XAO Banter Thread

[Gringotts Bank]

I think 5467 might be a high turning point for a move back down to 5367.

Currently 5447.

 

[tech/a]

I think 5467 might be a high turning point for a move back down to 5367.

Currently 5447.

With the US printing more money until Jan
China with good growth figures.
I cant see why we wont maintain new highs.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

With the US printing more money until Jan
China with good growth figures.
I cant see why we wont maintain new highs.

My analysis gave me those numbers. But my gut feel agrees with you. Maybe I'll wait to see how it behaves when it reaches that number. I seem to do better when the two are aligned, not giving opposite signals.

 

[CanOz]

Interesting in that the SPI makes a big move on many an occurance of an inside day....

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Technical Analysis

I'll bring this one over here, away from the political threads as it will likely bear on the market if not reversed.

The unemployment rate trend continues upwards despite a slight reprieve last month, but the full time employed has been flatish for some time with the latest number down to lows. While there is a rise in the part time/casual work, the loss of a 'full time' job must eventually weigh on peoples confidence to spend.

Retail sales are sluggish and while real estate has kicked in come areas it's hard to see it continuing let alone taking up the slack from a slowing mining industry.

What is holding the market up... just optimism, based on RBA forecasts of inflation?

I'd stick my neck out and suggest their monetary policy got the mix wrong and likely sending us back to or close to recession. The main drivers of inflation is imported inflationary pressures that could have been lowered with harder monetary policy earlier, esp not increasing rates so quickly after the GFC but more importantly not lowering again quickly when it started to go wrong. They could have let the (artificially imported) inflation rate peak on the high side for a bit to allow the economy to adjust better long term.

On the cynical side... with the recent comments from the treasurer after his visit to the US, could it be that the RBA Big L Liberal philosophy deliberately favoured our big banks at the expense of our more critical export sector, in the expectation of generating a property and consumption led mini recovery for their own best interests, hence to justify their needs for strong profits to cover any downturn and bad/unrecoverable debts when their short sighted, even self-interests policy goes all pear shaped for the wider economy.

 

[RazzaDazzla]

Big open on the XJO tomorrow. SPI Dec contract closed at 5464, some 60+ points higher than XJO's Friday close.

I remember reading a post some time ago on Trembling Hands blog site; "The Bull is in the Gaps!".

 

[RazzaDazzla]

I remember reading a post some time ago on Trembling Hands blog site; "The Bull is in the Gaps!".

Perhaps the Bear is in the gap fill.

 

[Struzball]

I think 5467 might be a high turning point for a move back down to 5367.

Currently 5447.

Well it's moved to 5367 - then gone lower.. I believe from here it will run up to 5500 by the end of November before a long move down to 4500 by the end of 2014. I don't have any fancy charts so would be good if others who do real analysis lined up with my outlook.

Either way, I'll change my mind when I change my mind.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Well it's moved to 5367 - then gone lower.. I believe from here it will run up to 5500 by the end of November before a long move down to 4500 by the end of 2014. I don't have any fancy charts so would be good if others who do real analysis lined up with my outlook.

Either way, I'll change my mind when I change my mind.

There's an extended flag pattern - that's all I'm seeing at the moment. And it doesn't want to break to the upside yet.

I'm off to see Jack Shwager speak tonight. Hopefully some good info in that. Anyone else going?

 

[MrBurns]

I think it's going down for a little while, just gut feel, perhaps it's the weather here in Melbourne

 

[pavilion103]

Is there any specific reason why this has continued to fall sharply today and is down so much?

Any news or anything that I have missed? Or just selling because it was overextended!

 

[skc]

Is there any specific reason why this has continued to fall sharply today and is down so much?

Any news or anything that I have missed? Or just selling because it was overextended!

Tapering talk again. Some Fed member said something to the effect that it might start in Dec... for real this time.

Hence fall in $A, gold and emerging markets in general.

The last 2 days were pretty telling. Open high and finished very weak... well that's my hindsight observation for the day anyway.

 

[kid hustlr]

Tapering talk again. Some Fed member said something to the effect that it might start in Dec... for real this time.

Hence fall in $A, gold and emerging markets in general.

The last 2 days were pretty telling. Open high and finished very weak... well that's my hindsight observation for the day anyway.

Not so sure about the bolded, US treasuries (and our bonds for that matter) have been bid all day.

Pav you know why its fallen, more sellers than buyers.

XAO is pretty much just our banks anyway, they've been heavy this week.

 

[skc]

Not so sure about the bolded, US treasuries (and our bonds for that matter) have been bid all day.

From the AFR.

The ASX dropped and the Australian dollar weakened to trade below US93 ¢ after the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas president suggested the US central bank might consider a reduction of its $US85 billion a month bond buying program in December.

Mr Fisher, who will become a voting member of the Fed’s policy setting committee next year, reiterated his stance that the nation’s stimulus program could not last forever. Given the size of the stimulus program, the continuing debate over the timing of any tapering is creating increasing uncertainty for markets.

I take your point on what's happening in the debt markets so it may or may not be the driver.

 

[all$andnocents]

Well it's moved to 5367 - then gone lower.. I believe from here it will run up to 5500 by the end of November before a long move down to 4500 by the end of 2014. I don't have any fancy charts so would be good if others who do real analysis lined up with my outlook.

Either way, I'll change my mind when I change my mind.

How did you arrive at 4500? i guess 61.8% fib retracement would end up somewhere in the vicinity.

Can anyone comment on the wave count? i'm thinking final leg 5 but i'm a noob to this!

I guess i change my mind when the herd changes their mind

 

[qldfrog]

funny, I see something similar with a big fall 1rst quarter next year to 4300 or so then ramp up.
just based on gut feeling and curves historical analysis, no real science; so I sell now and will buy in second quarter,
So far a good strategy after days like today...

 

[Struzball]

How did you arrive at 4500? i guess 61.8% fib retracement would end up somewhere in the vicinity.

Just a return to the long term trend line basically, with an ABC corrective wave. My mspaint chart is not worthy of posting.

Can anyone comment on the wave count? i'm thinking final leg 5 but i'm a noob to this!

I guess i change my mind when the herd changes their mind

I'm thinking we're part way through wave 5 (since June), but I'm using EW as more of a risk/reward/expectation tool rather than trying to predict the future.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

XAO has broken a long term trendline, but the SPI has yet to break the 'same' line.

I reckon it will bounce up soon. 5300 lows?

 

[CanOz]

XAO has broken a long term trendline, but the SPI has yet to break the 'same' line.

I reckon it will bounce up soon. 5300 lows?

Sure, i've got the channel support at 5300 as well....on the SPI

I guess that was a flag on the SPI.

 

[MrBurns]

The only thing driving the US market is quantitative easing, when that ends so will the run and here as well and will mean sharp and painful falls.

So I'm inclined to get out now.....but don't really want to, it's a gamble really.

The easing is not sustainable and may end abruptly at any time, they have no choice.