XAO Banter Thread

[nulla nulla]

So after almost 5 Years of sideways, down and clawing our way back, we have finally broken through the upper bar of the pennant. The next challenge is the high of 5070 of 11 April 2011.

 

[Joules MM1]

be a few sore heads monday......tween traders ranting about 1987 week comparison, broken technicals and electioneering in the US and HSI final distribution churn (for which i was way too early selling on thurs!) fridays trade turned out to be a nice constant ride downhill and what was curious was the way the XJO futes ran ahead of the US cash market and alongside metals till just prior to the cash open ......i closed my screen early saturday morning and was satisfied that there was not bounce coming......cfd's continued to sell after the US cash closed

if there is a comparison to 87 it is only this one (imho): that the strength of holdings be inline with the thinking prior to a strong pullback and not reactive to the pullback......

the tech sector was already heavy on thurs and we should see an outside down week on the xjo/xao, so, technically, i think if we do not get that down bar on both indecies then look for a flood of buying to come in.....

my pos is to be short the US futures unless strong signals say otherwise.....this should be a short-lived affair.....

as Aus futes for xjo closed friday 4571's and likely to open between 4520's and 4530's, or if heavy selling hits from weak longs close to 4500 ........ideally, a long tail on a weekly bar for both indecies would trigger strong buying with ratios calling for 4450 XJO to hold and if we take that level out, with no reversal, then a strong portfolio thinning review is likely to kick in back to 4340 XJO .....I expect the HSI to print wide red numbers on monday too...... i think we're in a small Keating moment.... a larger pullback we have to have.....what is important is the strength of both indecies following the pullback and any divergences that occur at that time may be a good time to decide on stocks held especially given the extent of liquidity going into the Aus market .....

one comparison i do think is worth considering analogous to any period would be the 2004 churn in the SPX that saw several pundits call for a return of a bear trend and we all know what actually happened ....the XJO did not go thru the same churn (daily basis) relative to the SPX, in fact, the opposite, the XJO was extremely robust (not withstanding that the AUD allowed stocks to looks attractive to o/s buyers)...

i think a key level for the DAX is 7330 hourly which saw some buying (post cash and just prior to the US closing and did not sell-on with US futures) and 7220 daily basis.....

from a stock holders perspective, that weekly point of view maybe a better value than just the daily to come

ideas...

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Long term = Symmetrical triangle breakout, bullish (blue dotted line)
Medium term = Sitting above support, mildly bullish (thick black lines)
Short term = Bounced off support today (thin black line), bullish.

 

[RazzaDazzla]

I get the feeling the aussie battler is trying its darnedest for a long overdue catchup with the US markets.

US drops near 2%, we only dropped a little yesterday. US markets closed flat overnight, we're currently up 0.5%. I don't think anyone can deny the audacity of the aussie market lately.

 

[Joules MM1]

http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php#closed



cpi q/q

 

[stevier95]

Where is the All Ords heading?

Where does everything think the All Ords will go over the coming days/weeks?
Drop below 4500 or power on upwards?

 

[burglar]

Re: Where is the All Ords heading?

Where does everything think the All Ords will go over the coming days/weeks?
Drop below 4500 or power on upwards?

Today

ALL ORDINARIES (^AORD)-ASX

4,530.60 -37.40 (-0.82%)


Yesterday (Overnight)

Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI)-DJI

13,102.53 -243.36 (-1.82%)

If we are "following a lead from Wall Street"
we are in **** street. IMO

I predict a test of resistance at 4,444

 

[Joules MM1]

xjo printing weekly outside down bar despite very high money flows inwards and on the back of break fo crucial support levels on spx and frothy top on hsi

....weak bargains looking to get culled over next few sessions....good time for health check of non performers......

 

[Gringotts Bank]

There's 2 lines at 4484, which should support. Monday or Tues.

 

[nulla nulla]

The xao appears to have dropped from the upper channel bar to the lower channel bar in only 5 working days, what happened in Australia that warranted this? If the xao doesn't rebound from here the next support level looks like the previous resistance level of 4440 or worse the previous support level of 4403.

 

[CanOz]

The xao appears to have dropped from the upper channel bar to the lower channel bar in only 5 working days, what happened in Australia that warranted this?

Sellers being more aggressive than buyers! Love the volatility!

CanOz

 

[notting]

Sellers being more aggressive than buyers! Love the volatility!

Having done some navel gazing to figure out why that was, the head line that arose was ld:-"new doubts about another interest rate cut due to higher than expected inflation has given some internationals reason to retreat a little from XAO!"

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Experimenting with a new composite indicator (bottom pane). Very basic. Let's see how she goes. Currently on 18 which is a very low value historically, meaning it's due for a run up.

 

[starman45]

In the short term the sellers are more aggressive buyers and were able to move under the less support 4532ish.
However, sellers are against the immediate trend and the recovery of that support could resurrect the uptrend in the short term.

 

[Joules MM1]

xjo printing weekly outside down bar despite very high money flows inwards and on the back of break fo crucial support levels on spx and frothy top on hsi

....weak bargains looking to get culled over next few sessions....good time for health check of non performers......

quick follow-thru



The Chartist, a point of view:

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=14048464&l=4375fb69da&id=79843145389

 

[Gringotts Bank]

I concur. Expecting a 120 point drop from here to 4360, from the busted h&s top.

 

[MrBurns]

Sounds ominous

Is there anywhere you can se the futures for tomorrows trading ?

I had a link to the US one somewhere but don't recall ever seeing one for the ASX.

 

[RazzaDazzla]

Sounds ominous

Is there anywhere you can se the futures for tomorrows trading ?

I had a link to the US one somewhere but don't recall ever seeing one for the ASX.

From my 5 seconds of investigation, Commsec has live SPI prices on the banner that scrolls across the front of their homepage.

Otherwise SFE has 20 minute delayed SPI prices. There's plenty of other third party websites that give delayed SPI prices too.

 

[MrBurns]

From my 5 seconds of investigation, Commsec has live SPI prices on the banner that scrolls across the front of their homepage.

Otherwise SFE has 20 minute delayed SPI prices. There's plenty of other third party websites that give delayed SPI prices too.

Thanks i was thinking more of trades/orders placed after hours that give an indication of what the next day might be like........

 

[CanOz]

Thanks i was thinking more of trades/orders placed after hours that give an indication of what the next day might be like........

Yeah, that's the SPI Burnsy...the contract closes sometime before the cash opens, giving you a heads up to where the cash will open...It just follows the S&Ps anyway.

CanOz