XAO Banter Thread

[Joules MM1]

voila, volatility!

from mister Twiggs http://goldstocksforex.com/2012/09/24/australia-asx-200-resistance/

 

[kid hustlr]

have hit the nail on the head this week at this stage Joules

 

[Joules MM1]

have hit the nail on the head this week at this stage Joules

today looks like a buy day despite the hook down in US futures.....but it's all in a larger cycle so some higher highs to come before a significant pull back.......same goes for HSI .......

i'm expecting to see signs of distribution now, lift in volatility in the US

 

[notting]

That rising trendline is being tested and is holding thus far.
Very important action at present.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

I concur with the bullish statements.

Test of 4443 soonish (1 week), then target May high 4513.

 

[Joules MM1]

today looks like a buy day despite the hook down in US futures.....but it's all in a larger cycle so some higher highs to come before a significant pull back.......same goes for HSI .......

i'm expecting to see signs of distribution now, lift in volatility in the US

crikey.....quick or the dead.....shorts on!

 

[CanOz]

crikey.....quick or the dead.....shorts on!

Yeah, interesting night...the Dax was the most unusual action I've seen for months....so thin yet getting sold at every opp.

 

[Joules MM1]

Yeah, interesting night...the Dax was the most unusual action I've seen for months....so thin yet getting sold at every opp.

yes, made for a reasonable heads up for the us open......i can't get that there is any buying going on......not buy yom kippur that's for sure.....

 

[Joules MM1]

Yeah, interesting night...the Dax was the most unusual action I've seen for months....so thin yet getting sold at every opp.

worth keeping close eye on what dax futes do when cash closes

 

[Joules MM1]

xjo

spx closed on a fizzer, likely needs another leg down

 

[kid hustlr]

Bounced off of it pretty hard, will be interesting to see how the afternoon plays out.

Those tails are getting longer and longer!

 

[Joules MM1]

Bounced off of it pretty hard, will be interesting to see how the afternoon plays out.

Those tails are getting longer and longer!

mate.....get ya measuring tape out.....i find, mostly, when the index takes off while the other indecies are closed that's a good look for the next few days, especially if we get a close above yesterdays high......

 

[nulla nulla]

Interesting bounce these last two days. Managed to stay above the lower channel bar but the 4440 level is proving a challenge.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

See the blue dotted line. That's from the peak of 2007. This is the reason for the cautious couple of weeks. Needs a lot of confidence to break through. It represents a return to a bull market, imo. I'm thinking another +100 points easily from here.

 

[Joules MM1]

I'd be surprised if we didn't take out 4500 on the XAO .......

gettin there.....



Market Pulse Archives

Oct. 2, 2012, 12:48 a.m. EDT
Australia surprises with 0.25 point rate cut

By V. Phani Kumar

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday surprised by lowering its policy interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.25%, citing a weakening global economic outlook, uncertainty over Chinese growth and a "somewhat" softened domestic labor market. The rate cut, which takes effect Wednesday, is the RBA's third since April, with the total reduction in the benchmark cash rate target amounting to one percentage point since then. RBA Gov. Glenn Stevens said the central bank decided to make its monetary policy "a little more accommodative" as the growth outlook for next year was deemed to be a "little weaker" due to external factors. The Australian dollar AUDUSD -0.57% slumped after the decision, and was buying $1.0314, as compared with $1.0369 a minutes before the announcement. Stock benchmark S&P/ASX 200 AU:XJO +0.85% extended gains slightly, and was up 0.8% at 4,424.90.

 

[Joules MM1]

the din of "sell the rallies" overnight hit what i think is a small peak, i am buying the dips and selling the highs-to-close as opposed to getting short way too early as that is the very thing that assists these (SPX) distribution periods where shorter are creating the uptrend......Bespoke.com noted that this mornings SPX close saw the first time in several consecutive closes where stocks bought exceeded sales offered......the daily close above 4440 on the XJO that i've been looking for appears on for today however the other big elephant in the boat that US futes pay close attention to is the DAX and that is very close to calling a sell signal in my opinion .....technically, on a 7 day 15 min period there's a subtle inv h/s pattern on the DAX i've been running and a hold above 7270 with move above 7376 would be a very good sign of higher weekly highs.....

even tho Twiggs clearly shows money coming out of US indecies and the TRANS giving off smelly sell signals i think we have higher to go to complete cycles pre-election.....i think the EURO/USD and the TED are signalling higher prices too....

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Yesterday was very significant for the Aus market. We broke out from a huge symmetrical triangle (the blue dotted line on the daily chart). This is the weekly chart of same.

 

[nulla nulla]

This looks hopeful, finaly breaking above 4440.



Then again our major trading partner doesn't look too hot.



Fingers crossed we aren't rolling along on hollow euphoria.

 

[Joules MM1]

a lower aud = a higher participation of o/seas equity buyers

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Wednesday, October 3, 2012
Spike in Australian trade deficit points to AUD's vulnerability

http://soberlook.com/2012/10/spike-in-australian-trade-deficit.html

excerpt

WSJ: - Data showing that Australia's trade deficit unexpectedly blew out in August sent the Australian dollar to a four-week low Wednesday, with further losses likely as traders ramp up bets on further interest rate cuts.

A slump in prices paid for key commodities, such as iron ore and coal, meant Australia returned a A$2.03 billion deficit in August, its worst performance since March 2008 and much wider than the A$685 million that economists had expected.

 

[Joules MM1]

nice relentless up-day....grind the shorts.....