Where are all the bears now?

[mr. jeff]

Well yes you're probably right there, it's the timing of the rebound that will be interesting.

I definitely agree that the reaction is quite ridiculous.
Nothing wrong with profiting from it though - might as well trade any good opportunity.
There will have to be a clarification type statement issued if the market continues like this - similar to last time.
The rebound should offer a great long. Just got to identify it.

I don't think the base level has been reached yet though.

 

[FxTrader]

Investors looking at the correlation between QEx "asset" purchases and equity prices are quite rightly concerned about any withdraw of QE. For example, one wonders when looking at these charts what would happen to equity prices when the balance sheet line begins to move downward...

 

[CanOz]

Last night saw some sector rotation into defensive stocks, according to the Bloomy. The US markets closed in the green.

Also, some things going on with yields in emerging markets...got to find out more about that...

CanOz

 

[Uncle Festivus]

So Mr Market is saying that he would prefer a recession than for QE to be tapered???

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) ”” U.S. stocks jumped Wednesday, pulling benchmark indexes into positive terrain for the week, as a revision in economic growth calmed concern about U.S. monetary policy.

Gross domestic product expanded 1.8% from January through March, down from an earlier estimate of 2.4%, the Commerce Department reported.

Long time time market gurus like Stanley Druckenmiller can no longer use established methodology to 'price' anything so they have stopped trading because the market is totally fixated on QE and nothing else as an equity valuer.

Bernanke was asked during his conference last week about rising interest rates, his response - "Well, we were a little puzzled by that. It was bigger than can be explained I think by changes in the ultimate stock of asset purchases within reasonable ranges. So I think we have to conclude that there are other factors at work as well....."

He just admitted he & they haven't got a clue about what's happening - they are simply using a 'suck it & see' approach to fix the generational and structural problems facing both the US and generally the world that politicians will not address.

Just means the end qtr is getting even closer now. This will be spectacular......

 

[Porper]

So Mr Market is saying that he would prefer a recession than for QE to be tapered???


Just means the end qtr is getting even closer now. This will be spectacular......

Yes well it was supposed to be spectacular back in 2007 Uncle...look we we are now. All the Bears and doom and gloom merchants have been wrong.

You can't just keep banging the "end is nigh" drum forever without admitting you got it wrong. We are due a healthy correction due to the MASSIVE rally but nothing more i.m.o.

You could be waiting for armageddon for the rest of your natural life...it ain't going to happen Uncle.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Yes well it was supposed to be spectacular back in 2007 Uncle...look we we are now. All the Bears and doom and gloom merchants have been wrong.

You can't just keep banging the "end is nigh" drum forever without admitting you got it wrong. We are due a healthy correction due to the MASSIVE rally but nothing more i.m.o.

You could be waiting for armageddon for the rest of your natural life...it ain't going to happen Uncle.

No, not wrong - the GFC is still playing to it's ultimate conclusion.

The GFC wasn't spectacular enough for you? In their own words, the global financial system was close to imploding?

A mere recession will be all it takes to 'make it happen', so don't be too confident in the ability of central banker to save the world. You do know that the recovery is premised on there being no recession until at least 2020, at least according to the governments own projections? And a GDP above at least 3% pa until 2020

Unemployment is still not back to 2000 levels yet, let alone made enough jobs for the millions who have joined the workforce since then. And when talking about U let's not get carried away with the 'official' U of 7.6% as we all know, at least those who care to see how these things are derived, that the true level is still greater than 12% if you use the same participation rate as before the recession.

 

[Knobby22]

One swallow doesn't make a summer.
I expect the correction to continue after a brief upturn.

These is a light at the end of the tunnel. Better hope it's not a train.

 

[howmanyru]

I am still bearish on the economy. While all that money printing has gone somewhere, it hasn't gone directly into my pocket. I don't have any more money to spend because banks, auto companies and the stock market got bailed out. Your average Joe punter like myself is in a worsening position, despite the massive increase in global liquidity. There is more competition for jobs, soaring insurance and utility bills, etc, etc. I imagine that is why inflation is mysteriously low despite flooding the system with cash - it just doesn't equate to more money in average peoples pockets each week.

 

[CanOz]

Wow, i bet there's a few bears that got shaken out lately...me included. Got stopped out of all my shorts and stopped into a couple of longs again...

CanOz

 

[Porper]

Wow, i bet there's a few bears that got shaken out lately...me included. Got stopped out of all my shorts and stopped into a couple of longs again...

CanOz

A bit of short covering going on without doubt but how long can this rally last? Not very long is my bet.

