XAO Banter Thread

[Gringotts Bank]

Two men clearly want war, and the media is salivating. Ridiculous.

 

[notting]

Trump was never set up mentally to be able to meet the demands of Presidency. He may just become less bellious and allow everyone else to do the jobs and just make announcements.

The US and it's market is delusional at best. Trump is the first fully fledged political and economic Evangelist. The US is nuts, truth is dead it's all hype and bullsh!t - at least one person is making sense -

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/29/davi...ead-on-arrival-and-wall-st-is-delusional.html

 

[Gringotts Bank]

My charts today gave a breakout signal with a target of 6112.

 

[Quant]

Headwinds mid 5900's View attachment 70547

Pretty confident we seen highs for a couple months now

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

Can't see XAO getting into the 6000-7000 range in the next 5yrs, it's got no hope

 

[Quant]

Possibly a short term bounce here but this will fail soon enough

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

Anything in the budget to move XAO? continue on its sick way

 

[skc]

Anything in the budget to move XAO? continue on its sick way

Actually the market hasn't performed too badly. Normally when you see big 4 banks down 3-4% that's carnage situation across the market. But today, the damage is very much confined to the banks alone. Non-bank financials performed quite well and telecom and materials also held ground. The fact that the market is only down 0.5% overall shows that it is not an overall retreat from the equity market - but more a switch out of banks.

Sell the rumour buy the fact... now that the transaction tax has been announced, it wouldn't surprise me if banks are flat or even green tomorrow. The tax is in essence an invitation for the banks to raise their interest rate for borrowers independent of the RBA. So that's why we are seeing the $AUD falling (as prospect of RBA raising rates is diminished). You'd also expect the regional banks might gain some market share as a result. So there are some of the thesis to build trades around tomorrow.

 

[Quant]

Australia’s big banks hit by $6.2bn levy in budget cash grab


https://www.theguardian.com/austral...al-budget-2017-banks-business-foreign-workers

 

[Logique]

Big 4 at 4-month lows, bargain hunters will come sniffing around soon enough.

The banks will pass along costs to customers and carry on their merry way. Where else are the customers going to go.

 

[nulla nulla]

The opening prices and sell down were a joke. Any additional taxes levied against the banks will simply be passed on to their customers by way of fees. They will be doing their utmost to maintain or improve their profits. After all, their bonus's are at stake.

 

[nulla nulla]

Actually the market hasn't performed too badly. Normally when you see big 4 banks down 3-4% that's carnage situation across the market. But today, the damage is very much confined to the banks alone. Non-bank financials performed quite well and telecom and materials also held ground. The fact that the market is only down 0.5% overall shows that it is not an overall retreat from the equity market - but more a switch out of banks.

Sell the rumour buy the fact... now that the transaction tax has been announced, it wouldn't surprise me if banks are flat or even green tomorrow. The tax is in essence an invitation for the banks to raise their interest rate for borrowers independent of the RBA. So that's why we are seeing the $AUD falling (as prospect of RBA raising rates is diminished). You'd also expect the regional banks might gain some market share as a result. So there are some of the thesis to build trades around tomorrow.[/QU

Good call, opening sell off followed by keen buying. Majors came off their lows fairly quickly and volume weighted averages higher than the opening price. It wouldn't surprise me if tomorrow saw the major banks tick higher.

 

[Quant]

2017 going to be an interesting and likely pivotal year . key points

1. Housing market only needs a RBA rate rise to prick that bubble
2. Low debt impairment at aussie banks will become under pressure if 1 eventuates , only one way to go
3. Many top 50 companies trading on high multiples ( 20 plus) that are normally attached to high growth , which isn't the case
4. Auto manu shutting down which is going to put pressure on UE rate and wage growth . 40,000 workers looking for jobs is the number ive seen floating around .
5. Price of commodities with Australia a dirt economy , IO recently come of significantly
6. The huge private debt to GDP . one of the largest worldwide.

I'm sure there are more points but these the main ones I see currently , pretty hard to get bullish equity markets in the medium term in my eyes . I just scanned the top50 and its difficult to find any compelling value , most of what I see is getting expensive . Equity wise US in much same shape , I definitely see the risk to downside but as a trader I will trade what the charts give me but I'm happy to crush any pops for now in coming months . I look at them as gifts

 

[Quant]

6. The huge private debt to GDP . one of the largest worldwide.

I was actually thinking of household debt to GDP in this instance , my mistake although private debt aint that great either

 

[MrBurns]

Some of the things Trump is saying are worrying. In particular his desire to return to his previous life and how hard the Presidential job is.

I don't know how or why he bothers
The American people wanted change and got it and haven't stopped complaining since.

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

The rba has no hope of lifting interest rates in the next five years, inflation is at low point of range, wage growth is still in downward trend

Everybody going to get tax increase with Medicare levy and most likely banks lifting rates slightly independent of RBA with bank levy

I feel we have to look at reducing the number of people coming to the country taking up unskilled employment/labour

Very tricky situation, I am very concerned that my capital(shares) is going to go nowhere in the next 5-10years

 

[Quant]

The rba has no hope of lifting interest rates in the next five years, inflation is at low point of range, wage growth is still in downward trend

My thoughts are if FOMC rate hikes continue eventually the RBA has no choice but to raise although I'm not convinced US FED keeps raising but it is the rhetotic atm and a raise at next fed meet is priced

 

[MrBurns]

The RBA may not but the banks will.
Curbing immigration ?....I agree but it's too late and there's no hope of that happening, the Govt is useless when it comes to anything but stuffing things up and lining the pockets of the rorting politicians.
It's hard to find an Australian face among the crowd anymore, easy picking in dopy old Australia.

 

[MrBurns]

Has anyone got an opinion on this mob -

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

Another night of records on international markets, probably be flat or down for Aussie share owners