Where are all the bears now?

[qldfrog]

If you own the banks or Telstra, you're in a raging bull market. If you own resource stocks, you're getting slaughtered. Otherwise, you've seen a slight increase.

And comparing the current market to '07 is pure fantasy! Last I checked (was a couple weeks back) we were at a market P/E of ~15... Even though it's only one metric of many, it's a good indication that we're nowhere near that sort of market hype.

which is why I believe the sideway is probably the average story for the average punter...
Would be nice to have some figure if anyone has any?

banks, telstra, rio/bhp and a couple of bets mostly in resources is my definition of the average portfolio and this ends up in sideway
I know in my case I just average 0 win/gain overall after heavy brokerage costs.
In positive with dividends and franked $, also managed to pay my put options out of the small profit but nothing to boast of.
But i am maybe not the average, the people I know are loosing overall...

 

[white_goodman]

Not sure why the broken clock analogy keeps getting airplay

because you have been 100% wrong the past 4 years thinking the market is going to crash.. your position without any timeframe is never wrong.. bearish at t=infinity

 

[FlyingFox]

The charts don't lie...and never do.

Charts serve a purpose. They tell you what is happening in the market but very little about why. If all you do is trade and want to make money, then fair enough. Otherwise they are akin to the blind men and the elephant. None of them were wrong, but none of them were right either.

 

[FlyingFox]

Doesn't mean they won't try....

And on that ... this is a useful chart for all ...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Population-doubling.svg

 

[Trembling Hand]

I didn't say the end is nigh for the DAX did I? So in the absence of any reason, you don't know why the DAX did a woody after hours either?

Err it was all over the place,

RAN Squawk,

Chatter has circulated that the ECB have contacted European banks in order to gauge conditions for negative deposit rates

 

[Uncle Festivus]

because you have been 100% wrong the past 4 years thinking the market is going to crash.. your position without any timeframe is never wrong.. bearish at t=infinity

I've always siad that it's been unsustainable (fueled by QE) and that the timing is the only thing unknown. 4 years calling for a crash?? I stuck my neck out about 5 months ago and said it looked toppy, which I got wrong. Makes no difference to me either way - just keep trading long and short then till it doesn't?

The market continues to go the opposite direction to the fundamentals so it's still the timing issue. And we can look forward to the 5th second half recovery that won't materialise?

For eg CAT - well they will be taking the shades off coz their futures not so bright is it, and that was before the USD took off. Bernankes problem is now whether to increase QE to match, and better, Japan to save US manufacturing jobs.

Caterpillar Inc (CAT.N) posted disappointing quarterly results and cut its 2013 profit forecast on Monday to reflect a drop in demand for heavy equipment from its mining customers.

But the world's largest maker of construction and mining equipment said it believed the pullback in spending by miners was temporary, and its shares rose on news it was reviving a buyback program and would purchase $1 billion in stock this year.

"the pullback in spending by miners was temporary"? Not according to BHP?

May 15, 2013 - BHP Billiton's new chief executive Andrew Mackenzie has outlined plans to slash capital spending by almost a fifth. In his first major address as head of the world's biggest resources company, Mr Mackenzie said capital and exploration expenditure would be cut to $US18 billion ($A18.28 billion) in 2013/14, from a peak of $US22 billion during this financial year.

"The rate of spend is expected to decline substantially thereafter," he told a mining conference in Barcelona on Tuesday night (AEST).

So that's how they juice up the P/E ratio to justify current valuations - through reducing the free float of equities.
Then get the accountants to work on watered down accounting standards eg mark to market.

All looks rosy through the smoke & mirrors..........

 

[Porper]

I've always siad that it's been unsustainable (fueled by QE) and that the timing is the only thing unknown. 4 years calling for a crash?? I stuck my neck out about 5 months ago and said it looked toppy, which I got wrong

Timing is always the issue...especially for the bears that have been calling for a crash over the past 3-4 years. When the market does crash you'll all be blowing your own trumpets.

The market continues to go the opposite direction to the fundamentals so it's still the timing issue.

Back to the timing issue Uncle...that seems to be your only defense!! Markets always go in the opposite direction to the fundamentals. Simply because there are always perceived problems in the economy. Look at 87. U.S trade deficit was apparantly out of control and totally unsustainable..would bring the world financial system down. Didn't happen...won't this time either.

All looks rosy through the smoke & mirrors..........

It's always smoke and mirrors and that wont change. Trick is to play along and not fight it. I don't comment on the GFC for one good reason...I am no expert and an opinion is just that...a best guess.

If your car breaks down would you trust your next door neighbours 16yr old apprentice to fix it or take it to an authorised technician qualified to do the work? It's exactly the same situation only we are talking about running global economies. Government advisors (and Helicopter Ben for that matter) get their jobs for very good reasons. They are qualified and have an understanding of the system!! Armchair critics can bang on about QE etc until the cows come home...maybe it was the only solution at the time that would avoid taking us into the abyss. The world isn't going to end Uncle...much to your apparant annoyance.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Government advisors (and Helicopter Ben for that matter) get their jobs for very good reasons. They are qualified and have an understanding of the system!!

