XAO Banter Thread

[Quant]

We'll it indicated a volatility crush which was followed by massive short covering rally....

what leads what

 

[CanOz]

What defines "single session reversal"?
Surely there have been bigger moves...like this one less than six months ago...

View attachment 70541

Volatility Index gaps up 14% and finishes down 3.6% today, one of the largest intraday reversals in history. $VIX

 

[Quant]

We'll it indicated a volatility crush which was followed by massive short covering rally....

After the biggest gap down open in a long time a squeeze wasnt exactly a low probability event and with all due respect i still fail to see an edge in VIX at all . Are you suggesting VIX was a leading indicator here and if so how , I am interested .

 

[CanOz]

Ummm, no I'm not suggesting anything other than it was certainly a case for bears to lighten up.

 

[Quant]

Headwinds mid 5900's

 

[peter2]

Let's close the door on the negative committee and look at some classic technical analysis using the ascending triangle pattern projected target.

This bit of TA is courtesy of the positive committee.

 

[Porper]

This my take on the weekly chart.

XJO heading higher within a bear market bounce...unlike U.S indices which are still enjoying bull market conditions.

Up toward 6000 before a significant leg down. Best case is to head up to the 1.382 projection of wave-A just shy of 6500 before heading down.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Triangle breakout target 6025.

 

[gartley]

I doubt All ords will reach more than 6100 on this leg up. Thrust out of the triangle is at it's later stages. Daily and 8Hrs bars cycles analysis suggest between 5935-5989 if we are lucky. Either it finishes today or no later than Wednesday next week.
More importantly. a triangle whether part of an impulse or corrective in nature is the penultimate pattern to the last wave in a sequence. As such the current thrust out of the triangle will quickly be retraced back to the base of the triangle and most likely much further down. Price and cycles have reached an extreme.

 

[gartley]

Will be interesting to see if we get a continuation in the SP500 from here. Taking the following analysis at face value, this leg up is close to being complete and a correction imminent.

 

[Smurf1976]

Been reading and listening to rather a lot of macro economics / market stuff lately and it's all leading me to much the same conclusion. Noting a US focus here:

1. Now in the late stage of what has been a very long business cycle.

2. Fed is raising rates and that normally is followed by the economy, market or both falling in a heap.

3. Third most expensive US stock market in the past century.

4. Bond market seems to have peaked. Stocks tend to peak sometime after that historically.

5. Three stages in a bull market and we're now in the third stage.

6. The recent surge in the market isn't matched by what's happening in the real world on practically any measure. There's some growth but not to the extent that the market seems to be expecting. Then there's things like the price of copper which remains well below the peak.

7. Political risk is high.

8. Overdue for a substantial correction based on what's happened historically. That would be true even if there was no other reason for concern.

So my personal thoughts are increasingly that we're going to see some serious trouble ahead in the markets. I won't try and get the details right but I'm thinking in terms of the sort of decline that sees people postpone retirement plans and which literally everyone knows about regardless of their normal interest (or lack of it) in financial matters. So not just a 10 or 20% decline but something major.

That said, I still wouldn't be surprised if the markets continue higher in the short term. I just don't see how it adds up once the Trump euphoria wears off, whatever crisis arrives and there's a rush for the exits.

Have I lost the plot here and become way too bearish? Or are others having similar concerns?

 

[qldfrog]

Have I lost the plot here and become way too bearish? Or are others having similar concerns?

This is just common sense Smurf and I share your thoughts.Obviously, the can could still be pushed a couiple of years: more negative interest, debt debt debt debt, and it can not end well;the trouble is that it is hard to resist but you have to think it that way: is the risk worthwhile for a 5% or so gain a year for maybe what 2-3 y at most and then lose most of your saving/assets with a 60/70% fall which would be match by economic/RE crisis?I believe we are too far ahead and got out from the stockmarket in the last month, from what was conservative to a hurricane shelter position;
But what is safe: I am a taker on any suggestion there: only so much USD/Gold and land can offer.A bit of bonds and some hybrids monitored daily for some income in the meantime. Gold and bonds can collapse too...
And I believe that when the **** hits the fan, whoever would have avoided the crash will be sucked dry by the governments in place (gold/cash/account ->seizure/confiscation/lock)
so any lateral idea is welcome

 

[Logique]

Triangle breakout target 6025.
View attachment 70551

This. In the near term, I think we move up next. Still looks a a momentum play to me.
But watching Gold very closely.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

If we can close above 5974 (Ords), the 6025 might happen tomorrow. Then sell, I reckon.

 

[Quant]

Looks like the damage is done 6k XJO going to be a tough nut to crack medium term

 

[MRC & Co]

Looks like a market ready for a reset to me!

 

[notting]

Real News about Fake newsers -
The US Securities and Exchange Commission announced Monday last week
Hundreds of articles published on top financial news websites were written by individuals paid to promote certain biotech stocks, it was scandal for consumers and upsetting for a segment of the news industry whose credibility is at stake.

The SEC announced enforcement actions against 27 individuals and entities, including public companies, stock promotion and communications firms, executives and writers behind alleged schemes that gave investors the "impression they were reading independent, unbiased analyses on investing websites, while writers were being secretly compensated for touting company stocks." Of those charged, 17 have agreed to settlements ranging from $2,200 to nearly $3 million.

The SEC complaints says the articles appeared on Benzinga, Forbes, Investor Village, Minyanville, Seeking Alpha, Small Cap Network, The Motley Fool, TheStreet and Yahoo Finance.

Doing it in a more subtle way -

 

[MrChow]

I'm hoping Trump succeeds over the next 18 months with his fiscal policies as I want interest / bond yields run up as high as possible before the various asset bubbles keel over. Stocks would continue their gains but would ultimately be built upon the greater fool theory.

 

[CanOz]

Looks like a market ready for a reset to me!

Struth, look what the cat dragged in!

Where ya been ole boy?

 

[Gringotts Bank]

I'm hoping Trump succeeds over the next 18 months with his fiscal policies as I want interest / bond yields run up as high as possible before the various asset bubbles keel over. Stocks would continue their gains but would ultimately be built upon the greater fool theory.

Some of the things Trump is saying are worrying. In particular his desire to return to his previous life and how hard the Presidential job is.