am aware that Spark and eSignal are both affected... and probably others.

 

[VSntchr]

Yep, my yahoo feed was delayed an hour too.

 

[skc]

Yep, my yahoo feed was delayed an hour too.

To the Pairs finder... but that happens a lot. It's like the guy who switch on the data likes to sleep in 3 times a month...

 

[qldfrog]

@qldfrog

Just saw this now. I actually didn't short as much as I was going to on the ASX since I decided to short the US markets instead. In hindsight I could have shorted both but I am at work during the day so US markets can be easier if I don't want to sleep. Since I was using proper risk management it didn't exactly make me rich haha but I had a large and fast draw down at the start of the year and I gained it all back plus a bit extra in just a few days. I shorted the S&P before the biggest down day and then went long on the bottom and caught the up move. I also had some stock positions too.

It's good to be back in the black for this year.

sadly I went to black and now back to red after last week two great jumps (on horrendous data in the us but discounted as it was winter.....with asx following) but I have learnt not to try to make sense of the market movements: market is always right..so right now now I have lost..Still would not bet much on a real bull and still waiting for a nice drawback in the coming months
will see

 

[skc]

The message on Iress is coming through to say it's an ASX issue. I am aware that Spark and eSignal are both affected... and probably others.

ASX introduces new afternoon tea break...

Actually it's a technical glitch. Oh well. I am getting a coffee anyway.

 

[clayton4115]

i was wondering what was going on !

 

[tinhat]

This conversation has me thinking that to operate as an effective and efficient marketplace the ASX would only need to hold two auctions say twice a day; once in the morning and again in the afternoon. That's one auction too many per day already. Of course, less brokerage and fees but I can't think of any rational reason why one or two auctions per day wouldn't be just as effective at establishing price than anything else.

 

[skyQuake]

This conversation has me thinking that to operate as an effective and efficient marketplace the ASX would only need to hold two auctions say twice a day; once in the morning and again in the afternoon. That's one auction too many per day already. Of course, less brokerage and fees but I can't think of any rational reason why one or two auctions per day wouldn't be just as effective at establishing price than anything else.

There's already midday and 2pm Auctions:

https://www.asxonline.com/intradoc-...vices/documents/communications/asx_035733.pdf

 

[cynic]

There's already midday and 2pm Auctions:

https://www.asxonline.com/intradoc-...vices/documents/communications/asx_035733.pdf

That would seem to make sense. Would I be correct in surmising that the midday auction is the close of the morning session and that the 2PM is the open of the afternoon?