XAO Banter Thread

[kid hustlr]

Agreed J it looks really strong.

Daily is still just a sequence of h/highs and h/lows. On the the 30 min the reversal bar from Sep 27 looks like a beacon and it has just run up from their.

Interested to get your thoughts on the week ahead when you get a chance. On a longer term basis that 4500 level has been a 'busy' zone and it wouldn't surprise me if we hung around here for a little bit or perhaps had a slight pull back.

Not sure what markets/indicators you keep an eye on in regards to helpful hints on how the XJO will play out but one interesting thing for me was the heavy action last Friday.

Note the heavy volume on the major constituents and it rained true for all the major stocks in the index that day. Wouldn't surprise me if we did re-test that 4370-4390 level (on the XJO) at some point and then had the buyers come back in?

Gotta dance until the music stops I guess so keep buying those dips??!!!

 

[Joules MM1]

Gotta dance until the music stops I guess so keep buying those dips??!!!

enjoyed that post, mate.....i want to wait until non-farm is out of the way tonight to do a summary for next week.....traders almanac say dont sell any (spx) rally off the release and the xjo certainly looks like it'll churn higher, maybe a small node with some managers selling the nearest 4500 round number....the hsi lools like building a base is almost over and the dax is holding just above that 7265 although i'm raising the sell level to 7270 for a break of the h/s pattern otherwise expect the euro-zone leader to chop higher too.......sell treasuries seems to be en-song and prob resell dx whatever the peg is......gold/silver appear to be churning higher....appears to me liquidity is expanding into us elections....

have a great weekend

 

[munster]

enjoyed that post, mate.....i want to wait until non-farm is out of the way tonight to do a summary for next week.....traders almanac say dont sell any (spx) rally off the release and the xjo certainly looks like it'll churn higher, maybe a small node with some managers selling the nearest 4500 round number....the hsi lools like building a base is almost over and the dax is holding just above that 7265 although i'm raising the sell level to 7270 for a break of the h/s pattern otherwise expect the euro-zone leader to chop higher too.......sell treasuries seems to be en-song and prob resell dx whatever the peg is......gold/silver appear to be churning higher....appears to me liquidity is expanding into us elections....

have a great weekend

Great point of views guys, i wouldn't be surprised to see some sort of pull back next week. The quant guys at probabilitytrader have been bullish for a month now and forecast solid gains to year end, but there analysis does forecast a pullback is imminent. Even over at marketanthropolgy they are bullish but are predicting a a more savage pullback for the S&P, which could drag us lower than sentinent actually wants to go.

Any hits below 4300 looks to the excellent bullish indicators to ride out to year end...Just quitely I'm hoping for a bad read tonight in the payrolls to help drive a pullback to flush this rally out

 

[notting]

Just quitely I'm hoping for a bad read tonight in the payrolls to help drive a pullback to flush this rally out

Market may take that as positive because it would assist the Republican case.
Last nights bounce was probably allot to do with Romneys first debate performance.

 

[munster]

Market may take that as positive because it would assist the Republican case.
Last nights bounce was probably allot to do with Romneys first debate performance.

That is very true, my thoughts are it seems that everyone is going into these numbers with to much euphoria and just quietly eroding away in the background for a few weeks now the macro numbers have been getting worse and the fundamentals of company's this quarter looks dminished at best.

Could be the tipping point for a pullback because it seems the only thing driving this rally is soft tail wind.

 

[nulla nulla]

Stellar run up this week on the back of the RBA interest rate cut and the dip in the Aud$ versus the US$. The XAO manage to close above the most recent high of 2 May 2012 at 4513.



I imagine there will likely be a period of consolidation but if the euphoria continues and refinancing of the Spannish armada doesn't sink the Eurozone, we could very well test 4600 in the not too distant future.
After all..the dow is retesting the 14,000 highs of pre-gfc. China's economy could be a damper though?

 

[Joules MM1]

http://soberlook.com/2012/10/australian-overnight-rate-expected-to.html

Tuesday, October 9, 2012
Australian overnight rate expected to hit the lowest level in the RBA's history

def worth a read

 

[tinhat]

http://soberlook.com/2012/10/australian-overnight-rate-expected-to.html

Tuesday, October 9, 2012
Australian overnight rate expected to hit the lowest level in the RBA's history

def worth a read

Melbourne Cup Day 2010 was the straw that broke the camel's back and the RBA was too stubborn to admit it's mistake until Melbourne Cup Day 2011. Let's see what is in store this Melbourne Cup Day.

