Who thinks there will be a slump?

[Knobby22]

Retail is dying.
I have heard of a few tenants demanding and getting lower rents.

Its the internet!! Also Australian rents and margins being too high.

We will be in adjustment mode and there will be many winners and losers.

The gov'mint and Her Majesty's opposition don't have any answers.

 

[VSntchr]

Seems an odd situation..I dont have much knowledge or experience to be commenting here...but my take on the situation is that people who have small businesses (retail etc) are struggling hardcore...
People with debt are also struggling as they were silly enough not to consider rates abnormally low when they took out their funding a few years back...

However, it seems that the saving rate is high...meaning that there is a whole heap of people..with a fairly large amount of savings..and that number should be growing?...

A lot of people are still too scared to invest in the stockmarket since they got burned through the GFC...so where are they parking all this money!

 

[skc]

And meanwhile back in our own little backyard.

Out shopping with the bride this morning and talking to a fellow with a business in the Frankston central shopping centre. Stated:

His business is down 30% in the last two weeks, many of his nearby associates reporting similar, but then he confided, "if this shopping centre called for all the tenants to pay back rent half the shops would be shut."

If there is an interest rate rise he said, we have had it.

Why last 2 weeks? Sure the market has been falling, but the average bloke on the street doesn't know what the sharemarket is doing in the last 2 weeks.

Is there any other reason that might explain the slump? E.g. colder weather, rain, nearby roadworks, parking changes?

 

[skyQuake]

Why last 2 weeks? Sure the market has been falling, but the average bloke on the street doesn't know what the sharemarket is doing in the last 2 weeks.

Is there any other reason that might explain the slump? E.g. colder weather, rain, nearby roadworks, parking changes?

All the long only fund managers holding our market up were taken away in the rapture

 

[prawn_86]

I have about 200 SMEs as clients. Most are reporting that business at the moment is slow, which means average to slightly below average.

Very few are on the bread line at the moment, but conversely very few are having exceptional results, i can think of only 3 clients that are reporting better sales than this time last year. This is spread across pretty much every industry i deal in which ranges from food and bev through to construction.

 

[explod]

Why last 2 weeks? Sure the market has been falling, but the average bloke on the street doesn't know what the sharemarket is doing in the last 2 weeks.

Is there any other reason that might explain the slump? E.g. colder weather, rain, nearby roadworks, parking changes?

Dont' know, he did quote figures down over the last several months but as it was in conversation do not recall detail more than stated. He himself (a newsagent) is end career and well enough off but felt we are in for times that we both agreed we have not experienced in our lifetime.

Time will tell of course so take it as you wish.

 

[markhocky]

...

However, it seems that the saving rate is high...meaning that there is a whole heap of people..with a fairly large amount of savings..and that number should be growing?...

A high savings rate doesn't necessarily mean there is spare cash lying around. The additional savings could be going towards paying down debt (which is more likely I believe).

The other conspiring factors of increased 'real' inflation, and lower wage growth, probably also mean there is less spare cash being scooped away each month ready to pounce on a correction.

Just my thinking, anyways...

 

[tothemax6]

Retail is dying.
I have heard of a few tenants demanding and getting lower rents.
Its the internet!! Also Australian rents and margins being too high.
We will be in adjustment mode and there will be many winners and losers.
The gov'mint and Her Majesty's opposition don't have any answers.

That'd be nice, deflation in the real estate market.

 

[skc]

Dont' know, he did quote figures down over the last several months but as it was in conversation do not recall detail more than stated. He himself (a newsagent) is end career and well enough off but felt we are in for times that we both agreed we have not experienced in our lifetime.

Time will tell of course so take it as you wish.

I understand. Just that the 2 week timeframe seemed specific (and short) so I just tried to think of other factors. Clearly you didn't do an accountant's audit on his business .

All the long only fund managers holding our market up were taken away in the rapture

Lol. The rapture was only last Sat... so those fund managers went somewhere, but it wasn't heaven.

 

[Julia]

However, it seems that the saving rate is high...meaning that there is a whole heap of people..with a fairly large amount of savings..and that number should be growing?...

A lot of people are still too scared to invest in the stockmarket since they got burned through the GFC...so where are they parking all this money!

Presumably much it is being parked in online savings accounts, yield from which is lower than it was a couple of years ago. Ditto term deposits. About 18 months ago you could easily get 8% on a term deposit, now it's closer to 6%. Why would rates have so dropped if banks were not feeling pretty flush with local deposit funds?

I support the observation that retail is suffering badly. It might be better in the big cities, but in this town of around 55,000 the CBD is dead and retailers, when asked, concede they are doing very badly.

 

[explod]

I understand. Just that the 2 week timeframe seemed specific (and short) so I just tried to think of other factors. Clearly you didn't do an accountant's audit on his business .



Lol. The rapture was only last Sat... so those fund managers went somewhere, but it wasn't heaven.

First time I had ever met the man, he spoke about the economy first when giving me change for my purchase of the Financial Review hich must have made him feel I knew something he he he., you tuned in Waynel. So it was just an informal chat and thought I would mention it on here.

 

[qldfrog]

No so sure about things being better in the big cities;
Queen Mall in center of Brisbane: go to Broadway lane and see the number of closed/for rent signs; never been that bad even when GFC hit;
we are in a recession IMHO; I am lucky, I work in resources but Queensland (and I assume most of Australia) is suffering badly;

 

[So_Cynical]

There is alot of empty shops and bulk retail sites...well more than there was a year ago, maybe its just taken that long for the GFC to catch up with the retailers that were always at the more marginal end of the scale...prime retail is still ok...Westfield Parramatta was full (car park always a good indicator) the other Thursday nite.

