Worst drought ever

[Smurf1976]

OK, joke's over. I know we needed rain but not quite that much.

Floods in the Huon, floods in the Derwent Valley, floods in the North East, rain induced rock falls on the West Coast and too much snow bringing down the transmission lines from the South West.

It was still looking pretty drastic in Tas one week ago with the ongoing drought. Then someone turned the tap on...

I won't say the drought has ended though untill the major storages are back to reasonable levels (still about 18%). But it's a promising sign and everything else, smaller dams included, have more water than they can use at the moment.

Add the huge inflows to non-major storage plants in Tas (noting that they comprise 60% of the system) to the new coal plant coming online in Queensland and the end result has been an electricity price crash that makes the ASX look absolutely stable in comparison over the past few days. The major storages, both Snowy and Hydro Tas, need to rise for that to last however but it's a good start.

 

[macca]

Hi Smurf,

thanks for the update, when reading in the paper about the floods in Tas I actually thought of this thread.

Hopefully with a good snow season this year the SMA will have enough water to keep them operating over summer.

 

[Julia]

OK, joke's over. I know we needed rain but not quite that much.

Floods in the Huon, floods in the Derwent Valley, floods in the North East, rain induced rock falls on the West Coast and too much snow bringing down the transmission lines from the South West.

It was still looking pretty drastic in Tas one week ago with the ongoing drought. Then someone turned the tap on...

I won't say the drought has ended though untill the major storages are back to reasonable levels (still about 18%). But it's a promising sign and everything else, smaller dams included, have more water than they can use at the moment.

Add the huge inflows to non-major storage plants in Tas (noting that they comprise 60% of the system) to the new coal plant coming online in Queensland and the end result has been an electricity price crash that makes the ASX look absolutely stable in comparison over the past few days. The major storages, both Snowy and Hydro Tas, need to rise for that to last however but it's a good start.

We would love some of that in Qld, Smurf. Oh so dry here.
What does your figure 18% above represent? If you have more water than you know what to do with, why would storage levels only be 18%?
Sorry if I'm missing something obvious.

 

[Aussiejeff]

So, we think this dry period is bad..... check out the following site which shows a correlation between natural disasters (such as drought) with the level of sunspot activity - which as it happens is at a minimum in the current solar cycle.

Then read the conclusion - which is that 2011 (the sunspot maximum year) should be a bumper year for natural catastrophes including droughts. Something to look forward to eh, given that we think the situation is already bad enough in a sunspot minimum year!

http://72.14.253.104/search?q=cache.../Pages/Results.html+&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=6&gl=au

Cheers?

AJ

 

[Aussiejeff]

....and notwithstanding the torrential coastal downpours that have topped up the sea levels (sic) here's the latest Murray Darling Basin Commision's weekly report summary regarding the outlook for inland water storages within the basin.

"SUMMARY

The situation is very serious. Although storages are rising slowly, we still have a long way to go to reach even the level of water availability at this time last year. Daily inflow rates have receded to levels observed in late May. Contingency measures are in place to save water, including the disconnection of some wetlands to reduce losses due to evaporation. The outlook for 2007/08 remains grim and is highly dependant on rainfall over the next three months. The months from November to May do not typically yield substantial inflows, as rainfall declines and evaporation losses increase."

In my local area, Dartmouth Dam (now 14% of capacity compared to 49% this time last year) and Hume Dam (now 24% of capacity compared to 52% this time last year) are WAAAAY down on the refill rates. At the present paltry fill rates, by mid November Hume Dam will only get to about 35-40% (compared to 94% last year) and Dartmouth Dam will only get to about 25-30% (compared to 65% last year).

To state the bleeding obvious, this regional drought ain't over till its over... regardless of how much water the coastal strips receive.

Parched AJ

 

[justjohn]

According to last nights news ,us up here on the Central Coast (GOSFORD ) had our wettest August day for 90years and we really needed it just hope some of it landed near our catchment area:

 

[ormond]

Just wondering how much it would cost to set up a political party in SA.
I think i will call it the "water infrastucture party"
While we are forced to do any watering by "buckets only" our gov. seems to be doing f--k all as far a any major projects to secure our future water supply.
I think i may be able to get plenty of votes even though this would be a single platform party.

