XAO Banter Thread

[Toyota Lexcen]

good couple of days but looks like back to same issues

the one thing to come out of the Fed notes is this desire or schedule to lift rates 4 times in 2016!

 

[Logique]

The Little Aussie Battler $AUD will be doing the Limbo!

 

[Logique]

For what it's worth. So much of this across the net.

Milton Black - psychic and astrologer
http://www.miltonblack.com.au/thismonth.htm#monthly

January 2016 Astrological Forecast

...However, with the solar eclipses in March, care is advised with stock market speculation up until September 2016, several market corrections are predicted especially during March 16 to April 6, May 15, to June 4, June 16 to July 14, August 6 to September 19, October 1 to 17, October 27 to November 30, December 2 to 28.

Throughout this year financial markets will be volatile, especially the US Dollar, Chinese Yuan and the Euro. Gold and silver are still good investments for 2016. There appears to be a stronger global economy building from October 7, as Jupiter moves out of the zodiac sign of Virgo and enters the balance sign of Libra for the first time in 12 years. With Jupiter (expansion) in Libra (arrangement) from October to December, this will certainly help boost free trade agreements, deliver more exports, create more jobs and lower certain commodities prices.

The last three months of 2016 will show a gradual improvement in the business and employment sectors, due to a positive growth cycle during November when Mercury (trade) and Venus (incomes) moves into the mid-heavens (positive) of the Global horoscope....Investors would be advised to check investments in the Biotech and scientific industries throughout 2016, big opportunities will be available for profitable investments...

World Psychic – LaMont Hamilton
Complete World Psychic Predictions for 2015-2016
http://worldpsychic.org/world-predictions/predictions-2016-part-i/

Predictions – 2016 Part I

...Prediction #29: We’re at a very severe turning point concerning our financial stability in the US with the stock market and financial institutions about to fail and I feel that things will start to unravel considerably by December as the potential for another 2008 crash occurs. This could be due to one bank or institution after another failing around the world which will in turn threaten our economy, watch Japan and Puerto Rico for the triggers.

Prediction #30: No matter who wins the 2016 election, the economy will take a major financial hit when the elections are over and it will be handed to the next administration to deal with...

 

[CanOz]

I am struggling desperately too avoid being to bearish, but to be honest there is not allot technically to be bullish about...Fundamentally things are not that good either. Seems Europe and Japan have shown their QE hands and the market has pretty much digested that. China seems tool blocked to do much more and yet we're still seeing contraction and now the sellers have returned to their equity market...The Yen and Vix look set to trade higher, never a bullish scenario.

Anyway, I'm glad I'm not long only

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

here we go again, 4 days of losses so far this year

global instability at the moment in financial markets, all looks set to continue

 

[shouldaindex]

We've been in the 5000-5500 range now for most of 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 (Roughly 80% of the time).

In recent cycles, the permanent gains have been made within the first 12-24 months of the start of a bull market, so the intial bull run got us from 3900 to 5000 in about 15 months, and we've been in that 2nd stage of retracing any further gains for a while now.

 

[howmanyru]

The XAO is trying to stay above 5000, that's the bottom of the trend line since the GFC lows. Don't know that it will hold above that though, not this year.

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

five ordinary days so far for 2016

cant see this turning until there is some sort of catastrophe in the financial markets otherwise its going to be a long painful period of 4-5years I feel

 

[howmanyru]

Here we go, US pre market is horrid.

 

[shouldaindex]

Looks like we could be in for another one of those 'Friday afternoon - Monday morning' headline days we've had recently.

ASX Futures currently down -80 points, on the back of a sharp turnaround (down) in Europe and U.S in the past few hours, but still half the day left in the U.S.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Starting to get that sickly feeling.

Today (or last Fri) was meant to be a relief day, according to my questionable modelling. When the expected relief day is met with selling, there's a fair bit more pain ahead.

Due to the falls over the last 5 days, I'm thinking the chart will want to form a small tight flag (reduced volatility and volumes) before continuing down.

