XAO Banter Thread

[nulla nulla]

Why is that?

With the current euphoria pushing the all ords higher, I was looking for some equities price spikes driven by settlements (which has happened in the past) however it didn't happen. There were some price jumps on open (Thursday) but they may have been driven by the release of annual reports. Unfortunately most of them faded through the day.

It's just the XJOs expiring tomorrow, nothing interesting ever happens on the day, although it is interesting how the index has rallied to the call open interest over the past week and a bit, coincidental perhaps......

Certainly not lately. I wonder if this isn't a reflection of the number of people trading options these days compared with the past?

 

[Tyler Durden]

Am I the only one who read the title "Shares close highest since June 2008" at SMH and felt a shiver run down my back?

 

[satanoperca]

Am I the only one who read the title "Shares close highest since June 2008" at SMH and felt a shiver run down my back?

Like most things in the investment world, logic doesn't apply.

If the share market is doing so well, why do we have historically low IR's?

Can we apply inflation to the XAO index ? So we need another 10% in real terms for it to reach s high above 2008? Maybe that answets my first question.

Cheers. Inflation in Shanghai seems to be flying with a beer costing me $12 Au.

 

[nulla nulla]

......Cheers. Inflation in Shanghai seems to be flying with a beer costing me $12 Au.

Nah, they just saw you coming. "foreign devil, charge him double".

 

[Trembling Hand]

felt a shiver run down my back?

Why? What is the concern?

 

[CanOz]

Cheers. Inflation in Shanghai seems to be flying with a beer costing me $12 Au.

Where was that? What brand of beer?

At big bamboo a large pint size carlsberg should be about 40 rmb....

 

[Wysiwyg]

Anyone guessing below 5000 again?

 

[Wysiwyg]

Interesting to see if buyers are willing to risk the weekend hold leading to market close today.

 

[nulla nulla]

Interesting to see if buyers are willing to risk the weekend hold leading to market close today.

When trading opened today we were holding two (2) parcels of shares in GPT. The first was sold in the open for $3.85 realising a capital gain of 1.13% and the second parcel sold when GPT hit $3.88 also realising a capital gain of 1.13%.

We are out of the market now, at 100% cash. Mrs Nulla reckons there is going to be a major correction and has decreed we will sit it out for now or limit our trades to day trading small parcels. Might even go see a movie or two next week.

 

[PinguPingu]

Still of that view, Nulla Nulla?

Right at some very stiff resistance. Dollar has come off a bit from its latest run up..solid US rebound...who knows maybe we can finally break out of 5500

 

[Tyler Durden]

I think the market is building up for a huge "sell in May, go away" drop. Happy to be proven wrong in a month's time.

 

[nulla nulla]

When trading opened today we were holding two (2) parcels of shares in GPT. The first was sold in the open for $3.85 realising a capital gain of 1.13% and the second parcel sold when GPT hit $3.88 also realising a capital gain of 1.13%.

We are out of the market now, at 100% cash. Mrs Nulla reckons there is going to be a major correction and has decreed we will sit it out for now or limit our trades to day trading small parcels. Might even go see a movie or two next week.

The executive committee (Mrs Nulla) has not changed her perspective. We are at cash but watching daily prices for any one day trade opportunities.

Still of that view, Nulla Nulla?

Right at some very stiff resistance. Dollar has come off a bit from its latest run up..solid US rebound...who knows maybe we can finally break out of 5500

Yes

I think the market is building up for a huge "sell in May, go away" drop. Happy to be proven wrong in a month's time.

We agree, a possible run up (spike) in the next week or so, followed by a sell down in May as the sheep apply the "In May, stay away" principle. Looking for re-entry in June for possible capital gain & dividend opportunities.

 

[skc]

A high of 5680 achieved in the first half, followed by a downdraft and finishing the year at 5180.

High = 5672, although timing on the call is a bit off.



There's a distinct weakness in the market, even though the index is only down ~3% and yet to breach the early Aug low.

Yield stocks have driven the rally since mid 2012. With now $Aud falling and bond yields rising sharply it makes sense for the market yield to expand meaningfully. XPJ (property index) is down ~6.5% already, and the big 4s have also underperformed. With iron ore lingering at the bottom, it'd be a big ask for the big resources to lift the market.

Let's see how close the 2nd half of my random prediction will be.

 

[dlineinvestor]

George Soros is short to the tune of 2.2 billion dollars notational value, bull runs have historically been around 66 months long and now we are in our 67th but we are breaking down in it.

 

[Wysiwyg]

George Soros is short to the tune of 2.2 billion dollars notational value, bull runs have historically been around 66 months long and now we are in our 67th but we are breaking down in it.

**** he must have got carved up with the market reversing up significantly?

? To anyone. Any reasons for the decoupling of ASX with American market since start of September?

 

[Trembling Hand]

? To anyone. Any reasons for the decoupling of ASX with American market since start of September?

In the golden days it was all just one big trade (7 to 2 years ago) - the risk on/risk off game. Just about the time the term became well known it started break down. Short term correlations are way out of whack when taking any snapshot.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Green lights popping up at the moment. The dump receding?

the risk on/risk off game.

That American market appetite is insatiable.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Majority not interested in holding at this juncture?

 

[Trembling Hand]

Majority not interested in holding at this juncture?

No love for the Financials.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Simon says, panic attack. Disappointing for me as I saw downtrend lines broken but it was only the goal posts being moved.