 

[kid hustlr]

http://soberlook.com/2012/10/australian-overnight-rate-expected-to.html

Tuesday, October 9, 2012
Australian overnight rate expected to hit the lowest level in the RBA's history

def worth a read

Good read

Markets have been pricing in some cuts for a while now though. I was always under the impression that the further out the yield curve you looked the less reliable it became. ie, the accuracy over the next 3 months is pretty good but the accuracy 3 years from now isn't great. I was told this was partly due to the longer time frame creating more uncertainty, but also because the 3 yr and up bonds are simply more volatile and act as a place for banks to 'park their money'. I never quite understood that last bit.

just follow Bill evans if you want to know where interest rates are going the guy doesn't seem to miss.

 

[RazzaDazzla]

Lower rates, more people and instos inclined to buy shares VS receiving nothing parking money in the bank. Much like what is happening in US markets, people are buying equities for the yields.

So overall, continued bullish for XAO?

 

[RazzaDazzla]

Yesterday and so far today, it looks as though the dips are being bought.

 

[grace]

I wasn't really sure where to post this, but thought that a few members might look at this thread from time to time.

This is worth a listen - to the whole lot if you can spare the time. Das starts after the introductions.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZP8AjMAdql4

Satyajit Das - The end of ponzi prosperity

Low or no growth for a long time and stagnation are his predictions. There is also a prediction of 25% chance of total collapse or 75% stagnation.

"turning Japanese" - the lost decades is a theme.

 

[basilio]

I wasn't really sure where to post this, but thought that a few members might look at this thread from time to time.

This is worth a listen - to the whole lot if you can spare the time. Das starts after the introductions.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZP8AjMAdql4

Satyajit Das - The end of ponzi prosperity

Low or no growth for a long time and stagnation are his predictions. There is also a prediction of 25% chance of total collapse or 75% stagnation.

"turning Japanese" - the lost decades is a theme.

Satyajit Das has been expounding his views for years. I think logically he is quite right - we can't continue with exponential growth.

Unfortunately our economic system just can't accept that idea because it clashes with totally flawed continual growth movement.

________________________________________________________________________

Welcome back to ASF Grace. Hope all is well.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

I'm starting to look for the end to this run. Can't find anything yet. Anyone got any TA on the likely big top? Other than say 5000 which is too far off.

 

[tinhat]

I'm starting to look for the end to this run. Can't find anything yet. Anyone got any TA on the likely big top? Other than say 5000 which is too far off.

Well assuming no unexpected events out of Europe or China or unpredictable natural events then, except for a pullback that pivots around about 4550-4600 area, I'm guessing its going to be a bull market until the fiscal cliff (or at least the US presidential election result).

 

[havaiana]

http://soberlook.com/2012/10/australian-overnight-rate-expected-to.html

Tuesday, October 9, 2012
Australian overnight rate expected to hit the lowest level in the RBA's history

def worth a read

Interesting, the 87% chance of rate cut in the article applies fari value of about 1.15:1 odds. Can get odds of 1.50:1 right now. If the figure is correct that's a 30% return on investment, which is a huge return in terms of gambling

 

[havaiana]

Interesting, the 87% chance of rate cut in the article applies fari value of about 1.15:1 odds. Can get odds of 1.50:1 right now. If the figure is correct that's a 30% return on investment, which is a huge return in terms of gambling

bleh, just realised date of post/article, i'm sure the curve has changed by now

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Well assuming no unexpected events out of Europe or China or unpredictable natural events then, except for a pullback that pivots around about 4550-4600 area, I'm guessing its going to be a bull market until the fiscal cliff (or at least the US presidential election result).

Yeh it's looking that way. I can't see or feel any overhead.

 

[nulla nulla]

Has Obama's success in the second debate had any input to todays run up of the ASX?

 

[kid hustlr]

Another strong week. Strong AUD or not it doesn't seem to matter right now.

I guess with interest rates at 3.25% (and likely coming down further) and the ASX200 yielding 4.73% + franking why wouldn't everyone want a piece.

Thank big 4 banks are still yielding circa 6% + franking and have really enjoyed quite a boring, low volatility drive up since mid September. Surely this has to end soon and the last couple of days they have definitely taken a breather.

The big miners are actually trying to build a foundation as well and actual look kinda healthy for the first time in a long long time.

Market breadth also looks very good over the past few months.

One thing I do find interesting is the low volumes over the past few weeks. I'm not sure if there are seasonal reasons for this or whatever but turnover has been next to nothing. It's like everyone is waiting for something to happen and in the mean time everything keeps going up.