(March 28, 2007) "At this juncture, however, the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained. In particular, mortgages to prime borrowers and fixed-rate mortgages to all classes of borrowers continue to perform well, with low rates of delinquency." B Bernanke

I rest my case as to the incompetence of the so called 'expert' - he's just a GS lapdog doing the 'yes' job assigned, perhaps even enjoying his 15 mins of fame. Just more of Greenspans ethically dubious solutions to a simple problem - simply let the system purge naturally every now and then and we wouldn't be in this predicament?

Armchair critics can bang on about QE etc until the cows come home...maybe it was the only solution at the time that would avoid taking us into the abyss. The world isn't going to end Uncle...much to your apparant annoyance.

So it was going into the abyss 5 years ago but now that they print money it won't? So that is the perpetual solution?

Again you are assuming - I never said the world is going to end did I? Although I'd be a tad annoyed if it did

Even optimists should practice pessimistic planning - you're going to need it.

 

[white_goodman]

(March 28, 2007) "At this juncture, however, the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained. In particular, mortgages to prime borrowers and fixed-rate mortgages to all classes of borrowers continue to perform well, with low rates of delinquency." B Bernanke

what is wrong with this statement?

go visit the timeline

 

[McLovin]

(March 28, 2007) "At this juncture, however, the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained. In particular, mortgages to prime borrowers and fixed-rate mortgages to all classes of borrowers continue to perform well, with low rates of delinquency." B Bernanke

There's nothing wrong with this statement.

I think you're so married to your opinion that it's impossible for you to even consider an alternative.

 

[Intrinsic Value]

Record high sovereign debt and record low interest rates.

What happens if interest rates rise?

Sovereign debt default that is what.

Then the so called rosy picture can change very rapidly.

 

[Vixs]

There's nothing wrong with this statement.

I think you're so married to your opinion that it's impossible for you to even consider an alternative.

What do you mean there's nothing wrong with that statement? That was a few months prior to the turd hitting the fan at Mach 10 and splattering all over the world!

That's a 'we're all fine' at a time when the world was about to learn that the bankers had been spending their time polishing turds for the last few years.

 

[white_goodman]

What do you mean there's nothing wrong with that statement? That was a few months prior to the turd hitting the fan at Mach 10 and splattering all over the world!

That's a 'we're all fine' at a time when the world was about to learn that the bankers had been spending their time polishing turds for the last few years.

a few months prior and??? what else...

theres nothing wrong with his statement, you're a simpleton or ignorant if you dont understand why

 

[McLovin]

What do you mean there's nothing wrong with that statement? That was a few months prior to the turd hitting the fan at Mach 10 and splattering all over the world!

It's a statement that infers it's qualified by probabilities ie "at this juncture", "seems likely to be contained". It's by no means a definitive yes/no. So the statement in itself is not incorrect, even the analysis that led to the statement may be correct, all that happened was the lower probability event occurred.

 

[skc]

It's a statement that infers it's qualified by probabilities ie "at this juncture", "seems likely to be contained". It's by no means a definitive yes/no. So the statement in itself is not incorrect, even the analysis that led to the statement may be correct, all that happened was the lower probability event occurred.

Or they got the probability wrong.

I take that the statement has as much a political slant as an economist's honest opinion. The statement needed to be said that way... if it says sub-prime is doomed, it will trigger sub-prime's doom even if it wasn't.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

what is wrong with this statement?

go visit the timeline

Red arrows = March 28, 2007

The housing crash had been going for 2 years. They would have been fully aware of economic conditions with the data at their disposal.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

There's nothing wrong with this statement.

I think you're so married to your opinion that it's impossible for you to even consider an alternative.

What's the alternative to facts?

a few months prior and??? what else...

theres nothing wrong with his statement, you're a simpleton or ignorant if you dont understand why

Was that neccessary?

 

[chops_a_must]

I always get the feeling Uncle loves the bullets.

I think if you really wanted to have a crack, I'd just praise him.

 

[McLovin]

Or they got the probability wrong.

Of course, but there's no way of knowing that based on the snippet provided by UF.

I take that the statement has as much a political slant as an economist's honest opinion. The statement needed to be said that way... if it says sub-prime is doomed, it will trigger sub-prime's doom even if it wasn't.

Definitely.

 

[Knobby22]

I'm getting bearish about the Australian economy.
When the $ drops petrol will go up, destroying confidence. Everyone counting on the real estate market to reignite. Can't see it happening. Sure the lower $A will help exports, but manufacturing has to rebuild, it will take many years...if ever.

I predict a short term squeeze.

There will probably be a good opportunity to get into some mining shares at some stage though.