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

with whats happening with financial stocks its understandable where the ASX is

you have close to 60% of the index down significantly, 30-50% falls

 

[shouldaindex]

Here's the ranking of sectors since the 5950 level peak in April:

Outperformed:
1. Utilities
2. Industrials
3. Healthcare
4. Info Tech
5. Staples
6. Telecom

-----
XAO
-----

Underperformed:
7. Financial
8. Materials
9. Energy
10. Discretionaries

BHP was $39 (currrently $15) less than 18 months ago.

Just a guess but I think the 18 months since April 2015 (so til this November) could be a similar period where you think how much could really happen that quickly, and you look back and realise a lot. Not many bear markets last more than 18 months, and you don't want them.

 

[satanoperca]

Not many bear markets last more than 18 months, and you don't want them.

Maybe this bear is a little more pissed off.

 

[Wysiwyg]

That was a spiteful pullback after a promising rally this morning. Different to the previous 5000 support/pivot area price action.

 

[Bill M]

I am the first to admit that I don't know much about technical analysis so that's why I am posting here rather than ruin a good thread with the experts.

We first hit these levels we are currently at almost 10 years ago. 5,000 on the XAO is an extremely strong support line. Everytime we hit it (or just below it) the market jumps. People start buying and I have too. We have hit this level or just near it around 8 times in the last 6 Months. (give or take 100 points)

Putting everything into context, I maintain my position, this is a very good entry point to get set with your long term portfolios, (just my opinion of course). I have pumped both mine and my wife's super up, just a bit, not massive amounts, just in case we get better opportunities later.

I believe the world is not coming to an end. I do not believe the China story is over, they will be consuming for a long time yet, all be it at a slower pace. I also believe Australia is not a basket case, we do have some edges that not many places can match.

In summary, the value is there right now (distributions a gross 8%, without capital gains) for long term investors. Can it go lower? It could, your choice, sit on the sidelines and wait if you like but the market just might go the other way. And before anyone says it, yes the value might get even better but what if it doesn't and heads well north? Good luck with your investments.

 

[Newt]

I am the first to admit that I don't know much about technical analysis so that's why I am posting here rather than ruin a good thread with the experts.

We first hit these levels we are currently at almost 10 years ago. 5,000 on the XAO is an extremely strong support line. Everytime we hit it (or just below it) the market jumps. People start buying and I have too. We have hit this level or just near it around 8 times in the last 6 Months. (give or take 100 points)

Putting everything into context, I maintain my position, this is a very good entry point to get set with your long term portfolios, (just my opinion of course). I have pumped both mine and my wife's super up, just a bit, not massive amounts, just in case we get better opportunities later.

I believe the world is not coming to an end. I do not believe the China story is over, they will be consuming for a long time yet, all be it at a slower pace. I also believe Australia is not a basket case, we do have some edges that not many places can match.

In summary, the value is there right now (distributions a gross 8%, without capital gains) for long term investors. Can it go lower? It could, your choice, sit on the sidelines and wait if you like but the market just might go the other way. And before anyone says it, yes the value might get even better but what if it doesn't and heads well north? Good luck with your investments.

Great post Bill.
I don't invest a lot of energy in (trying to) predict market direction, but trend and support areas (and general price volatility) since April 2015 on the weekly XAO fit well with 2011. That is, quite a lot of eratic price movement, possibly sketching out new support for positive moves in many months time. Difficult to see a reason for the world coming to an end right now - cautious buying at lows for long term portfolios seems a wise contrarian investment.

 

[Logique]

The midday news, and on cue, it's Craig James of CommSec.

It opened down, but it's coming back, says 'Pollyanna' Craig, surprising everybody

Sigh.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

sometimes the market opens up in the morning down

and quite frequently it close down for the day up

 

[CanOz]

We first hit these levels we are currently at almost 10 years ago. 5,000 on the XAO is an extremely strong support line. Everytime we hit it (or just below it) the market jumps. People start buying and I have too. We have hit this level or just near it around 8 times in the last 6 Months. (give or take 100 points)

The key here, is how the market reacts to the retest of that level

Buyers, or sellers?