Worst drought ever

[Smurf1976]

Some more gossip in the event of power cuts. The rumor is that some of the aluminium smelters have borderline/average profit margins & that if they were forced to shut down due to power outages (due to lack of water) that they might not start back up again. Don't know if it's true but sounds plausible.
Now, when does Costello's increased solar panel rebate come into effect?

Aluminium smelting is indeed a very electricity price sensitive business.

In short, aluminium smelting is by far the largest industry that comes to the power rather than the reverse. Bell Bay (Tas) and Tiwai Point (NZ) are both classic examples. Import the ore, refine it, and export the metal. Electricity is the only local raw material and it is by far the largest component of the total cost.

To produce just one kilogram of aluminium metal takes enough power to run a 100 watt light bulb for a week. That's just one small block of aluminium.

The Bell Bay smelter actually uses more power than every house in Tasmania (and that's with very high domestic power use in Tas compared to the other states) or 25% of the state's entire load. Tiwai Point uses about 15% of NZ's power generation.

From a technical perspective, shutting one of these plants down isn't easy but it can be done. The main objective is to avoid ending up with solid (cold) metal in the pots - do that and the only solution is months of jack hammering out hundreds of pots (it won't melt - it's nowhere near as simple as it sounds).

So with sufficient (weeks) notice it's possible to do an orderly shutdown of part or all of a smelter. Just empty the pots one at a time (over 500 of these things at Bell Bay alone and they are massive - think something the size of a van (each) with over half a megawatt constantly pumped through it).

Bell Bay was partially shut during the mid-1990's due to a glut of aluminium on world markets. Also it was partially shut during the 1968 power crisis. In both cases the shutdown was orderly over a number of weeks and in both cases the smelter not only returned to full production, but went on to set new production records.

A short notice shut down is an entirely different problem however. A couple of hours without power is OK. But once the metal sets, it's game over unless the pots are mechanically dug (jack hammered) out and the plant restarted. A massive cost and months of lost production.

So if we're going to shut any smelters due to insufficient power, proper planning is essential otherwise the shutdown could well become permanent.

The smelters typically buy 5% or so, their "ripple" load, power on the spot market. They'll stop maximising production, just run at the baseload instead, if that gets too expensive. Not sure about individual smelters but Bell Bay's done that for ages (a spot price in Tas was basically invented for them years before anyone had heard the term "electricity market"). Tiwai Point does it too, not sure about those in Qld, NSW, Vic but I assume they maximise current through the pots when conditions allow.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

All of a sudden it's an 'unprecedented development' & 'unforeseen'.

THE security of Victoria's electricity supply is under a cloud after the emergence of threats to the operation of some of the state's key generators.
In an unprecedented development, power companies have been forced to buy emergency supplies of water on the internet after the drought left them short of what they need to run major generators in the Latrobe Valley.
The move has prompted fears about the long-term viability of the region's power stations, which provide 85 per cent of Victoria's electricity.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/natio...as-power-supply/2007/05/09/1178390390080.html

 

[Smurf1976]

All of a sudden it's an 'unprecedented development' & 'unforeseen'.

THE security of Victoria's electricity supply is under a cloud...

Looks like we're going to be sitting on $100 / MWh in the afternoons now that Laverton North is effectively an off-peak power station due to environmental problems (now there's a concept - a power plant that only runs when you don't need it...).

Snowy was about 4.6% in Lake Eucumbene a week or so ago and they've been letting more out since then. Probably be even more now with Laverton North restricted.

It's going to get real interesting next Summer if this keeps up. Actually, worst case we might not need to wait that long...

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Maybe electricity is the new uranium! Spot prices averaging $80 last month with market alerts ie low reserves. I think there is a NEMMCO futures contract out there somewhere, needs some more research.

http://www.nemmco.com.au/

http://www.yamahagenerators.com.au/

 

[2020hindsight]

Claims that only 0.5% of $10 billion !!! has been allocated . Presumably they are talking about last budget allocation (?)

