XAO Banter Thread

[shouldaindex]

Permanent Gains for the past 30 years. I'd estimate they took about 8 years all up, so around 75% of the time we're in drawdowns on a monthly basis.

 

[shouldaindex]

You can see anytime the XAO or Dow Jones has seperated in the past month it's gotten back together within a few days. Might be just the half day delay effect, but either way the correlation is very strong.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Comparing the declines now with historicals, this one is tame. With the Syrian war entering a new phase of conflicting interest, optimism could easily turn down.

 

[Logique]

The XAO is intently searching for the bottom, like a swimmer just out of their depth at the beach.

I can see the adventurous deploying a little risk capital at this point.

The more cautious will wait to see if the 5,000 level holds, or we break down to the 4100-4500 range.

 

[skc]

You can see anytime the XAO or Dow Jones has seperated in the past month it's gotten back together within a few days. Might be just the half day delay effect, but either way the correlation is very strong.

View attachment 64562

What is this chart actually plotting? The close price for both indices?

Remember that there are time differences between the close of the two indices, so you can't really make too much out of it using this chart alone.

 

[craft]

Guys, remember craft is worth mega-$$$$$$. This will remove certain stresses and pressures for performance and regularity of profits.

Mmmm wonder how that happened? Hasn't always been the case.

I was just answering a question about my threshold for draw down – I wasn’t implying the same should go for anybody else. I have no bones if for financial or psychological reasons you want a smoother equity curve – if you do the shorter the time frame the better, all that matters on short time frame is price ... and of course like any time frame, being good at what you do.

Not that it matters to me, since I don't understand any of his posts ayway.

So buying shares for the cash flow they will generate is beyond your comprehension?

Always astounds me how some can’t comprehend an alternative to what the do whilst others

Perhaps some of the guys here that do a fair bit of fundamental research, i mean real solid research, can handle more of a draw down because they know companies they hold so well it gives them extra confidence. Also there is the dividend stream, nice.

Seem to comprehend it perfectly.

 

[craft]

Light Green = In Drawdown
Blue = Gains

I'd say it's probably 70/30 and that's just on a monthly basis.

I might do a clearer one if it's a quiet day.

View attachment 64560

Interesting analysis
90% was my guess - what ever the exact figure, It certainly seems consolidation or retreat is more the normal existence than advance. Not very sexy in an instant gratification culture.

It would be interesting to see if there is any difference on an accumulation index.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Mmmm wonder how that happened? Hasn't always been the case.

I was just answering a question about my threshold for draw down – I wasn’t implying the same should go for anybody else. I have no bones if for financial or psychological reasons you want a smoother equity curve – if you do the shorter the time frame the better, all that matters on short time frame is price ... and of course like any time frame, being good at what you do.



So buying shares for the cash flow they will generate is beyond your comprehension?

Always astounds me how some can’t comprehend an alternative to what the do whilst others



Seem to comprehend it perfectly.

I'm referring to your usual posts on economic ratios and such....OBVIOUSLY

 

[Logique]

The nerve of the shorts will be tested today. A squeeze will be on.

 

[Wysiwyg]

The nerve of the shorts will be tested today. A squeeze will be on.

The whole scene has relaxed considerably as if the low is in.

 

[CanOz]

Talk about a well bid market....the SPI

If the SPI can get through this resistance here between 5080 and 5100, we might see 5225 tested.

Done and dusted....

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Is it just me or is the Ords about to drop fairly hard? Seems like some distributuon going on.

 

[shouldaindex]

Looking at 2017 futures, it's about 200 points less than current XAO.

I'm not sure, but would think that is unusual.

 

[CanOz]

Looking at 2017 futures, it's about 200 points less than current XAO.

I'm not sure, but would think that is unusual.

Easy trade then, short the current contract and go long the 2017

 

[Wysiwyg]

If its drawdown’s you want to see then no need to go further than a long term stock picker – I specialise in drawdown – spend ~90% of my life in drawdown.

In draw down since 1st June, Max to date in this drawdown has been 13.4% currently down 8.3%

Business as usual as far as I’m concerned.

Yes I am nearing surface after the recent market enema with my longer term holds. I suppose you will be too. Not looking at them helped but I gotta get some balance between long holds and trading the Index moves considering cumulatively at various stages I held over 100 $1 long contracts below 5000 points and ended up with a smaller stack.

 

[Bill M]

It would make more sense to me anyway to get out of the market while it is going down and preserve your capital and then get back in when the uptrend starts again.

XAO closed at 5201 on that day 17 Sept 2015

Like yesterday?

Not yet....probably just a bounce still in a downtrend to me...weekly and monthly swing are still down!!

You wrote both those comments on the 17th. of September. Since then we saw the XAO close at 4958 which was the lowest point. Then it crept up to 5000, 5100, 5200, 5300 and now 5388.

Seeing that the XJO has busted through the 5300 resistance line, have you bought yet? If not, then at what point would you be buying?

 

[Triathlete]

XAO closed at 5201 on that day 17 Sept 2015





You wrote both those comments on the 17th. of September. Since then we saw the XAO close at 4958 which was the lowest point. Then it crept up to 5000, 5100, 5200, 5300 and now 5388.

Seeing that the XJO has busted through the 5300 resistance line, have you bought yet? If not, then at what point would you be buying?

To answer your question as best as I can and since I am a student of price ,pattern and time analysis it may be best that you take a look on my blog post regarding this topic and way of trading.

In simple terms I look for stocks that are trading on either a wave 3 or wave 5 typically if trading long and use time and price to compliment my decision.

There are presently a few stocks I am looking to trade currently when those rules are met.

 

[craft]

The accumulation index looks like a healthy consolidation above previous all time highs to me.

 

[craft]

Yes I am nearing surface after the recent market enema with my longer term holds. I suppose you will be too. Not looking at them helped but I gotta get some balance between long holds and trading the Index moves considering cumulatively at various stages I held over 100 $1 long contracts below 5000 points and ended up with a smaller stack.

Having the right head space for investing on a value basis and trading on a price basis is beyond me - My wife would say its because I'm a mere male and can only focus on one thing at a time - she's probably right.

 

[sinner]

Where is the return on XAO (and XJO) coming from?

Definitely not the small end of town.

S&P ASX100 (green) and S&P ASX Small Ordinaries (black)