Worst drought ever

[Uncle Festivus]

Rain clouds forming outside right now - here's hoping .

Rio Tinto Coal says it has been forced to cut jobs at its Tarong mine in Queensland's South Burnett region.
The company says up to 160 employee and contractor jobs will go over the next two months because the Tarong Power Station is reducing its output by up to 70 per cent due to the drought.
A Rio Tinto spokesman says affected workers can either apply for jobs at other sites or for voluntary redundancy packages.
The company spokesman says the Tarong mine will continue to operate safely.
The Premier, Peter Beattie, says it further demonstrates how serious the drought has become.
"I am concerned about it and I don't like it but the facts of life are we are in the worst drought on record and there are ramifications," he said.
"I don't like it one little bit but unfortunately when you've got a drought this is what happens.
"I just hope it will rain as quickly as possible."

 

[Smurf1976]

The story run in the Australian today about an alleged power shortage in Tasmania is, to be very polite, outright rubbish.

Read it here if you wish. http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21751738-5006788,00.html

I wish the Australian would stop playing what looks very much like a game of blatant politics. If you want to find someone who has run their dams to virtually empty then try Snowy Hydro. If you want to find power stations that are in actual danger of running out of water then you'll find them in NSW.

First they highlighted the situation in Queensland. Now it's Tasmania. But hardly a word is said about what's happening in NSW. Hmm... Don't want to worry anyone? Don't want to scare investors away from NSW?

Australia is potentially in very serious trouble if the drought continues. Recent rain comes nowhere near breaking it in the context of power generation.

Tasmania's dams and power supply is, in fact, doing somewhat better than that in NSW as is quite widely known in the industry. Sure, it could be better, but it's NSW where the real danger lies right now. Snowy storage is now below 4% in Lake Eucumbene and coal-fired plants in NSW are running lower on water than hydro plants in Tas.

There would hardly be a person living in Tas who doesn't know about Hydro's situation at the moment. It's been widely publicised through all available means. In contrast I'm guessing that 99% of Sydney residents haven't a clue that they're actually in a far worse situation much closer to home.

Denial and diverting attention isn't going to help NSW one bit if the drought continues. It's time to end this one state versus another nonsense and face reality in NSW as has already been done in Qld and Tas.

 

[Happy]

Massive scale tidal/wave power generation looks like not the worst idea, especially that pilot plant works well somewhere in NSW South Coast area.

 

[Smurf1976]

Looks like the media has finally got it.

I think we are in denial, and are going to have brownouts in NSW if we don't get snow this winter

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2007/05/18/1178995416714.html

 

[CanOz]

How widespread are the rains that you've had this week?

Imagine the run on effects of more expensive power.....especially to energy intensive business's like....mining, manufacturing.

Forget the metal prices, stock market bubbles, political parties...this is the greatest threat to everyone and yet the most understated, under funded, 'bury your head in the sand' subject there is!

If and when i move back to Australia i think i'll build a solar home...maybe by that time the rebates will be much higher. I nearly went solar on the last home i built, but at the time it didn't pay, but with higher prices, it might actually pay-back if you had enough to feed back into the grid, which is possible with hybrid generation like solar/wind.

Cheers,

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Looks like the media has finally got it.

Yes, it's now making the nightly TV news.

If and when i move back to Australia i think i'll build a solar home...maybe by that time the rebates will be much higher. I nearly went solar on the last home i built, but at the time it didn't pay, but with higher prices, it might actually pay-back if you had enough to feed back into the grid, which is possible with hybrid generation like solar/wind.

Cheers,

The rains have been excellent but have basically gone straight into the ground, very little run-off into cooling water dams, & certainly will not alleviate the power generation problems.

I think solar is turning out to be a lost cause. The latest data indicates a supply squeeze for the raw material used in making solar panels, so they will end up being even more expensive than they are now.

I understand grid connected solar also has a major drawback in that if the grid goes down eg blackout, it's a requirement that your solar system is also disconnected, so you end up with a blackout afterall. Maybe someone who has one can elaborate. The answer is to be self contained I think.

 

[CanOz]

The latest data indicates a supply squeeze for the raw material used in making solar panels, so they will end up being even more expensive than they are now.

.

hmmm, whats the best exposure to this potential UF?

cheers,

 

[chops_a_must]

hmmm, whats the best exposure to this potential UF?

cheers,

I'm pretty sure it's silver Can. From memory a lot of mineral sands type products as well.

Cheers,
Chops.

 

[CanOz]

Good grief, Silver? What a rally thats been.

I see Smurf's comments about the drought and power pricing/generation are on the front cover of the AFR today.

I really wonder how much electricity needs to increase before i seriously starts to affect miners and thier ability to compete? Another variable in the already complex supply and demand issues associated with the commod boom...great.

Cheers,

 

[Uncle Festivus]

hmmm, whats the best exposure to this potential UF?

cheers,

From memory, I think it's mineral sands & silicon.

Good grief, Silver? What a rally thats been.

I see Smurf's comments about the drought and power pricing/generation are on the front cover of the AFR today.

I really wonder how much electricity needs to increase before i seriously starts to affect miners and thier ability to compete? Another variable in the already complex supply and demand issues associated with the commod boom...great.

Cheers,

I think it could be a double edged sword - increasing prices & possible blackouts. They can't compete at all without electricity. If it does get to that stage though miners will be the last thing on the politicians minds with an angry populace asking questions.There is the remote possibility that commodity prices could increase because of it, but those who can't produce will miss out obviously. Purely conjecture at this stage, but possible.

