XAO Banter Thread

[Joules MM1]

11:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes


12:30pm AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks

tomorrow

 

[notting]

Apparantly we are here.



Not that I feel inclined to stand in front of this particular train.

 

[Joules MM1]

Apparantly we are here.

View attachment 49001

Not that I feel inclined to stand in front of this particular train.

which market are you referring to and how/what is the data input ......is it possible that the yield spread between junk and 'investment' grade debt is likely to get a lot closer to zero before an extreme in equities occurs?......

http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/?iid=EL

 

[tinhat]

I was going to post a question to the S&P 500 discussion about how toppy the S&P 500 is looking. Actually, I'll do that now. Next question after that is how much longer is the Shanghai composite going to be in a bear market and how much lower is it going to go?

S&P 500


Shanghai Composite

 

[Joules MM1]

I was going to post a question to the S&P 500 discussion about how toppy the S&P 500 is looking. Actually, I'll do that now. Next question after that is how much longer is the Shanghai composite going to be in a bear market and how much lower is it going to go?

is this having a baring on your decision to sell in this zone of the aus indecies, tinhat?

 

[Joules MM1]

I was going to post a question to the S&P 500 discussion about how toppy the S&P 500 is looking. Actually, I'll do that now. Next question after that is how much longer is the Shanghai composite going to be in a bear market and how much lower is it going to go?

S&P 500

worth a quick view

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/2012-09-10-markets.php

 

[tinhat]

is this having a baring on your decision to sell in this zone of the aus indecies, tinhat?

Joules, I'm just a mug. Mainly managing an income portfolio for the family SMSF scraping up dividends and franking credits. With regard to active investing I've been very quick to take profits early (too early) and cut losses lately. Got stung in the 2011 downturn. My guess is that we are going to rally into January. Its possible that minerals have seen the bottom for the time being. It all depends on China really. Are they going to come out of their funk quickly? The VIX is low but hasn't flattened out for any period yet.

I'd be surprised if we didn't take out 4500 on the XAO on this current rally. I think a further 50 basis points of cuts to the official cash rate might get us up higher.

 

[Joules MM1]

RBA ready to cut rates - but not yet

Date
September 18, 2012 - 12:26PM


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...but-not-yet-20120918-263q7.html#ixzz26ml81GMY

 

[Gringotts Bank]

This is called a creep-me-up-athon.

Creeping up on 4330, once again. :walker:

 

[Joules MM1]

How many times have we hit 4400 on the XAO since the september 2011 bottom eh? And every time I say to myself "sell everything" but never do.

th, did you get your fill of the Twiggs, today?

http://goldstocksforex.com/2012/09/18/australia-asx-200-rising/

 

[Gringotts Bank]

This is called a creep-me-up-athon.

Creeping up on 4330, once again. :walker:

Sorry, 4430 was the high to beat on Aug 23.

Looking for 4457 tomorrow and this is huge resistance. Watch closely!

 

[kid hustlr]

few days ago on here i said we'd re-attack the 4400 level.....even if its to simply distribute......we are just about due some rotations in markets .....interestingly, with things like copper making a sort-of tech break-out and what could be gold exhaustion in the next few days and bonds going into equities we could get drahged up higher still, but, i kinda like the shape the xjo has been making for us to go anther trip downsouth after a false break-out above here with assitance of the hsi.....on the euro news release the xjo was pathetic and today we look good pre-empting the bernank release which i think will be much ado about zip, little on qe......

the aussie market has the challenge of the dollar and if it gets stronger (i suspect so) is likely to keep a foot on the throat

not keen to get big on any opinion......

Joules, forgive me for back tracking and I'm really enjoying your analysis.

With respect to the bold, are you inferring to big fundies rotating out of some more defensive based stocks (REIT, banks, consumers) and into materials/energy?

XJO still looks like h/highs and h/lows to me on both the daily and 30 min charts but agree with all those who feel this current zone is important.

 

[tinhat]

Sorry, 4430 was the high to beat on Aug 23.

Looking for 4457 tomorrow and this is huge resistance. Watch closely!

XAO hit the upper Bollenger band today (XJO hit on Monday and today). The XAO usually either consolidates or corrects after hitting the upper Bollenger band (daily chart). On the weekly chart the XAO hasn't reached the upper Bollenger band yet. Over the past three years the XAO almost always retraces the following week/s after hitting the upper Bollenger band on the weekly chart. The last time the weekly XAO hit the upper band was 4/5/12.

 

[skc]

Share market is collapsing today!!!

(Or may be just SPI expiry)



(Or manipulation?)

 

[nulla nulla]

Must be the "3rd" Thursday, options expiry.

 

[Klogg]

Share market is collapsing today!!!

(Or may be just SPI expiry)

View attachment 49058

(Or manipulation?)

This may be the newb in me coming out, but... SPI expiry?

 

[CanOz]

This may be the newb in me coming out, but... SPI expiry?

Share Price Index futures contract expires and rolls over to the new front month....December I think...been a while since I looked at the SPI.

CanOz

 

[Klogg]

Share Price Index futures contract expires and rolls over to the new front month....December I think...been a while since I looked at the SPI.

CanOz

Ahh yes. Between yourself and google, it makes sense to me now.

Thanks

 

[Joules MM1]

Joules, forgive me for back tracking and I'm really enjoying your analysis.

With respect to the bold, are you inferring to big fundies rotating out of some more defensive based stocks (REIT, banks, consumers) and into materials/energy?

