Who thinks there will be a slump?

[Julia]

I'm parked in cash and may miss out on a massive surge in prices, but I can live with that.

Me too. Capital preservation is the main priority.

Hi Uncle Festivus, I just can't believe the amount of people where I work , that have their money in high risk growth. The funny thing is they are near retirement age.

Isn't this due largely to a combination of apathy/powerlessness, and belief in the advice of their financial advisers?

ABC Local Radio last night had talkback with Daryl Dixon, Super expert.
A bloke phoned in to say he had inherited a mere $250,000 and wondered whether he should start a SMSF. He said he thought he'd find a financial adviser and essentially just turn over the whole responsibility to this person! He was clearly financially semi-literate at best.
To the credit of Daryl Dixon he suggested such an abrogation of responsibility to a FA was fraught with danger. He quoted Storm and the multitude of clients who did just this with well known results.

So perhaps this bloke is typical of many who may well have saved money but along the way have little idea about investing. They are utterly ripe for the picking as far as corrupt FA's are concerned. So if the FA suggested to such a person that their funds would be best employed in high growth managed funds, I doubt too many of these investors would even begin to question this.

 

[Smurf1976]

When, for example, some local councils are taking away gas operated outdoor heaters from cafes etc and suggesting the proprietors utilise blankets for patrons instead, then you have a real problem! A vote of 8 to 10 in favour of getting cafes to issue blankets for patrons is a vote for these small business operators to go under.

Are you saying that the council previously provided heating outdoors at ratepayers' expense and has now ceased doing so?

Or are you saying that council has passed some law to prevent cafes etc providing heating outdoors at private expense?

 

[Smurf1976]

Personally I think heating of outdoor areas of restaurants etc should be illegal.

Giving out blankets isn't the right substitute - just don't bloody sit outside if people think it's too cold!

I agree that those heaters are somewhat wasteful of energy, but if we're going to ban a 10kW heater then where does that leave us with a 200+kW V8 or 4WD car? Or even a 70kW small car?

The problem isn't that someone used a bit of gas sitting outside the restaurant. It's that they used a lot more energy (petrol) to get there in the first place. If there's a case for banning outdoor heaters then there's a far stronger case for just banning restaurants either indoor or out.

It could also be pointed out that the whole purpose of outdoor dining in the first place, other than in a few places where it has long been popular due to the climate, has a lot to do with the smoking restrictions indoors. I don't smoke, but many do and that's reality.

And of course whatever isn't spent on heaters, restaurants and cars will be spent on something else instead. And that something else will use energy in some form and will pollute.

Just leave it to business and individuals to decide what to do...

 

[tothemax6]

I'm not only cash, but short as well, have been for a while.....

Can I ask what factors originally motivated the short, and also how you placed the short? Cheers!

 

[sptrawler]

I agree that those heaters are somewhat wasteful of energy, but if we're going to ban a 10kW heater then where does that leave us with a 200+kW V8 or 4WD car? Or even a 70kW small car?

The problem isn't that someone used a bit of gas sitting outside the restaurant. It's that they used a lot more energy (petrol) to get there in the first place. If there's a case for banning outdoor heaters then there's a far stronger case for just banning restaurants either indoor or out.

It could also be pointed out that the whole purpose of outdoor dining in the first place, other than in a few places where it has long been popular due to the climate, has a lot to do with the smoking restrictions indoors. I don't smoke, but many do and that's reality.

And of course whatever isn't spent on heaters, restaurants and cars will be spent on something else instead. And that something else will use energy in some form and will pollute.

Just leave it to business and individuals to decide what to do...

This dicussion should probably be in the carbon tax debate but if the government was serious about carbon reduction why wouldn't they legislate to make all vehicles diesel or l.p.g by 2015. The technology is there , the fuel outlets are available, the carbon reduction is real. The problem is the government is full of SH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!t they are trying to repay past debts to past promisess to past pre selections.

 

[sptrawler]

Anyway getting back on thread I feel we are at the cusp or the knee point.

 

[LifeChoices]

Anyway getting back on thread I feel we are at the cusp or the knee point.

