XAO Banter Thread

[nulla nulla]

And don't be surprised if the market comes to it senses
And started selling off again.

Most re-actions are part knee jerk and over the top, so I would expect some innitial settling. Whether/when the Dow will come to its senses after running hard for four years on smoke and mirrors is impossible to predict. Better to trade the volitility than buy and hold, imo.

Slower bleeding to death seems more palatable.

A lot are probably already doing this in Australia since the all ords retraced from 5400. Holding and hoping and trying not to look at the spectre of the US trillion dollar debt hanging over global markets. Convincing themselves "Its just a temporary retrace, a minor correction.....right?"

 

[nulla nulla]

If the early indicative opening prices are anything to go by, there could be a bit of foreign investment money pulled out of Australian equities today.

 

[Trembling Hand]

If the early indicative opening prices are anything to go by, there could be a bit of foreign investment money pulled out of Australian equities today.

why?

 

[skc]

If the early indicative opening prices are anything to go by, there could be a bit of foreign investment money pulled out of Australian equities today.

SPI expiry today... early match prices meant naught.

 

[PinguPingu]

Was expecting more of a fade, guess one of these days the poor XAO needs to hold on to some decent gainz.

 

[nulla nulla]

If the early indicative opening prices are anything to go by, there could be a bit of foreign investment money pulled out of Australian equities today.

Showing a 5% drop in a fair few shares around 9:00am, improved by 9:30am and pretty much at par with yesterdays close at opening time.

why?

If the early indicative opening prices were reliable there would have been a sell down. Only reason I could think of for a sell down was big fund managers reallocating their funds out of the all ords. Has been going on for a while now relative to the aud$ v's the us$, particularly noticeable in the A-REIT sector.

SPI expiry today... early match prices meant naught.

True, particularly when there is a flurry of action in the opening bids immediately before open.

 

[coolcup]

Good call. Announcement that quantative easing would be tapered from us$85 million per month to us$75million per month gave certainty to the market an the instant reaction was confidence.

Million or billion? *puts little finger towards mouth*

If the early indicative opening prices are anything to go by, there could be a bit of foreign investment money pulled out of Australian equities today.

Match prices at 9am are irrelevant.

 

[nulla nulla]

Million or billion? *puts little finger towards mouth*.

Sorry Austin, probably a senior moment, should read billion.

Match prices at 9am are irrelevant.

Worth looking at in conjunction with depth volume. Gives an idea of what is being dumped before the pro's close the gap. Taken some very quick day trades from time to time watching the lead up to open.

 

[notting]

Gives an idea of what is being dumped before the pro's close the gap. Taken some very quick day trades from time to time watching the lead up to open.

Pros are still asleep at 9 am.
They wake up at about 2pm when all the testosterone trading has well and truly finished, look back to the openings, see the corrective sanity balancing come back in from 11:30 till 2:30, then assess and trade the close.
Morning action is irrelevant until it's in the rear vision mirror.

 

[skc]

Worth looking at in conjunction with depth volume. Gives an idea of what is being dumped before the pro's close the gap. Taken some very quick day trades from time to time watching the lead up to open.

It was index option expiry yesterday! The match up price changes from all red to all gree back to all red with +/- 5-10% all the time.

It's not worth looking at what so ever.

 

[skyQuake]

It was index option expiry yesterday! The match up price changes from all red to all gree back to all red with +/- 5-10% all the time.

It's not worth looking at what so ever.

Except the once a decade or so event where someone stuffs up

 

[nulla nulla]

It looks like all the fund managers and brokers came back from holidays on Monday. At the 9:00am meeting the bosses must have delivered the "Its the 13th of the month and our revenue is zero" speech followed by the "Get on the phone and make it happen" speech. Yesterday they sold off the banks and mining, probably turned over enough buy/sells to kick start the client billings for the year. Nah, wouldn't happen would it....?

 

[qldfrog]

am I the only one seeing the situation as surreal???
as I see it, the situation now is as crappy as during the GST, nothing fixed...
But the US with the massive injection seems economically a bit better.So fair for them to have a share market booming:
after all, their earning might justify the values
But here, jobs are falling everywhere INCLUDING the ones never listed, the PM/BA and other consultancy workers
These positions never record in any statistics they will never join centerlink but the money they do not get will not be taxed nor spent and make the economy run.
Is it just because I am in QLD and see the effect of the mining crash in first place????
So how can the ASX with already strech valuation even pretend to follow a bit the US?
It sghould have done it earlier when the mining boom was a boom, but not now.
I know TD are not returning much but so far, you get your investment back; I would not put it in the share market now
Anyway, just a rant after a long day

 

[beachlife]

all true, but the compulsory super that the govt says is better managed by the funds has to be put somewhere while we wait for the next crash.

