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Going nowhere
XAO Banter Thread
- Thread starter clayton4115
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UMike
Klutzing in Thai
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I'm with you ... Sold a lot the last few days.... Thinking of selling the rest.
While I am enjoying the recent run I don't quite understand it.
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Looking at recent charts it seems a wedge has formed. Lower highs and higher lows with now not much room to move without breaking out of it. I'm no T/A guru but that's how I see it.
Volume seems to have peaked at the end of February and has been declining thus far in March.
Looking at other markets it could be broadly said that things have been incredibly stable and predictable of late. Only exception would be oil which went sideways for a long time before suddenly falling last week. Most markets seem to have been pretty unexciting with not a lot happening. For that matter, even the local weather has been predictable with no real extremes.
Surely something's got to give before too much longer? Either we're going up or we're going down, right? Anyone have thoughts as to which way?
My own thought is that down is more likely than up and that the drop in commodities producers and some commodities themselves is plausibly a warning. I could be wrong of course....
Volume seems to have peaked at the end of February and has been declining thus far in March.
Looking at other markets it could be broadly said that things have been incredibly stable and predictable of late. Only exception would be oil which went sideways for a long time before suddenly falling last week. Most markets seem to have been pretty unexciting with not a lot happening. For that matter, even the local weather has been predictable with no real extremes.
Surely something's got to give before too much longer? Either we're going up or we're going down, right? Anyone have thoughts as to which way?
My own thought is that down is more likely than up and that the drop in commodities producers and some commodities themselves is plausibly a warning. I could be wrong of course....
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I'm thinking the same. Expecting a bit of red-green-red for a few more days.
5742 soon, imo.
skc
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Yes by definition it will break soon.. the range is just too narrow. The indications to me is to breakup. US markets at all time highs and the current coiling pattern is the result of a strong run since Nov/Trump. Thursday night might be a good trigger date given the expected US rate increase. The market should take that in stride.
Frankly I am not a market bull at these levels, but the market trend is up which means either those buying are right, or there are more people who are wrong than I expect.
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feel its going to stay in this range,
the big shocks have pretty much gone, but not a lot to drive it higher now
the XAO cant get over pre-GFC levels, who knows why
the big shocks have pretty much gone, but not a lot to drive it higher now
the XAO cant get over pre-GFC levels, who knows why
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Tomorrow I think XAO will pop up to 5870, then that might be it. Can't see it going further in the short term.
Market looks good to me for another 12 months at least.
The trajectory of U.S jobless claims is still positive and should continue for the next 12 months with government policy on tax, jobs and infrastructure. A severe downturn usually only happens 6+ months after U.S jobless claims hit a bottom, so all that would mean 18-30 months of clear air yet.
My speculative guesses would be a peak of around 24000 Dow and 6500 XAO.
The trajectory of U.S jobless claims is still positive and should continue for the next 12 months with government policy on tax, jobs and infrastructure. A severe downturn usually only happens 6+ months after U.S jobless claims hit a bottom, so all that would mean 18-30 months of clear air yet.
My speculative guesses would be a peak of around 24000 Dow and 6500 XAO.
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US jobless claims - now there's a measure I hadn't thought of looking at.
This 50 year chart does suggest though that whilst it's still clearly going in the right direction we're near a point where a reversal could be expected before too much longer.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims
UMike
Klutzing in Thai
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Well almost a month gone and I'm Out of One of the banks completely Just a median parcel left of another.
Waiting for a down turn I guess.
Porper
Ralph Nelson Elliott
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Bearish divergence on all the banks except CBA...on daily and weekly timeframes. Bit of caution required I reckon.
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5880 looks a cert for the Ords tomorrow or day after. If so, then that chart I posted above would be obsolete pretty quickly, and the possibility of a ascending triangle breakout or triple top.
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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The vix put in what appears to be the biggest single session reversal in its history last night....
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Cant say i'm a huge fan of VIX for anything . A derivative of a derivative of a derivative , too far from reality for me tbh
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Seeing a lot of parallels with 2015 atm , i really cant see any bargains in top 20 stocks much same as early 2015 and certainly not looking for a bullish swing trade 5700 and above , if we had pulled back to 5600 in recent times i would have taken a bullish swing but i just cant see a lot of meat to upside , Daytrading my MO for now ... Multiples over 17 arent where value is found 
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How is all that infrastructure spending going to happen with unprecedented debt levels?
Now not even a bonus from any savings from Obamacare it's only going to get more expensive.
Republicans could not achieve that much they are far more reluctant to put money to work in infrastructure. That's more like what the Democrats like to do.
But tax cuts, ooh yeah, they'll get into that.
Even though the debt ceiling needs to be raised, AGAIN!!
Then what? Bankruptcy!?
Now not even a bonus from any savings from Obamacare it's only going to get more expensive.
Republicans could not achieve that much they are far more reluctant to put money to work in infrastructure. That's more like what the Democrats like to do.
But tax cuts, ooh yeah, they'll get into that.
Even though the debt ceiling needs to be raised, AGAIN!!
Then what? Bankruptcy!?
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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We'll it indicated a volatility crush which was followed by massive short covering rally....
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What defines "single session reversal"?
Surely there have been bigger moves...like this one less than six months ago...
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