 

[Smurf1976]

We would love some of that in Qld, Smurf. Oh so dry here.
What does your figure 18% above represent? If you have more water than you know what to do with, why would storage levels only be 18%?
Sorry if I'm missing something obvious.

It's an incredibly complex thing to explain, but...

Any consideration of major water storage in Tas is fundamentally a question of power generation rather than water per se. Around 98% of all water use in Tas is for hydro-electricity and apart from Hobart, Launceston, Burnie and Devonport plus a couple of irrigation schemes the state doesn't have much in terms of non-electricity water infrastructure. Water restrictions in the smaller towns occur most years in Summer even if the Winter was wet since they lack adequate storage.

To put it in figures, Hydro's total discharge from river systems (that which flows into the sea) is about 45,000 megalitres per day and the total volume passing through the power stations is about 120,000 megalitres per day (since the water is used between 1 and 9 times depending on where it enters the system).

This compares with Sydney's daily consumption of around 1500 megalitres per day or Hobart's 110 megalitres per day. The Snowy discharges about 8,000 megalitres per day with about 23,000 megalitres passing through power stations.

Topography precluded the construction of large storages where much of the hydro-electric potential exists (though there are 2 very large storages). Also it was impractical to link the catchment areas hydraulically (with some minor exceptions) for the same reasons.

In short, it was far more practical to build separate power stations where the water is available than to move the water to a smaller number of (larger) power stations.

Trouble is, this means that some of the catchment ares have very little storage capacity. Collectively these produce over 50% of total generation despite holding less than 5% of total storage. In a flood, they will fill to 100% and spill even though the major storages remain low.

The major storages hold 80% of the total energy in storage when full but contribute only 30% of annual average output. They will in practice never be full and should never be empty.

The means of water management between catchments is to vary production rates rather than physically move the water. For example, if some of the smaller dams have a lot of water coming in then the associated power stations will run flat out 24/7. That enables less (or no) generation from the power stations using water from the major storages thus allowing their level to rise at whatever rate water is flowing into them. Reverse if it's dry.

It comes down to cost. If a dam and power station can capture 98% of the potential from a given river then it just isn't economic to get the last 2% that is the occasional flood. In the case of the major storages which have never been full those flows are captured. But for the smaller schemes the only economic option is to accept a few % loss.

The level in the major storages is now just over 20% and it's 27% for the system as a whole. That said, the levels in the small storages are very high and some are still at 100% - they are being used as much as possible whilst the power stations drawing on the major storages are essentially shut down at the moment. Strange as it may seem, it isn't good to have the small storages too high - keeping them lower will on average reduce the amount of spill and maximise long term output. But you don't want them too low...

All of this water management stuff is quite similar to share trading really. Positive expectancy (inflows greater than outflows or at least equal), good money management (never run dry) and position sizing (minimise spill - keep the available water spread across the system).

 

[ormond]

Fire bans in SA tommorrow is a scarey thought for august but something still baffles me about our current water restrictions!
5% of Murray Darling Basin water is used in SA

If all domestic water use (65% of SA water supply) were to come only from that allocation (no catchment rainfall into reservoirs) then 65% of that 5% is 3.25%

If garden use represents 40% of the household use then 40% of the 3.25% means that 1.3% of total Murray River water used in SA would be used on gardens.

This makes the banning of drippers seem ludacris decision by our goverment.
It pisses me off seeing people in their 70's and 80's lugging buckets around their gardens!5% of Murray Darling Basin water is used in SA

If all domestic water use (65% of SA water supply) were to come only from that allocation (no catchment rainfall into reservoirs) then 65% of that 5% is 3.25%

If garden use represents 40% of the household use then 40% of the 3.25% means that 1.3% of total Murray River water used in SA would be used on gardens.
Not good enough!
p.s our largest reservoir is at 79% capacity

 

[nioka]

We would love some of that in Qld, .