 

[Glen48]

This year will be better than next year, buy USA today and what ever you read is what we can expect over the next 5 years.
What happens in USA happens here 5 years later.

 

[konkon]

When, for example, some local councils are taking away gas operated outdoor heaters from cafes etc and suggesting the proprietors utilise blankets for patrons instead, then you have a real problem! A vote of 8 to 10 in favour of getting cafes to issue blankets for patrons is a vote for these small business operators to go under. Local council stupidity aside, why isn't some skillful law firm out to sue these so called representative government agencies. I'm sure there is plenty of money in the till seeing as though they have chipped away at the middle class for quite some time now.

Just remember that councils work for us, or are meant to, and any decision to adversely affect the real backbone to Australia's economy (small business and not mining) should be met with tough counteractive measures to keep these agencies from creating extra work for themselves while small business goes under. Hold them accountable for their damaging decisions. This might get others to reexamine their position with this counter-productive carbon tax and any adverse effect it will (definitely) have on the economy.

At the end of the day councils should not interfere too much in private industry, and if any other government agency wants to side with this local 'mob' then how are you going to get all that funding you need and deserve if the middle class and small business goes under?

And the next time we all go off to vote, in state and federal elections, maybe we should realise this isn't a popularity contest like in Big Brother or Australian Idol. I bet this country would still run efficiently for a few months if we had no government at all but were still protected by law enforcement agencies etc.

 

[skc]

When, for example, some local councils are taking away gas operated outdoor heaters from cafes etc and suggesting the proprietors utilise blankets for patrons instead, then you have a real problem! A vote of 8 to 10 in favour of getting cafes to issue blankets for patrons is a vote for these small business operators to go under. Local council stupidity aside, why isn't some skillful law firm out to sue these so called representative government agencies. I'm sure there is plenty of money in the till seeing as though they have chipped away at the middle class for quite some time now.

Personally I think heating of outdoor areas of restaurants etc should be illegal.

Giving out blankets isn't the right substitute - just don't bloody sit outside if people think it's too cold!

 

[VSntchr]

When, for example, some local councils are taking away gas operated outdoor heaters from cafes etc and suggesting the proprietors utilise blankets for patrons instead, then you have a real problem! A vote of 8 to 10 in favour of getting cafes to issue blankets for patrons is a vote for these small business operators to go under. Local council stupidity aside, why isn't some skillful law firm out to sue these so called representative government agencies. I'm sure there is plenty of money in the till seeing as though they have chipped away at the middle class for quite some time now.

Just remember that councils work for us, or are meant to, and any decision to adversely affect the real backbone to Australia's economy (small business and not mining) should be met with tough counteractive measures to keep these agencies from creating extra work for themselves while small business goes under. Hold them accountable for their damaging decisions. This might get others to reexamine their position with this counter-productive carbon tax and any adverse effect it will (definitely) have on the economy.

At the end of the day councils should not interfere too much in private industry, and if any other government agency wants to side with this local 'mob' then how are you going to get all that funding you need and deserve if the middle class and small business goes under?

And the next time we all go off to vote, in state and federal elections, maybe we should realise this isn't a popularity contest like in Big Brother or Australian Idol. I bet this country would still run efficiently for a few months if we had no government at all but were still protected by law enforcement agencies etc.

Why take away the heaters? To reduce emissions or something? sounds redonkulous

 

[sptrawler]

Seems an odd situation..I dont have much knowledge or experience to be commenting here...but my take on the situation is that people who have small businesses (retail etc) are struggling hardcore...
People with debt are also struggling as they were silly enough not to consider rates abnormally low when they took out their funding a few years back...

However, it seems that the saving rate is high...meaning that there is a whole heap of people..with a fairly large amount of savings..and that number should be growing?...

A lot of people are still too scared to invest in the stockmarket since they got burned through the GFC...so where are they parking all this money!

The savings rate is high because a lot of older investors have cashed in also anyone with excess cash is paying down debt. The rest are swimming with just their nose above water and can't do anything but pray.
The funny thing is that the commentators are saying soveriegn debt issues are worrying investors.
What a joke everyone is waiting to see if China is willing to prop up raw material prices. I believe the next 6 months are going to be make or break for the Aussie market. I'm parked in cash and may miss out on a massive surge in prices, but I can live with that.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

At the end of the day councils should not interfere too much in private industry, and if any other government agency wants to side with this local 'mob' then how are you going to get all that funding you need and deserve if the middle class and small business goes under?

Hmmmm......are you saying - 'don't interfere but please use ratepayers money to pay for our outdoor heaters'?? Besides the point that it just doesn't seem correct to start with ie that the council pays for it? They should not subsidise a private business full stop.

The savings rate is high because a lot of older investors have cashed in also anyone with excess cash is paying down debt. The rest are swimming with just their nose above water and can't do anything but pray.
The funny thing is that the commentators are saying soveriegn debt issues are worrying investors.
What a joke everyone is waiting to see if China is willing to prop up raw material prices. I believe the next 6 months are going to be make or break for the Aussie market. I'm parked in cash and may miss out on a massive surge in prices, but I can live with that.

I'm not only cash, but short as well, have been for a while.....

 

[sptrawler]

Hi Uncle Festivus, I just can't believe the amount of people where I work , that have their money in high risk growth. The funny thing is they are near retirement age. I wonder if they are not being pressured to stay in high risk because the government has reduced what they can put in and lifted the age they can access the pension. Therefore they feel pressured to get high returns, this in turn can lead to high losses if the market has a downturn.
Which would support the old song "The working class can kiss my ------------I have the bosses job at last"
The labor government has lost any attachment it thought it might have with the working class.
I just hope all the lower income earners change their super over to cash and preserve what they have, at least untill this government is thrown out.