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200705/s1921342.htm Govt 'hoarding' water funds
Federal Opposition water spokesman Anthony Albanese says this week's Budget papers show the Government is not serious about the water crisis.

Mr Albanese says the Government has tried to win election-year points by committing $10 billion to major water projects but the Budget papers show it has been hoarding most of the money. He says less than 0.5 per cent of the Government's $10 billion water plan has been allocated.

"John Howard can't have it both ways," he said. "He can't acknowledge that we're in a water crisis and yet refuse to take real action and that is what is occurring.

"We know also that this week's Budget had no new initiative on climate change or the water crisis." Mr Albanese says the Howard Government has only acknowledged the water crisis because it is an election year.

Democrats Senator Lyn Allison says it shows the Government's commitment to managing the water crisis is superficial. "It's breathtaking the way he's pretended to be doing something about the water crisis but is just kicking around the issue for crass political gain," she said.

Mr Albanese says the Government fails to accept that the water crisis and climate change are inseparable.

 

[Smurf1976]

This is getting serious. I'm thinking this ought to be on a separate electricity thread (?) but I'll leave it here for the moment. And for those interested, there's certainly been a good trading opportunity here.

In short, prices are going through the roof for wholesale electricity.

Major users are faced with literally 100% price rises when contracts come up for renewal.

Retailers, the companies that sell power to homes and small business, are potentially in a very serious situation. They're selling power at capped prices but some are exposed to fluctuating wholesale spot prices. This is essentially what happened in California - being forced to buy high and sell low sends the retailers broke.

Drought is part of the problem. But more seriously the competitive market model has, with a few notable exceptions mostly driven by state governments, largely failed to deliver new investment in baseload generation. Exact same thing as happened in the first half of the 20th Century prior to the state electricity authorities being set up and exactly what many predicted when the competitive market was first proposed.

Regarding the link below, I'm pretty sure that they're right about someone losing a fortune. Actually there's more than one that comes to mind as being rather exposed financially but one in particular is acting as though they're desperate for short term cash. I suspect they're so committed with contracts that they can't afford not to generate no matter what the consequences (as in major blackouts) if they actually run dry. I don't know this for certain, it's speculation, so I'll leave names out but I'm not talking about Hydro Tas.

On the subject of Tas, obvioulsy the price has been increased in line with prices in Victoria to avoid increased production at off-peak times (which would be unsustainable) but, apart from some plants out for maintenance (normal), peak generation is business as usual despite what the article claims. Also the 36 year old Bell Bay (gas fired) station is in full production for the first time since 2005.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21715621-643,00.html

 

[Uncle Festivus]

This is getting serious. I'm thinking this ought to be on a separate electricity thread (?) but I'll leave it here for the moment. And for those interested, there's certainly been a good trading opportunity here.

I was thinking the same thing but I get enough flak for starting gloom & doom threads already .

If there was one single X factor that will bring the economic purple patch crashing down it will be water, & the flow on effects of having none.

No water - no electricity.

No electricity - no economy.

Maybe a thread for alternative energy might be useful?

 

[macca]

At least the ABC is consistent, never let a chance go by to attack the Libs.

The Libs are the first govt EVER to actually address the water problem.

Before they spend money to fix it I tend to think that it would be prudent to talk to all parties concerned and decide the best way to start.

Like all things political it must be done by consensus and committees, too bad the Vic govt won't be involved.

We have an empty river system for two reasons, firstly lack of rain and secondly the LABOR state governments have over sold the water.

Even after the Feds announced they would try to get agreement on how to improve the situation and asked the states to help, the Labor Govt in QLD sold more water rights to a tributary to the Darling.

I don't agree with a lot of the Feds actions but it really makes me wonder why we bother publicly funding a propaganda machine for one political party.

 

[2020hindsight]

If there was one single X factor that will bring the economic purple patch crashing down it will be water, & the flow on effects of having none.