I gather that you got your wish answered with the recent rains in Southern Qld. Hope you had enough and were not one of those flooded out'

 

[Smurf1976]

Fire bans in SA tommorrow is a scarey thought for august but something still baffles me about our current water restrictions!
5% of Murray Darling Basin water is used in SA

There's a degree of politics in it. I think you'll see those restrictions stay even if storage hits 100% and there's an outright flood. It'll be "Monday's for the Murray" even if half the country is outright flooded.

Something very similar was tried in Hobart a few years ago followed by a campaign to install water meters. A few years and countless letters to the editor by numerous people later, the council finally backed down acknowledging that there wasn't much point in having 98.1% flowing out to sea rather than 98.0%.

As for the politics, two points really. It was the Greens and likeminded people promoting the notion that water is scarce and therefore needs to be expensive. That was always the key point - it's scarce stuff and people need to pay pay PAY for it. Nobody ever said what would be done with the money...

Also involved was the Property Council of Australia pushing for meters (but not restrictions) since this would, in theory at least, financially benefit their office block owning members through lower rates.

The scam was exposed and that's the last anyone heard of it. The whole thing was a loser financially and resulted in a net increase in greenhouse gas emissions due to the need for someone to drive around reading the meters.

The real danger with permanent restrictions is that, over time, system capacity is only built to meet that restricted demand even with normal rainfall. Then when there is a drought or something else goes wrong (eg pumps break down) there's nothing else left to restrict apart from the "hard" options such as drinking and washing.

It's certainly reasonable and sensible to impose water restrictions when problems occur. But relying on them permanently is outright dangerous. Those places that do it will in due course learn the hard way and will end up with bans on hand washing after using the toilet (also banned from flusing) and inspectors running around making sure you're wearing your clotes multiple times before washing them.

As for the drought, I'm anything but convinced it's over. Some spectacular falls of rain in several states maybe but, here at least, the underlying weather pattern is anything but normal. A big dump immediately followed by a return to very low rainfall which is basically what's been happening ever since this drought started - an underlying dry bias.

 

[Rafa]

p.s our largest reservoir is at 79% capacity

I beleive if all of SA water storages, excluding the murray are at 100%, that still is only enough domestic water consumption for about 1 year...

so at this stage, i am happy for water restrictions to save... as every 10% saved is another month or two's water supply...

and from what i've read, murray storages are still only at around 20% (compared to over 50% at this time last year)... so given what we have now (and not considering any of the what ifs and what should haves)... there doesn't seem to be much other option.

 

[Aussiejeff]

Well, QLD'ers have been whinging about their Level 5 water restrictions making life tough for them.

They should be so lucky. At least they are allowed to use buckets or watering cans from an outside tap on designated days to top up ponds or water essential established trees.

Wodonga's current Level 4 restrictions are by far more draconian. They allow for NO GARDEN WATERING AT ALL - fullstop. NO LAWN WATERING AT ALL - full stop. The only tiny concession is that "re-cycled" water may be bucketed out. Looks like me and the wife will have to start pissing regularly on the few trees we are trying to grow for shade - or else wash our clothes more regularly!

Sigh......

I'm afraid householders here are shortly going to "hit the wall" when it comes to maintaining their garden trees, given the current big dry and miserable long-range forecasts....

AJ

 

[Smurf1976]

Winter's over and I'm starting to think we might just be in a bit more trouble than most seem to realise.

In short, most major water storages are lower now than this time last year which means there's a real chance of some of them reaching zero next Autumn if this Summer is dry.

Also concerning is that even someone with no interest whatsoever in the weather would surely have noticed Adelaide's record August temperature last week whilst even in Hobart it was 21 degrees. One warm day doesn't make a drought but overall the picture is concerning. Gardening guru Peter Cundall has also publicly noted that it doesn't look encouraging for an end to the drought based on his observations (which date back 50 years).

Major storage situation is as follows. In short, the capital city water situation is particularly serious in Brisbane with Melbourne, Adelaide and Canberra also facing serious problems. The situation has improved significantly in Sydney whilst Hobart's upstream supply continues to exceed demand.

The real issue however relates to irrigation and also the Snowy Hydro scheme. Storages are well down on last year and are frighteningly low in the Snowy. Meanwhile warm weather has lead to an early start to the irrigation season.

