XAO Banter Thread

[qldfrog]

If the stimulus is eased won't that be because the US economy is dong better?

So any market sell-off in the context of this is just due to short-term fears rather than long-term expectations?

if talking aussie shares (my focus and I assume the focus on that thread) why would the US doing better affect us significantly:
when australia was going wellrelatively and the US bad, the US market kept soaring and reached its new tops we did not.
We could very well have our own slide down for a few months even with the US doing well.
My opinion only..

 

[RazzaDazzla]

I'm not a fundamentalist, but I just don't get it. Why is the Aussie so grossly under performing other indices, especially the US?

I understand that the US indices are majority fuelled by QE, the money has to go somewhere. But why is the Aussie languishing? If it's because we haven't stimulated as much as the US, then why isn't the Aussie doing better at least in USD terms?

USA et al are printing like crazy. Aus is being conservative on the printing but both the AUD and the Aus indices are struggling. I just don't get it.

 

[qldfrog]

my view is most expect the aussie dollar to fall so foreign investors are getting out now, no good time ahead for this country: decimated manufacturing, glut of minerals arriving on the market worldwide and no advantage left except a smaller debt than some...
gloomy future, complacent population heading the way europe went (tax, social welfare, red tape); add critical lack of infrastructure and booming population by uncontrolled immigration fuelling a RE boom.
If I had to bet, I would go US even if US are bankrupt because of the size of the debt.
you can go bankrupt and resurface, that is not something we can do unless drastic changes no one will dare doing until it get far worse
a nice share crash and then it will be worthwhile to invest in the asx again, especially with a very low AUD.Give it 3 to 5 months.We will see if I am right

 

[tinhat]

I'm not a fundamentalist, but I just don't get it. Why is the Aussie so grossly under performing other indices, especially the US?

I understand that the US indices are majority fuelled by QE, the money has to go somewhere. But why is the Aussie languishing? If it's because we haven't stimulated as much as the US, then why isn't the Aussie doing better at least in USD terms?

USA et al are printing like crazy. Aus is being conservative on the printing but both the AUD and the Aus indices are struggling. I just don't get it.

Have you checked out the Shanghai composite recently - like the last few years? Debt and money printing are two sides of the same coin. Australia has been running a current account deficit for thirty years now. Anyway, why the sad face? The XAO is up about 67% since 2000 and the S&P500 is only up about half that amount. Investors had several years to lock in amazing dividend yields in solid companies with franking credits on top. There are still some good yield and growth stocks presenting value.

 

[Trembling Hand]

If you are worried about the easing of QE don't be surprised to find that we rally when it does happen. Especially if they just knock it back a little this month and say we are going "Slow and Steady". We will get a Rally-o-rama.

 

[tech/a]

If you are worried about the easing of QE don't be surprised to find that we rally when it does happen. Especially if they just knock it back a little this month and say we are going "Slow and Steady". We will get a Rally-o-rama.

Yep highly likely

 

[RazzaDazzla]

Yep highly likely

What would be the "thinking" for a Rally if QE does get tapered?

Previously, good news which increases the chance of a taper has had a negative impact on markets. So why now would announcing a taper cause a rally? What's cause the flip in mindset?

 

[Trembling Hand]

What would be the "thinking" for a Rally if QE does get tapered?

Previously, good news which increases the chance of a taper has had a negative impact on markets. So why now would announcing a taper cause a rally? What's cause the flip in mindset?

No surprise at all. Everyone knows its happening why would it move the market now?

 

[RazzaDazzla]

No surprise at all. Everyone knows its happening why would it move the market now?

Previously talk of tapering sent the market down. So why now would talk of tapering send the market up?

 

[Trembling Hand]

Previously talk of tapering sent the market down. So why now would talk of tapering send the market up?

Really?

The market is forward looking mostly, what is known is priced in. If it wasn't it would be **** easy to trade. As soon as the realisation came that we would be facing the slowing of QE we took a hit. That was the market pricing it in. It may have been a warm up to the real selling but I wouldn't bet my house on it. Like I said its more than likely been priced in. Its one of the basics of markets.

 

[qldfrog]

If you are worried about the easing of QE don't be surprised to find that we rally when it does happen. Especially if they just knock it back a little this month and say we are going "Slow and Steady". We will get a Rally-o-rama.

I would disagree with the "we rally"
That the US market goes full steam, yes but that the aussie follows I seriously doubt
if I remember well, half of the stocks on the asx are owned by foreign entities, why as a foreigneer would you keep oz shares with a decreasing aud and doomy economic news
Look on friday: great news job wise in the USand the dow jump up with talks of QE easing but matched with optimistic news for the US economy,yet we(asx) crashed a big way;
And today : market tries to go up and fizzles lamely to end up negative after reaching a +0.8% early in the morning.
If this is not a clear sign???
remember we are in the xmas rally
I took this morning opportunity to get rid of a third of my remaining stocks...(one code )
I obviously hope I will be right: I did put my $ with my thoughts with put options which gave me a nice 4 figures paper profit yesterday.
Wait and see

 

[So_Cynical]

Really?

