XAO Banter Thread

[Wysiwyg]

Over 9 years since the XAO topped out. 6873 still a long way away points wise.

Iron ore +8.7% to $US78.36 a tonne FMG BHP RIO come out of the blocks like Hesin Bolt

Usain Bolt's younger brother?

 

[Logique]

The Santa Claus rally is well underway, most indices around the world, incl XAO

 

[MrBurns]

The Santa Claus rally is well underway, most indices around the world, incl XAO

I just sold out of almost everything while the going is good.

 

[Logique]

Going to make it tricky picking stocks for the 2017 comp!

 

[Wysiwyg]

I just sold out of almost everything while the going is good.

That's a hard thing to do when the going has been tough and some profits have started emerging.

 

[MrBurns]

That's a hard thing to do when the going has been tough and some profits have started emerging.

Interest rates are on the way up....

 

[notting]

Time to sell the fact after buying the Trump news.
A trade war is not out of the question.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Time to sell the fact after buying the Trump news.
A trade war is not out of the question.

Tony A. said Australia is open for business.

 

[pixel]

Tony A. said Australia is open for business.

Tenders invited for the farm to be flogged.
... and the Ports
and airports
and power infrastructure
and coal mines ...

But don't anyone dare and put up an ugly wind farm

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

reasonable run for the XAO since Trump elected

maybe around 5750 at end of tomorrow, the banks have joined in to get to where it is

 

[Bill M]

Interest rates are on the way up....

Are you sure about that? According to this article there is a strong possibility of us going below the USA cash rate. If that happens not only will you get less interest but the AUD will crash too.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-30/rba-fed-cash-rate-aud/8154142?section=business

 

[gartley]

You can forget about AUD crashing, in fact it's a great long term long trade IMO. If the recent moves in the bond market are any indication you can also forget about the lowest rates in 5000 years going lower. God help those that are highly leveraged in debt.....

 

[MrBurns]

Are you sure about that? According to this article there is a strong possibility of us going below the USA cash rate. If that happens not only will you get less interest but the AUD will crash too.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-30/rba-fed-cash-rate-aud/8154142?section=business

I'm not sure about anything just thinking rates have been too low for too long and something has to give.

 

[kid hustlr]

You can forget about AUD crashing, in fact it's a great long term long trade IMO. If the recent moves in the bond market are any indication you can also forget about the lowest rates in 5000 years going lower. God help those that are highly leveraged in debt.....

Why you say that Gartley? I agree on rates but I think the AUD is headed lower

 

[Bill M]

I'm not sure about anything just thinking rates have been too low for too long and something has to give.

It's always a hard juggling act. In the last few days ING Living Super dropped their 1 year term deposit rates from 3.1% to 2.9%.

I too have offloaded just a little of my stocks but it's really hard doing that going from a 7% grossed up dividend down to 2.9% for cash. As for the AUD, I've seen it at .48c to the USD and $1.10 to USD, it has certainly had some wild rides.

---
NAB analysts say 2017 may be the year the Reserve Bank cash rate falls below US interest rates, and the last time this occurred the Australian dollar slumped as low as 48 US cents.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-30/rba-fed-cash-rate-aud/8154142?section=business
---

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

could be on the way to 6,873, our index is lagging a lot of others

 

[gartley]

Why you say that Gartley? I agree on rates but I think the AUD is headed lower

There are quite a few technical reasons but here I will only show one. I saw this developing in mid 2015. From the October low of 2009 till the peak of July 2011 almost 34 months passed. The market fell for close to 55 months from the July 2011 peak till January 2016. So what??? you may ask...

Well 34 and 55 are fibonacci numbers, that in itself is no big deal. But the fact that they occur adjacent to each other in the sequence suggests that this could either be an area of substantial support in time or a major turn. 34/55=0.618 phi. This has turned out to be the case exactly, so don't expect the AUD to fall through the last low any time in the near future, but for the rally to persist in the months ahead. Fibonacci time counts can be very important. Look what happened in AUS200 back in April 2015 and the subsequent downturn ( 89 months peak to peak). It was flagged back then suggesting down turn was imminent but not many listened)))))

https://invst.ly/31you

https://invst.ly/31yoo

 

[kid hustlr]

Hard to argue with the recent moves

 

[Quant]

Banks toppy , just got the lighten memo from my bank man , i say tops in for a month , sell the pops is my MO from here , nice bearish reversal at channel extreme , just where i like em

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

not much hope with XAO breaking out and holding onto anything,

just about every fund manager believes fully valued!