I've been thinking about poverty stocks, and industries to be in when it all goes belly up.

Today I came up with a pretty good idea - tattoo removal

There must be thousands of people out there with bad tattoos that can only become more un fashionable as the slump kicks in. I'll get a chemist to come up with some sort of cheap acid that may burn a bit, but will remove those unwanted tribal tats in a few minutes:

"Stick your arm in the bucket son - it won't hurt too much"

 

[Glen48]

Maybe cut them off and frame them and sell them on E bay under fine art.

Only things that you can eat, sleep in, does not need money to use or gives shelter willl be worth some thing the rest will be worth nothing soon

 

[Intrinsic Value]

I sold out 60 percent of my poftfolio last Friday.

I kept most of my FGE, MCE, and RMS bar 30 percent which i sold off.

Why did it do it?

Have been reading a lot lately of a correction and also noticed RM's fund was 85 precent cash so on the balance of what i have read and seen I thought it was prudent to keep a large chunk of cash for bargains.

Addidtionally there are a bunch of analysts still saying that the problems that surfaced through the GFC have not been addressed and that a GFC mark 2 is a certainty and only the timing fo it is in question.

 

[wayneL]

Over here in the shakey isles, the only thing holding us out from a technical recession is some of the export industries... timber, dairy etc.

The "mums and dads" economy is definitely in recession.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Can I ask what factors originally motivated the short, and also how you placed the short? Cheers!

Several fundamental factors as I have detailed ad nauseum in other posts for several years plus technically as per here -

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6395&p=632995&viewfull=1#post632995

I just use index cfd's through IG Markets (actually got lucky when they murdered Osama Bin Laden and the DOW futures spiked through 13k hitting a short order )

Keep an eye on the 3.30pm action in the DOW, or at least the last hr of trade to see where the pro's are going ie they let the Feds reflate the market only to sell or short?

 

[sptrawler]

Over here in the shakey isles, the only thing holding us out from a technical recession is some of the export industries... timber, dairy etc.

The "mums and dads" economy is definitely in recession.

Don't worry wayneL, we are in the same situation here, I went looking for a bedroom suite last week. 20 furniture shops later me and the better half were the only ones out there.
Got a deal on something we liked it was $3000 under what they were asking 6 months ago.

 

[joea]

Hi.
We have the April Building Approvals at 11.30 am, and the private sector credit growth data will be released today i think. or
Tomorrow the March quarter GDP will be released.

Cheers

 

[trainspotter]

Things are so bad that the Chinese lady I bought some stuff from ebay sent me an email asking me to come back to her ebay store and buy more! Yeppers ...... we are royally screwed in retail.

 

[sptrawler]

Actualy trainspotter, I think parcel delivery from China is the only non resource based growth industry we have. I have never seen so many messenger post, DHL and Fed Express vans on the road.
On the 25/05 I thought we were on the turning point of a major correction. Well I think it has now begun time will tell. The continuing fall of the Dow and the removal of QE2, will make it very hard to find confidence and a support level for the Australian market.
Also it is difficult to imagine where any uplifting news will come from for the U.S.
I guess it will be the recession we have to have when Labor are in.

 

[Glen48]

Who thinks the DOW will tank and will it cause a crash ?

 

[skyQuake]

Who thinks the DOW will tank and will it cause a crash ?

I don't think the DOW tanking itself will trigger a crash.
Too many bears around imo

 

[joea]

Over here in the shakey isles, the only thing holding us out from a technical recession is some of the export industries... timber, dairy etc.

The "mums and dads" economy is definitely in recession.

The only thing holding Australia out of a recession is WAYNE SWANN.
If you don't belive me, ask him.

Joea

 

[sptrawler]

I don't think the DOW tanking itself will trigger a crash.
Too many bears around imo

I'm with you, I think if the DOW takes a hit we will slide through the 4500 support then probably stop around 4200.
To go lower would take some really bad news from China.
Like you said there are too many bears around and U.S problems are already being factored in to prices.

 

[adobee]

Im expecting bounce tomorrow ..
if I am wrong there will be a big slide to 4200 IMO