XAO Banter Thread

[Valued]

It's an odd move up considering world indices are down or steady. Usually I would expect more caution ahead of the rates decision in the US. I don't trust Australians on Mondays though. Actually, I don't like our market in general - where the hell is our huge steep bull market, everyone else got one ASX 10,000 or go home.

 

[kid hustlr]

XJO vs XSO divergence since the august shakeout low is incredible.

The winds are changing.

 

[tinhat]

XJO vs XSO divergence since the august shakeout low is incredible.

The winds are changing.

TLS down. Banks down. BHP & RIO down. WOW & WES down.

As the ad says "Down, down, prices are down".

 

[skc]

TLS down. Banks down. BHP & RIO down. WOW & WES down.

As the ad says "Down, down, prices are down".

Do you trade in the land DownUnder?

Where prices go Down and performance is under.

They all buy shares for their Super.

The hedge funds' short, there's no need to cover.



No... it's not awesome, but describes pretty well the XAO's status as the world's short trade proxy (as a fellow trader called it today).

 

[PinguPingu]

Poor little ASX... but yields on the big 4, WOW, WES and TLS must be great now! :

 

[shouldaindex]

As long as you know why the world is wrong and you are right (when you are the highest bidder for stock).

 

[shouldaindex]

Also looking at the XAO from the 2011 Low.

It has made big gains in the December to April period in each of the 4 years of the bull run. This is a seasonally strong period in bull phases historically and has turned out to be shown once again here.

I would say if there is a weak December to April coming up, it'll be a worry. Fed Rates are likely to go up in the US to end nearly a decade at record lows. Just like Banks which dipped 30% post April, it's hard to tell when one phase ends and another begins, so getting an indicator against strong trend could be a signal.

 

[Valued]

We are a commodity market with a commodity currency. If we have a bull market id expect to see commodity prices rising, the AUD getting stronger, and China increasing imports. Without that, we may be in a difficult position.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

A couple of guys I like to read online are saying to prepare for a pretty strong bull run on the DJIA.

So I'm hopeful we'll follow upwards.


Also...

CNNMoney (London) November 11, 2015: 5:03 AM ET

There's a positive mood in global markets Wednesday.

China's annual shopping bonanza is setting the tone and the beer industry is also grabbing headlines.

Here are the five things you need to know before the opening bell rings in New York:

1. Shop 'til you drop: China's biggest shopping day of the year is smashing records again, with total transactions already surpassing $10 billion.

The annual online shopping festival is China's version of "Cyber Monday."

Within the first eight minutes, customers had spent $1 billion on Alibaba's (BABA, Tech30) popular shopping platforms, Taobao and Tmall.

The results are boosting shares premarket in Alibaba, JD.com (JD), and Yahoo (YHOO, Tech30), which owns a large stake in Alibaba.

2. Big beer deal done: The world's two biggest beer brewers have formally agreed to combine their businesses in a deal worth roughly £71 billion ($107 billion).

Anheuser-Busch InBev (AHBIF) is offering £44 in cash for each SABMiller (SBMRY) share, but there's an option for some investors to receive shares instead of cash.

Related: Fear & Greed Index

3. Carlsberg sacks thousands: Shares in competing brewer Carlsberg (CABGY) are rising by about 8% in Europe after the company announced it was cutting 15% of its workforce as it struggles with weak business in Russia and China.

4. Market overview: U.S. stock futures are rising alongside key European markets. This follows two days of lackluster moves.

Asian markets ended with mixed results, but the key Chinese index closed with modest gains.

On Tuesday, the Dow Jones industrial average and the S&P 500 each rose 0.2%, while the Nasdaq dipped 0.2%.

Commodities are looking soft Wednesday as oil prices dip by about 1% to trade around $43.80 per barrel. Prices for aluminum, copper, nickel and zinc are also falling.

5. Earnings: An earnings update from Macy's (M) is due ahead of the open.

This afternoon, quarterly reports will come through from Popeyes (PLKI) and Flowers Foods (FLO), which is the company behind Nature's Own and Wonder bread.

 

[shouldaindex]

Not so much, but we already know predicting short term movements are random basically.

