XAO Banter Thread

[PennD]

Purely Speculation...



A little learning is a dangerous thing;
drink deep, or taste not the Pierian spring:
there shallow draughts intoxicate the brain,
and drinking largely sobers us again.

 

[shouldaindex]

I notice ASX and S&P500 futures are down to September next year.

Is that an unusual implied forecast?

 

[Valued]

I notice ASX and S&P500 futures are down to September next year.

Is that an unusual implied forecast?

That is to be expected since the futures markets are pricing in a chance of a US federal reserve rate hike.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Last time we had these tiny candles, it was followed by a big sell off.

Lots of corporate failures. And lots of mean reverting stocks failing to revert. My MR systems have been flat for about 3 weeks.

I think the market is slowly heading into a big hole.

 

[kid hustlr]

I notice ASX and S&P500 futures are down to September next year.

Is that an unusual implied forecast?

That is to be expected since the futures markets are pricing in a chance of a US federal reserve rate hike.

Valued I'm not sure if you are serious ??

S&P Futures go out for many months and their value can almost 100% be based on the cost of carry calculation for the underlying commodity - in this case the index. (Think interest rates - dividends). Whilst market expectations of interest rate hikes will influence the cost of carry calc, claiming future contracts are down because of an expected rate hike isn't really accurate.

 

[shouldaindex]

- House Price decline.
- China PMI contraction.
- Interest Rates likely on hold.

ASX up 100 points?

 

[CanOz]

- House Price decline.
- China PMI contraction.
- Interest Rates likely on hold.

ASX up 100 points?

Anticipation?

 

[MrBurns]

Anticipation?

Could be anticipation of a fall............

 

[Porper]

- House Price decline.
- China PMI contraction.
- Interest Rates likely on hold.

ASX up 100 points?

Don't forget the market is forward looking...it likes to prove the 95% wrong. Pessimism is at extreme levels. Question now is whether it's extreme enough.

 

[MrBurns]

Could be anticipation of a fall............

Nope , on hold....again.

 

[cynic]

Anticipation?

Yep! Santa's coming this month!!

 

[CanOz]

Yep! Santa's coming this month!!

Seems he's planning a stop in China too

 

[notting]

It seems that the internationals are back into our market still looking for yield on the back of strong building numbers and Au$ looking to have stabilized and possibly even going to go up a bit.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

health sector getting hit. Why's that?

 

[VSntchr]

health sector getting hit. Why's that?

Rumour has it that Elon Musk has a cure for all that ails the ill.

Jokes aside, it could be a bit of rebalancing given the dollar has recovered a bit. A lot of the big health names are foreign earners... RMD, COH, CSL come to mind...

Haven't noticed anything substantial myself yet tho..

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Rumour has it that Elon Musk has a cure for all that ails the ill.

Jokes aside, it could be a bit of rebalancing given the dollar has recovered a bit. A lot of the big health names are foreign earners... RMD, COH, CSL come to mind...

Haven't noticed anything substantial myself yet tho..

Cheers.

Might put a few low ball offers in for tomorrow.

 

[skc]

health sector getting hit. Why's that?

HSO and RHC downgraded by Credit Suisse today. Plus HSO is a private equity float that seen the last of the escrow shares sold last week.

PRY is in the dog house for some time with 2 profit downgrades already. Plus there was a piece written by Macquarie today that it may not end there.

The other moves were not huge and were probably sympathetic falls.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

HSO and RHC downgraded by Credit Suisse today. Plus HSO is a private equity float that seen the last of the escrow shares sold last week.

PRY is in the dog house for some time with 2 profit downgrades already. Plus there was a piece written by Macquarie today that it may not end there.

The other moves were not huge and were probably sympathetic falls.

Thanks for that. I'll leave PRY alone then. Have heard bad things about GXL too.
HSO and RHC I'll look at if the price gets low enough.

 

[skc]

Thanks for that. I'll leave PRY alone then. Have heard bad things about GXL too.
HSO and RHC I'll look at if the price gets low enough.

GXL is not a healthcare stock. It's in the pets business so it's more of a retail stock. Yes it has vet surgeries but it's not a health stock.

 

[Logique]

A little ray of sunshine is Bill Gross..

Bill Gross says it's time for investors to 'de-risk' their portfolios - December 4, 2015
SMH: http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...portfolios-20151203-glf4yw.html#ixzz3tJ0rCBkV

Bill Gross says investors should move to protect their money in 2016 rather than reach for higher returns as central bank efforts to stimulate the global economy set the stage for markets to ultimately fall.

Gross, the former manager of the world's largest bond fund who joined Janus Capital Group last year, said central bankers have been doing the equivalent of printing money and acting like gamblers who keep doubling bets to recoup losses.

"One day the negative feedback loop on the real economy will halt the ascent of stock and bond prices and investors will look around like Wile E. Coyote wondering how far is down," Gross wrote in an investment outlook Thursday for Denver-based Janus...