XJO still looks like h/highs and h/lows to me on both the daily and 30 min charts but agree with all those who feel this current zone is important.

we are just about due some rotations in markets .....interestingly, with things like copper making a sort-of tech break-out and what could be gold exhaustion in the next few days and bonds going into equities we could get drahged up higher still, but, i kinda like the shape the xjo has been making for us to go anther trip downsouth after a false break-out above here with assitance of the hsi.....on the euro news release the xjo was pathetic and today we look good pre-empting the bernank release which i think will be much ado about zip, little on qe......

the aussie market has the challenge of the dollar and if it gets stronger (i suspect so) is likely to keep a foot on the throat

not keen to get big on any opinion......

yes, i mispoke and am wrong.....when i said rotation, that's poor street talk for we should get a load of selling based on the level of where the index is, the zone it's in right now at 4400ish, as we've seen before (ah, but, on the right hand side of the chart we have......)......given the background evidence and your series of h/h's and h/l's we are likely to get a relatively shallow pullback rather than a revisit to the weekly lows.....if someone sneezes in honkers or germany we seem to catch 24 hour flu....it's like waiting for the water to break and baby to arrive.......the Operations of QE(ternal) or QEp(erpetual) or iQE(phone - the fed) was a real surprise in it's open ended stance and probably is more likely to fit the trend it's released in just as much as it is forcing the trend as so many talking heads are saying which suggests more of the same, if that's the case, locally, we'll stay floating with the tide, but as for investment grade, not so sure about that.....that's the crux ....i like the next 10 mins over the next 10 months...with all the new 52 weekly highs in the SPX like last thurs was 89/1 friday was 109/0 and even flat-yesterday was 32/2 ratio 52nwh's v nwl's and the background breadth (see HT's jpeg post in the SP500 thread) and the NYAD on new altime highs and the nasdaq at 11 years highs and the rut making new highs it's difficult to argue a substantive decline.....right now.....even so, investment grade right now? maybe not.....tradeable grade, mos def

 

[Joules MM1]

some burbble on the elephant in the boat

the xjo is likely to get a small swing down this week.....i am short on the cash close of friday on xjo....

any pull back appears to be shallow and i think the action on the spx (most indecies) is saying trading as normal with a tad more volatility rather than rapid trend in one direction....even so, many pointers suggest more energy in the up direction

some US squibbs....
Jill Malandrino: all 10 sectors were on momentum last week, a rare thing
Sentiment trader: Active investment managers are showing more signs of group-think. The managers are carrying a median exposure to equities of 95% net long.... the highest in more than 18 months and close to the highest levels in six years
Adv/Dec: on the SPX yesterday saw 52 new weekly highs v 0 new weekly lows (Fed annoc day saw 109 NWH's and 0 NWL's) which is a very strong numbers for what was pretty much a (in toto) doji day on the SPX/DJIND
Bespoke Poll: todays result shows 53% think index lower in month v 47% think higher (107 v 95)
Commitment of Traders: http://snalaska.com/cot/current/charts/ES.png shows a lot of small accounts got hit heavily as shown in the open interest, they were looking for sale of the century....a lift in the open interest reflects to me that large money got even more positive bias going into the Fed annoc opened more longs and closed more shorts, conversely small money withdrew open longs and added to open shorts against the (Fed) reaction......for several years this has been a hallmark of weak v strong money, or, price direction ......
Bespoke: Dow Jones Industrial Average has now gone 61 trading days without a one-day decline of more than 1%. Over this time period, the Dow has risen 8%.

clearly, we are due a few swings south, small ones, cataclysms will have to wait this week on the XJO and we need to break above the 4440 zone, maybe a single positive-close day where the internals show no large distribution and more belief is added to the buy-side, maybe not an a-ha moment, which would be good to have a slow slog uphill.....conversely; also means more of the same government and more of the same from the RBA, no intervention into the AUD makes investment from o/s very difficult to attract.....

on the volume thing: there was heavy volume in the US, mostly due to Kraft and the triple witching did tend to fuzz the trade picture as mostly once the cash open was kicked in there clearly was an intent to sell most of the day, another reason to hold the XJO short overnight

i never dismiss correlation (yes it's not causation) ......it's timing!.....i have a short on gold after both gold and silver were heavily sold into on a third higher highs thru wedge tops on an hourly basis....even tho swaps dealers are heavy short compared to money managers it's not good to fight all that bullish bloating.....meaning small size with small targets before looking to re-enter longs

i like when markets signal at the same time a movement in liquidity that's rotating in a ebb/flow thing, sell liquidity steps in while buy liquidity sits aside, quite different to cataclysm.....all markets must tread time is an old mantra and still sounds right to me....

so, the TRAN issue....hmmm.....smothering down weekly bar......hmmmmm......jury is still out for mine.....non-confirmations do not mean a to-the-minute sell signal as we saw in the jan to mar 2000 year non-com when the DJIND slumped against the SPX....that's three months......the TRAN also made new altime highs not long ago yet no one went on pedestal rant about that event when equities were dragging behind......bias, nope, awareness, yep.....

expecting nice swings south this coming week

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/9/21/61-days-without-a-1-decline-whats-next.html
http://snalaska.com/cot/current/charts/ES.png
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2X3Q9MGJ0gI&feature=em-uploademail-new
http://poll.pollhost.com/YmVzcG9rZQkxMzQ4MjU4ODU1CUVFRUVFRQkwMDAwMDAJQXJpYW wJQXNzb3J0ZWQ/

in the world of you-cant-make-money-looking-at-charts: i wont post any.......lulz


trading, i prefer next 10 min over the next 10 days

if you suffer bad trade habits and only you know you do, this is for you.....