Interesting stat I found though that might help:

"During the period of 30th November to 30th April, the ASX has only lost 3 times out of past 30 years"

Wowee.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Not so much, but we already know predicting short term movements are random basically.

Interesting stat I found though that might help:

"During the period of 30th November to 30th April, the ASX has only lost 3 times out of past 30 years"

Wowee.

I think it's similar with the DOW. That's part of what made them say that.

 

[Wysiwyg]

We don't like to follow the American market up too closely but we sure dive when the American market falls.

 

[sinner]

We don't like to follow the American market up too closely but we sure dive when the American market falls.

Unless you're tracking the USD priced AU index or AUD priced US index, you are not interpreting the signals correctly. Depending on what is driving the market, returns can be completely subsumed by the move in AUDUSD.

For example, when you plot the S&P500 cash priced in AUDUSD cash, you can see the index milled around the 2009 lows until 2012 even though you probably thought it was going up.


(h/t barchart.com)

You'll also note during that period the Aussie market was actually rising but the US market priced in AUD was not...

The NYSE listed EWA is a good way to see the Aussie market priced in USD (benchmarked to the MSCI Australia which is approx equiv to S&P ASX100). Alternatively I believe there are now ASX listed US index ETFs, ASX:SPY and ASX:VTS which allow you to see those indices priced in AUD.

 

[shouldaindex]

Great content Sinner.

What is worrying though is the Dow is only 6% off it's peak. It has a long way to go if something hits and the XAO starting point is 5000, not 6000 like previous, and when there's contagion it might not matter as it'll be sold off regardless.

 

[qldfrog]

Great content Sinner.

What is worrying though is the Dow is only 6% off it's peak. It has a long way to go if something hits and the XAO starting point is 5000, not 6000 like previous, and when there's contagion it might not matter as it'll be sold off regardless.

to mitigate this, the peak was 8 years ago or so, inflation at 2% a year just for the ease of computation (and I do not even count the actual printing of money) so in real term, the down is still down a good 25% from its peak..., and in actual "value" probably even far less.
values are not static, the dynamic view helps

 

[skyQuake]

Unless you're tracking the USD priced AU index or AUD priced US index, you are not interpreting the signals correctly. Depending on what is driving the market, returns can be completely subsumed by the move in AUDUSD.

For example, when you plot the S&P500 cash priced in AUDUSD cash, you can see the index milled around the 2009 lows until 2012 even though you probably thought it was going up.

View attachment 65023
(h/t barchart.com)

You'll also note during that period the Aussie market was actually rising but the US market priced in AUD was not...

The NYSE listed EWA is a good way to see the Aussie market priced in USD (benchmarked to the MSCI Australia which is approx equiv to S&P ASX100). Alternatively I believe there are now ASX listed US index ETFs, ASX:SPY and ASX:VTS which allow you to see those indices priced in AUD.

Thats funny, I had those charts priced the other way, S&P priced in USD and and the AU indices in USD too. Would argue that a US centric view would be more relevant.

to mitigate this, the peak was 8 years ago or so, inflation at 2% a year just for the ease of computation (and I do not even count the actual printing of money) so in real term, the down is still down a good 25% from its peak..., and in actual "value" probably even far less.
values are not static, the dynamic view helps

If you add in inflation, you'd better also look at asx accumulation indices to compensate for the divs too

 

[qldfrog]

If you add in inflation, you'd better also look at asx accumulation indices to compensate for the divs too

True but we were discussing US indice with quite low dividends 9as opposed to Australia) so i believe the overall idea is still we are far in real money from the peak of 2007

 

[shouldaindex]

Last 3 years ASX has ended up in the same area late in the year.

Probably setting up for a strong seasonal run again barring a negative global catalyst.

 

[Logique]

XAO +2% today, is one hell of a squeeze.

Shouldaindex, looking at your chart, I see one set of red dots in a LT uptrend, meeting another in a downtrend, or is this too glass half empty of me..given the strong seasonality at this time of the year.

 

[skyQuake]

Time for that strong Christmas rally?

Everyone that took the div runup trade in the banks has puked out so banks should rally.

BHP et al are bouncing despite the very nasty commodities moves.

Now if those pesky commodities can bounce, our index should go nuts