 

[nulla nulla]

all true, but the compulsory super that the govt says is better managed by the funds has to be put somewhere while we wait for the next crash.

....and it has to be turned over a few times to generate fees/income for the compulsory fund managers.

 

[qldfrog]

and now
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/weak-sunbeam-appliance-sales-hurt-gud-as-profit-falls-31-20140121-3168r.html
after the crash of SUP (I might miss the codeL supercheap auto etc)
is that the sign of an healthy econony or one trending up???
and today asx is up

 

[tinhat]

and now
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/weak-sunbeam-appliance-sales-hurt-gud-as-profit-falls-31-20140121-3168r.html
after the crash of SUP (I might miss the codeL supercheap auto etc)
is that the sign of an healthy econony or one trending up???
and today asx is up

GUD is not a good bellwether of the state of the consumer economy. It does highlight some of the issues facing consumer goods makers and importers/distributors though.

One being cheap Chinese generic goods are eroding brand value. Do you know what make of oil filter your mechanic uses in your car? Do you care? Supercheap Auto distribute Ryco filters almost exclusively by the way (Ryco is a GUD brand) but I imagine that retail sales make up a tiny proportion of the market.

Another being that the two big retailers are squeezing and eroding the margin and value of independent brands.

GUD has a poor portfolio of consumer brands. Look at the Oats brand. What major point of differentiation is there in an Oats branded broom or bucket as opposed to any other broom or bucket you might buy from Big W or Bunnings. When you shop at Bunnings do you even care or notice what the brand name is of the mop or broom you are buying. Their brands are of little value.

Same with Dexion. Any Chinese manufacturer can knock off and knock out pallet racking shelving. There is little value to the "Dexion" brand and in fact it has become a generic term for a type of pallet racking.

Sunbeam is the only consumer brand in the GUD stable that is probably worth anything as a brand yet GUD concede that they have dropped the ball in terms of product development and keeping current with consumer requirements. Look at the brands that are doing well in kitchen appliances. Kenwood mixers cost a fortune. Nespressos are converting instant coffee drinkers in droves, and private school mums are flocking to the Thermomix cult forking out $2,000 a pop for a German made blender. GUD tried to take over Breville but the ACCC stopped it. Thank goodness for Breville.

GUD has been a bit of a dud business with poor quality brands that has not been well managed. Retail and consumer goods has been with its challenges over the years but some other companies have done well (with some setbacks) over the past few years including SUL, RCG, BRV and even JBH has made a come-back.

 

[qldfrog]

...

GUD has been a bit of a dud business with poor quality brands that has not been well managed. Retail and consumer goods has been with its challenges over the years but some other companies have done well (with some setbacks) over the past few years including SUL, RCG, BRV and even JBH has made a come-back.

so you believe your last mentioned codes [SUL being the one I wanted to mention initially and had disappointed result a few days ago], will meet earning expectation????
I seriously doubt it!!!
time will say but I see that as a telltale sign
the banks might make nice profits as every dog and his cat is taking a loan for an IP, but what else???

 

[tinhat]

GUD is not a good bellwether of the state of the consumer economy. ...some other companies have done well (with some setbacks) over the past few years including SUL, RCG, BRV and even JBH has made a come-back.

so you believe your last mentioned codes [SUL being the one I wanted to mention initially and had disappointed result a few days ago], will meet earning expectation????
I seriously doubt it!!!
time will say but I see that as a telltale sign
the banks might make nice profits as every dog and his cat is taking a loan for an IP, but what else???

qldfrog, I don't know. I don't hold shares in any of the company's I mentioned. I do regret selling out of my RCG shares too early though and they went upwards and onwards. I had SUL on my watchlist a few years ago but I took my eye off it and it got away from me. I haven't analysed any of these businesses in detail and I don't have an opinion on whether SUL will meet earnings guidance. I did go to a Supercheap Auto store the other day to buy a Ryco fuel filter (ironically) and I did not that compared to say Repco the service was pretty non-existent.

 

[qldfrog]

one point I need to note, I am not a long term investor when mentioning this for me a 20% fall would ideally be a sell at top then buy at bottom.
I do not do buy and hold.
All this just to say that a pretty solid company might still be on my sell list if I expect the market to fall, and I am ready to buy some dud when I expect the market to rise;
I bought some NCM at 7ish when they fell but have no long term trust in their future.
I see an economy feeling sick here at least in qld with no sign of acknowledgement anywhere so my when the asx goes up.