Note that the data is for active storage (the water that can be taken from the dam) and not total storage which is usually higher (though not usable for water supply purposes)

Cities

Sydney - 58.8% (41.0% this time last year)

Melbourne - 38.6% (about 47.5% this time last year)

Brisbane - 20.17% (about 28.5% this time last year)

Perth - 23.1% (20% this time last year)

Adelaide - 79% city area storages, upstream Murray storages see below.

Canberra - 42.6% (50% this time last year)

Hobart - About 85% city area storages, upstream Derwent hydro-electric storages are at 44.8% which is not a concern in regard to Hobart's urban water supply at this time.


Irrigation and hydro-electricity

Murray (excluding Snowy) - 18.7%

Snowy Hydro (Lake Eucumbene) - 6.6%

Blowering - 27.9%

Dartmouth - 14.4% (power station is completely unable to operate at this level though water can still be released for irrigation)

Lake Eildon - 19.4%

Hydro Tasmania* - 27.3% (32.0% this time last year)

*Hydro Tas figure is for system total energy in storage not water volume.

 

[2020hindsight]

One warm day doesn't make a drought but overall the picture is concerning.

One swallow does not make a summer.
Aristotle, Nichomachean Ethics
Greek critic, philosopher, physicist, & zoologist (384 BC - 322 BC)

then again , will there be any water to swallow

 

[Julia]

Well, QLD'ers have been whinging about their Level 5 water restrictions making life tough for them.

They should be so lucky. At least they are allowed to use buckets or watering cans from an outside tap on designated days to top up ponds or water essential established trees.

Wodonga's current Level 4 restrictions are by far more draconian. They allow for NO GARDEN WATERING AT ALL - fullstop. NO LAWN WATERING AT ALL - full stop. The only tiny concession is that "re-cycled" water may be bucketed out. Looks like me and the wife will have to start pissing regularly on the few trees we are trying to grow for shade - or else wash our clothes more regularly!

Sigh......

I'm afraid householders here are shortly going to "hit the wall" when it comes to maintaining their garden trees, given the current big dry and miserable long-range forecasts....

AJ

I feel for you, AJ. What is the problem? Is it lack of rainfall? Lack of storage capacity? Inadequate planning by governments?

Brisbane people do, however, have a right to feel aggrieved. For many years the State government has been crowing about Qld being the growth state of Australia, how wonderful it is that so many people want to come here to live and start businesses etc., but they have (until 12 months ago when they suddenl woke up to the fact that we were running out of water) completely ignored the need to upgrade the infrastructure. More than 1500 people per week move to Qld, most of these to the SE corner.
When people have spent many thousands of dollars creating beautiful gardens, it's really heartbreaking to see them die.

Btw, I'm not personally affected. I'm further north and our dam is up to 78% after recent rains.

 

[Smurf1976]

Let's see what the plane brings...

Cloud seeding extended in Tas.

http://www.hydro.com.au/home/Corpor...d+seeding+program+to+other+parts+of+State.htm

 

[Aussiejeff]

Let's see what the plane brings...

Cloud seeding extended in Tas.

http://www.hydro.com.au/home/Corpor...d+seeding+program+to+other+parts+of+State.htm

But.... I thought you stated in your previous post that ya'll lil' devils already had plenty of Chateau H2O!

Oh, I get it, once the Tassie clouds have been superseeded (sic), they will be towed over Bass Straight by Dick Smith's chopper to the Snowy to unload!

GREAT PLAN!!! I fully support this.....

As you can see, a serious lack of water can affect your mental state.... hehe

AJ

 

[Aussiejeff]

I feel for you, AJ. What is the problem? Is it lack of rainfall? Lack of storage capacity? Inadequate planning by governments?

All of the above, Julia. Though of the three factors you offered, the LAST one springs to mind as the most obvious one to fix first. But HOW? More government commissions? (god forbid!). Changes of Government? (the alternatives never seem better than the incumbents!)

Ah well, one day our "leaders" will do the right thing.

But well after I'm gone, for sure........

AJ

 

[macca]

Hi Jeff,

for the first time in history we have a federal government trying to do something about it, but the states won't let them

As usual, politics gets in the way of positive action