"water and it's flow on effects" !! ??
We're being flooded with all this doom uncle, and we're drowning in pessimism - and you come up with a pun like that !!!.
Also I heard the word "poor maintenance of generators" recently - reminds me of the islands

Macca,
I think the point I was trying to make was that - Although the libs showed initiative way back when (last election) and allocated money to the Murray/Darling - question is how much of it has been spent. Do you know? That article would suggest almost none !?

 

[Smurf1976]

Took some more photos today. In order, Gordon Dam (140m high and also the world's highest commecial abseil), Lake Gordon, Lake Pedder. All are located in SW Tas.

This is the largest fresh water storage in Australia with an active storage of 10114 GL under normal operating conditions and total storage 27 times the size of Sydney Harbour.

Lake Gordon is at 18.7% full whilst Lake Pedder is only 1.2 metres below full. The level in Lake Pedder is normally held within 1.5m of full to enhance the scenic value although it may be dropped further under emergency conditions.

Water from both lakes is used at the Gordon power station, located underground 184m below the top level of Lake Gordon. It is the largest single source of renewable electricity in Australia (Murray 1 in the Snowy scheme is a very close second).

Average water discharge is just over 100,000 litres per second with a peak discharge rate of about 290,000 litres per second. None of that water is used for anything other than power generation.

 

[macca]

Hi 2020,

The problem is that it is fine to say "lets try and fix this water problem", but the nitty gritty is HOW does one fix it.

The Govt cannot make rain, all they can do is buy back allocations issued by the states, perhaps create weirs to slow the floods, improve the management of the river banks to avoid erosion and pollution plus some other things which farmers and other experts may recommend.

You can't buy back allocations if people won't sell, you can't build weirs until you decide the best place to put them, you can't enter private land without consultation with the owners
and you can't limit any more pumping rights until you get control of the river water back from the states.

All of these things have been instigated but they all take time to decide, we are working by consensus and committee, nothing happens quickly in any sort of political arena.

The other problem is that Victoria refused to come on board at the summit, so that means that even if the Feds fixed the over allocation in Qld and NSW in an effort to help downstream, eg SA, then Vic farmers can still pump out all the water as they are not part of the agreement.

This article is a political beat up by the Labor party enthusiastically supported by their free publicity machine.

I don't mind the political beat up, that is all part of the game which any thinking adult is used to, but I do object to the persistent use of my money to publicise the view point of only one side of our political spectrum.

 

[2020hindsight]

All of these things have been instigated but they all take time to decide, we are working by consensus and committee, nothing happens quickly in any sort of political arena.

maca
some good points
appropriate that you refer to committees when we are getting into camel country
but please lay off the ABC lol - they's only the messenger

 

[macca]

Hi 2020,


One thing this country lacks is an unbiased news service, it seems in the modern era that we get the editors' opinions on the news, rather than just the news.

Go back 20 years the ABC was brilliant, basically we were given the details of the news and we were allowed to form our own decisions, others weren't bad but the ABC was the best.

I guess I miss the opportunity to hear the news and take in the facts, these days when I hear or read the news I have to be aware of which BS filter I need to use to actually sort out the facts.

The good old days ................ hahaha

 

[Rafa]

macca, i think you'll find the bias in most of the commercial (especially news ltd owned) media well and truly counters any bias that ABC might have.

and in the end, what is bias anyway... its simply someone who has an opposing view to yourself.

 

[Julia]

and in the end, what is bias anyway... its simply someone who has an opposing view to yourself.

Great definition, Rafa.