When the people who work in power stations start buying generators you know somethings going on.

 

[Smurf1976]

It's not getting any better on the mainland but Hydro Tas storage was stable for the past week at 19%. Six successful (rain producing) cloud seeding flights so far this season have helped lift storage from 17% three weeks ago.

 

[Smurf1976]

When the people who work in power stations start buying generators you know somethings going on.

You might be able to get some rather large ones real cheap if it doesn't rain...: : :

 

[Julia]

It's not getting any better on the mainland but Hydro Tas storage was stable for the past week at 19%. Six successful (rain producing) cloud seeding flights so far this season have helped lift storage from 17% three weeks ago.

Smurf, will cloud seeding work anywhere, or is it essentially suited to the Tasmanian conditions? i.e. would it be helpful in SE Qld?

 

[macca]

If ever we needed an example of the pettiness of politicians here is another

http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/what-is-victorias-problem/2007/05/23/1179601447552.html

This is why we have a water crisis in the Murray Darling, state pollies on their own liitle power trips

 

[Smurf1976]

You may have heard about the energy ministers meeting and a report prepared by NEMMCO regarding the drought's impact on electricity supplies.

You can read it here.

http://www.nemmco.com.au/nemgeneral/900-0001.pdf

In short, the report says:

2007/08 season:

NSW - Maybe a small problem next summer but the lights will stay on most of the time.

Qld - Much the same as NSW but the problem is considerably bigger.

Vic - The power supply isn't up to scratch anyway and the drought will only make it worse. But the lights will still be on most of the time.

SA - Much the same as Vic but a bit worse.

Tas - 100% generation system reliability is forecast as long as nothing truly unexpected happens.

For 2008 - 09:

NSW, Qld and SA - Most load will still be supplied but quite a few failures could occur during Summer - enough to have the business lobby screaming and the newspapers in a frenzy.

Vic - Better than the others but there could still be problems.

Tas - The Hydro will keep the lights on so you can watch the news covrage of the blackouts on the mainland. Same as 2007-08. There are some risks for both years however - Bell Bay needs to keep running flat out and also not being sucked dry supplying Victoria 24/7 if something drastic did happen there (breakdown, strikes, mine fires etc).

Note that the report addresses only GENERATION of electricity and not transmission and distribution. It's quite possible to have adequate generation but still get blackouts if transmission or distribution failures occur. (The blackout last Summer in Melbourne was due to a transmission failure, for example).

The major thing the report DOESN'T address is the issue of price. Physical supply is one thing, retailers and major users staying in business during a price spike is another. It was financial, not technical, failure that was the problem in California and the situation we have now in Australia is not greatly dissimilar.

 

[BIG BWACULL]

Has the drought broken? Hope so.

Spirits lifted as mountain rivers run

* Milanda Rout
* June 04, 2007

HAPPINESS for Tony Bullen has been watching the Jamieson River rage back into life with rains that have lifted spirits throughout Victorian alpine country communities.

"It's a great way to spend a Sunday, watching the water go past," he said.

"It gives you hope that things are going back to normal. There is still a long way to go but every day more water comes in it gets better."

 

[prawn_86]

This is why we have a water crisis in the Murray Darling, state pollies on their own liitle power trips

agreed macca,
my father is a fruit and veg grower in the riverland, and faces having 0% water allocations at the end of the month. this means that his income will effectively be stripped from him, as it has already been cut in half.
and now that we have had a small amount of rain the poliss are happy to sit back and 'wait and see' as they always do and hope like hell that it rains or that they get their pension and dont have to do anything.
why arnt things been done now for the future???
and imo if water alocations for growers do get cut to 0% then there will be potential for huge law suits against the government for failing duty of care etc.
anyone out there with a law background have an opinion on this? as i would be interested to know where they stand

 

[Smurf1976]

Regarding the electricity situation, the grid is sitting very close to the edge in NSW right at this moment (17:50).

One problem at one power station and it's blackouts... Wholesale prices are running at about 250 times the long term average level too.

 

[wayneL]

Not a drop of rain around the midwest yet... and the local farmboys are getting a bit antsy. Quite a few face financial ruin this year if they don't come... and to think there were record prices for farmland around here only last year. Sheesh!

 

[2020hindsight]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200706/s1952340.htm

Friday, June 15, 2007. 12:41pm (AEST)
Sobbing woman watched authorities shoot cattle: sister
The RSPCA and police are under pressure to explain the actions of a team that raided a small property near Pilliga, west of Narrabri in northern New South Wales, yesterday to destroy drought-afflicted cattle.

Claire Roache's sister 71-year-old Ruth Downey, who owns the property, phoned her at the height of the drama claiming an RSPCA inspector, police and a member of the Rural Lands Protection Board took part in the raid.

Mrs Roache says while the cattle were affected by the drought, they were well cared for.

She alleges another sister May was also on the property and watched as the cattle were chased around the small farm being shot on the run.

"When I phoned May she was absolutely sobbing," Mrs Roache said.

"She said 'the cattle are running around, they have to chase them to shoot them', so it shows they're not that weak.

"She said 'they aren't shooting them in the head with one bullet, they're giving them two or three bullets and shooting them in the stomach and they're lying there kicking'."

Several attempts were made to contact the RSPCA and police from the Barwon local area command for comment yesterday.