The market is forward looking mostly, what is known is priced in. If it wasn't it would be **** easy to trade. As soon as the realisation came that we would be facing the slowing of QE we took a hit. That was the market pricing it in. It may have been a warm up to the real selling but I wouldn't bet my house on it. Like I said its more than likely been priced in. Its one of the basics of markets.

So how is the US market pricing in 17.1 trillion in US debt and the impossibility of servicing it?

just curious....because i can only see the market pricing in cheap money, i think that what we have is not a "basic" market as we knew/know it...this is a market driven by Bots and running on QE fuel.

 

[Trembling Hand]

I would disagree with the "we rally"
That the US market goes full steam, yes but that the aussie follows I seriously doubt
if I remember well, half of the stocks on the asx are owned by foreign entities, why as a foreigneer would you keep oz shares with a decreasing aud and doomy economic news
Look on friday: great news job wise in the USand the dow jump up with talks of QE easing but matched with optimistic news for the US economy,yet we(asx) crashed a big way;
And today : market tries to go up and fizzles lamely to end up negative after reaching a +0.8% early in the morning.
If this is not a clear sign???
remember we are in the xmas rally
I took this morning opportunity to get rid of a third of my remaining stocks...(one code )
I obviously hope I will be right: I did put my $ with my thoughts with put options which gave me a nice 4 figures paper profit yesterday.
Wait and see

Nah mate you got me wrong. I posted last week that we look to be playing a new game of falls when GB was getting all bullish. I see what we are doing. I also posted the week before the divergence in the broader market while the indexes hide stuff. But what I said is once it actually is announced EXACTLY what the fed is going to do where ever the market is I doubt by then we will fall off the cliff.

My market feed is full of,

Fed's Fisher backs taper at earl...

Fed's Bullard: Probability of taper has increased

Fed's Plosser: Time to 'gracefully exit' QE3

These are coming on the wires every few hours for the last month. They are flagging it.

So how is the US market pricing in 17.1 trillion in US debt and the impossibility of servicing it?

just curious....because i can only see the market pricing in cheap money, i think that what we have is not a "basic" market as we knew/know it...this is a market driven by Bots and running on QE fuel.

You do know that the so called "bots" are dying a fast death? Been in decline all this year.

I'm not talking a rally 2003 to 2007 style, I'm just saying a wrong footed rally to surprise the slow once we know what they are actually going to do.

 

[qldfrog]

....
I'm not talking a rally 2003 to 2007 style, I'm just saying a wrong footed rally to surprise the slow once we know what they are actually going to do.

I agree and I will get back full speed but I expect to see the market crashing between now and then ->let's say 1rst quarter 2014 when the QE end will have been announced and the news swallowed and of course when shares will have a bit more value than the extended figures we are at.
I would not buy anything before..and I do not

 

[tech/a]

Yep highly likely

But then if we take a purely technical view it is possible that the market
in all three indexes is testing highs as we can see in the three charts here.
Personally I think it will take a great deal of positive SUSTAINED sentiment to
push into a stronger bull market of any resilience.

While it is likely that we have a smallish bull move I think it more likely we will have more of the same with a longer term bearish bias.
technically there is little to look forward to on the long side.

 

[PinguPingu]

So how is the US market pricing in 17.1 trillion in US debt and the impossibility of servicing it?

The United States Military and the Petrodollar

 

[Trembling Hand]

Gee taper and more guidance on rates outlook announced and I see a lot of green on my screen. Who woulda thought!

 

[nulla nulla]

If you are worried about the easing of QE don't be surprised to find that we rally when it does happen. Especially if they just knock it back a little this month and say we are going "Slow and Steady". We will get a Rally-o-rama.

Good call. Announcement that quantative easing would be tapered from us$85 million per month to us$75million per month gave certainty to the market an the instant reaction was confidence.

 

[tech/a]

Good call. Announcement that quantative easing would be tapered from us$85 million per month to us$75million per month gave certainty to the market an the instant reaction was confidence.

And don't be surprised if the market comes to it senses
And started selling off again.
Slower bleeding to death seems more palatable.

 

[notting]

Powder off the table in anticipation of tapering.(weakness in anticipation)
Event - Tapering hardly anything and remains 'data dependent.'
In other words, it could stay at 75B if we want it to (doubt it, market expects 10k per month) and we cover called that with extended low interest rates.
Quick, put the powder back in that's a no taper!

Now we watch the bond markets.
If the 10 year sells off to give around 3% US stocks are not attractive!