 

[2020hindsight]

macca - I just think that if indeed only (less than) 0.5% of budget allocation has been spent, (or even allocated to specific projects) - (and here we are well into the election cycle) then that deserves to be brought out.. I don't see anyone denying it btw

Isn't it healthy for these things to be aired - and for the counter argument to be likewise aired (if there is one) ?

btw, what's your opinion of the govt spending a motsa advertising their industrial relations "fine tuning" with public money - in an election year. I realise that Labour did exactly the same thing - (they are all as bad as each other) - but when this happens , I just start looking for a third option

 

[new girl]

btw, what's your opinion of the govt spending a motsa advertising their industrial relations "fine tuning" with public money - in an election year. I realise that Labour did exactly the same thing - (they are all as bad as each other) - but when this happens , I just start looking for a third option

I think the government should sit down with the greens and start listening instead of doing all the advertising/talking/thinking on behalf of the people of auz.

 

[macca]

Normally I would agree that it is unfair to splurge big dollars on trumpeting Gov't achievements in the run up to elections, witness NSW recently, we had 2 adds in every add break for the Gov't and one an hour for the Libs. The amount of money the Labor spent on TV would have paid for a motorway

As an ex small business owner I had to be very aware of the draconian, unfair, unfair dismissal laws

But I do think the Libs have gone way too far the other way now, I really don't think it is realistic to expect an 18 year old at a job interview, to be negotiating terms of employment.

On the other hand, I have read that in a lot of industries the employees are very happy with their AWAs and want to keep them.

It is reasonable for the Gov't to spend some money to explain to people what their rights are, so that they know if their employer is doing the wrong thing.

There is also the HUGE amount of scaremongering being done by the ACTU, where some of the adds have been proven to be wrong.

So I guess under the circumstances I can understand the Fed Gov't is going to spend up to counterbalance the add campaign by the unions. They would have spent some money anyway, but they will really have to rip into it because the ACTU intends to spend millions up to the election.

I really do think the Libs need to act on the legislation tho, that might defuse some of the rightful anger felt by people who have been screwed by unscrupulous bosses.

Funny, when I had my businesses, it was so hard to find good honest, reliable staff that were prepared to actually work, all of my people were on above award money after their probation period, it was a real pain if one left.

 

[Smurf1976]

I think the government should sit down with the greens and start listening instead of doing all the advertising/talking/thinking on behalf of the people of auz.

The Greens are highly unlikely to be objective when it comes to water management. I don't doubt that they have some worthwhile ideas on the subject but the party was ultimately founded, via various steps, on the very basis of opposing water resource development.

Whilst I'm not saying it is necessarily the answer, the Greens couldn't consider any river diversion or major storage scheme as being part of the solution. Maybe it is part of the answer, maybe it isn't. Specifics aren't my point. The point is the Greens could not realistically be objective on the issue any more than Labor could be objective in a debate about the need for unions.

I should point out that, all things considered, I'm not opposed to the Greens and I actually do support quite a few of their ideas. But they don't in my opinion fit into the "objective" category when it comes to water. Drugs, religion, wars and working conditions maybe, but not water.

IMO what we should be doing is putting together a team of experts, not politicians, to sort out the mess. We have world class expertise in conservation issues, water storage management, agriculture, cloud seeding and civil engineering. Put them together and it ought to be possible to come up with something that, whilst it won't totally please everybody, fixes the fundamental problems without wrecking either the economy or the environment.

Trouble is, NONE of the major political parties, including the Greens, would likely support it without knowing in advance what the outcome would be. And that's the real problem. Too many decisions being made for political reasons rather than genuine environmental, economic or technical reasons. Too much emotion and not enough hard facts and science.

Leave it to those who know what they're doing IMO. You won't find them in parliament.

 

[Smurf1976]

and in the end, what is bias anyway... its simply someone who has an opposing view to yourself.

Trouble is, many people don't question what they read or hear. They only look at one side of the story and take that as being correct. Outright dangerous IMO.

Just look at the propaganda surrounding water tanks. Fair enough to say that they'll increase the supply of water which obviously they do and that right now this makes a lot of sense. But it's outright nonsense to be seeing "ïnstall a water tank" listed as one of the most important things to do in order to stop climate change.

That latter argument seems to be being pushed as "keep saying it and in due course they'll believe it" right now. Seen it several times in the past week alone and yet it's basically nonsense. Propaganda...