XAO Banter Thread

[Toyota Lexcen]

Pretty flat market at the moment, been 6months of falls and now floats around 4900-5300

a tough call for long term investors, easy for a fund manager to do things with new money or take losses on other people's money

 

[Gringotts Bank]

GXL is not a healthcare stock. It's in the pets business so it's more of a retail stock. Yes it has vet surgeries but it's not a health stock.

I had it in the wrong group.

Deutche Bank 'sector downgrade' according to someone on HC.

 

[shouldaindex]

XAO has been in the 5100s in each of the past 3 Decembers (2013, 2014, 2015).

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Healthcare stocks continue to get sold off hard. I can't remember that happening before. I wonder the reason.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Something else I've noticed. These web/app companies with one or two clients and no revenue and no hope of revenue. They are forming big inverted V-shaped charts. The run up can even happen over months with low volatility.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Turnbull's "Ideas Boom" idea hasn't helped the small app-based start ups.

I don't even use apps on my phone... for anything. Can't be bothered with Google Play. Just find the whole thing annoying and tedious.

Nowadays you can list a company if you have an app that measures how much water your pot plant needs. lol, I bet there's already something like that out there.

 

[onthesword]

Turnbull's "Ideas Boom" idea hasn't helped the small app-based start ups.

I don't even use apps on my phone... for anything. Can't be bothered with Google Play. Just find the whole thing annoying and tedious.

Nowadays you can list a company if you have an app that measures how much water your pot plant needs. lol, I bet there's already something like that out there.

yep, it's called plantlink

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

Another ordinary week coming for ASX by looks of it

Just amazing the impact APRA and RBA are having on equities

 

[Wysiwyg]

Thought the over count on job numbers would have spurred some sort of appreciation but not so. Went crazy down instead.

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

Just amazing, people would have to seriously consider cash as the best place to invest if they have less than 20yr
time frame

 

[PinguPingu]

Effectively nowhere for 4 years!

Oh well, at least you'd have ~4.5% in dividends each year.

 

[shouldaindex]

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...t=29925&page=2&p=883129&viewfull=1#post883129

ASX has gone nowhere for 57 years since 1900.

 

[Ves]

Effectively nowhere for 4 years!

Oh well, at least you'd have ~4.5% in dividends each year.

Not quite.

Dec 9th 2011 to Dec 10th 2015

XJO^Accum Index return 42.6%
XJO return 18.9% (doesn't include dividends).

 

[shouldaindex]

Even if the ASX goes nowhere from 2007 to 2027 you'll make about 8% P.A for the next 12 years.

 

[PinguPingu]

Not quite.

Dec 9th 2011 to Dec 10th 2015

XJO^Accum Index return 42.6%
XJO return 18.9% (doesn't include dividends).

XJo Should be 5 years sorry.. minus inflation But yes, including dividends isn't too bad.

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

Cash wouldn't be that far off if you go back to 2007, think about 3yrs ago you could of got around 8% for 5yr term deposits, capital preserved, be interesting to see the 20yr data on cash

Without having to deal with turmoil,

Not saying cash ideal, but people would have to seriously consider holding more in portfolio or have 20yr time frame with equities

 

[Wysiwyg]

Obsessed with the down again. Makes ya want to give this business the flick. Too hard.

 

[MrBurns]

Obsessed with the down again. Makes ya want to give this business the flick. Too hard.

It's gambling to a degree, let's face it and manipulated to a high degree.

 

[Bill M]

Effectively nowhere for 4 years!

Oh well, at least you'd have ~4.5% in dividends each year.

Actually, in numbers terms only, the XAO first hit current levels in March 2006. So that index has gone nowhere for 9 years and 9 Months. What a shocker.

At current prices I have been buying parcels for my super fund, all high dividend ETF's (RDV, VHY and SYI). Gross distributions 7 to 8%, not too bad. I am reducing cash holdings.

Obsessed with the down again. Makes ya want to give this business the flick. Too hard.

It sure does, once I have enough to live off interest with money in the bank then I will but with current term deposits of around 3% I am a long way off that point.

 

[shouldaindex]

FTSE has gone nowhere since 1998.

Both the Nikkei and Dow went nowhere for a 30 year period.

ASX longest flat period was 16 years between 1967 to 1983.

ASX is majority made up of Commodities and Financials - CBA, WBC, ANZ, NAB, BHP, RIO, WPL, IAG, SCG, WFD are 10 of the biggest 14 companies, none of which are forecast to grow above single digits for the next few years.

Australia / USA has had a Recession or Financial crisis every decade post WW2.

The median USA recession post first FED hike is less than 3 years.

This is good to me as it suggests we're going to take up many more years retracing and the biggest gains come after the longest flat periods.

Think of it as the current having it's returns put into the future (EG 2008-2018 being put into 2019-) as opposed to the past stealing future returns (2003-2007 stealing from 200.