As soon as everybody and their dog starts to buy we'll be heading south again...could be wrong.

 

[mr. jeff]

Wow, i bet there's a few bears that got shaken out lately...me included. Got stopped out of all my shorts and stopped into a couple of longs again...

CanOz

Yep I got cut out.

 

[CanOz]

A bit of short covering going on without doubt but how long can this rally last? Not very long is my bet.

As soon as everybody and their dog starts to buy we'll be heading south again...could be wrong.

Hi Porper, great to see ya here again!

Yeah i agree totally, in fact the SPX is setting up for a classic LBR grail pattern, so we'll see if we pause at the EMA and roll over again...usually there should be some trade-able patterns appear in US Stocks at the same time...

CanOz

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Might be hearing a bit more about these - interest rate swaps - a $300Trillion market?

..........................

If holding companies are now on the wrong side of that trade, that would mean a rash of collateral calls. The 10-year treasury swap rate has seen, by far, the most significant upward movement since the taper talk began. It was such a dramatic move that it would seem that some traders are being forced out of their positions and into more netting at the margins; that is to obtain an opposite trade to extract oneself from the original position.
.....

But the derivative markets are far different. Rising interest rates can and likely already have reduced liquidity through the same process that destroyed bank liquidity in 2007 - collateral calls. With so much of this both OTC and inside the opaque world of bank holding companies, we will have absolutely no idea how much impact interest rates can have, and neither will regulators directly.

..........................

http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2013/06/14/the_new_crowded_derivatives_trade_100401.html

 

[Uncle Festivus]

That's odd! Bernanke spoke & the markets didn't move 200 pts? Central Banker Rhetoric Fatique perhaps.

They'll need to have a few more jawboning tricks to keep the bull going in light of such excellent data from GDP revisions, retail sales, housing starts & building permits - the former beacons of the new & improved recovery?

Is it a duck or a swan?

 

[Trembling Hand]

Is it a duck or a swan?

View attachment 53408

Tyrannosaurus Rex

 

[mr. jeff]

That's odd! Bernanke spoke & the markets didn't move 200 pts? Central Banker Rhetoric Fatique perhaps.

They'll need to have a few more jawboning tricks to keep the bull going in light of such excellent data from GDP revisions, retail sales, housing starts & building permits - the former beacons of the new & improved recovery?

Is it a duck or a swan?

Ha very funny! Rhetoric Fatigue, good term. Rhetoric is a fancy word for.....bankers talking?
I agree, where will the next great news come from to keep the move going?

Maybe God/The Bernank could next say "we will never remove stimulus, actually we will increase it at the rate of inflation we desire - for EVER"

Possibility of a double top perhaps... watching with interest as this limbo is strange - good news still is bad, but also good really, and bad news is actually quite bad but good due to stimulus.

Still trying to work this one out. It's been 5 years and I'm still having trouble with it!

 

[Aussiejeff]

Maybe God/The Bernank could next say "we will never remove stimulus, actually we will increase it at the rate of inflation we desire - for EVER"

I'm surprised he/they haven't already set something along those lines in stone already.

Let's face it, THE GREATEST CON THE WORLD HAS EVER SEEN (aka take trillions from the public pockets/purse and give it all to the banksters and pollies to play with) has been a rip-roarin', raging success on their behalf.

The sheeple have been bluffed to acquiescent death. Planet Debt is now the Bankster's oyster, to do with what they may.

Who owns (ie bankrolls) the rating agencies? Hmmmm....
Who owns (ie bankrolls) the stock exchanges? Hmmmm...
Who owns (ie bankrolls) the governments? Hmmmm...

Correct. Here, have a cookie....nom, nom..

Enjoy their partay...

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Tyrannosaurus Rex

Ha Ha Hmmm? Didn't they end up extinct

Master Bernanke and his share market T Rex.......

[video=youtube_share;93B072j-E3I]http://youtu.be/93B072j-E3I[/video]

"I have a big head & little arms -I'm just not sure how well this plan was thought through - Master?"

 

[Aussiejeff]

Ha Ha Hmmm? Didn't they end up extinct

Master Bernanke and his share market T Rex.......

[video=youtube_share;93B072j-E3I]http://youtu.be/93B072j-E3I[/video]

"I have a big head & little arms -I'm just not sure how well this plan was thought through - Master?"

Looks like Godzilla has been stompin' this hole...Detroit Becomes Biggest U.S. City to File for Bankruptcyhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...-biggest-u-s-city-to-file-for-bankruptcy.html

But wait....markets still soar! What planet am I on?

 

[Trembling Hand]

But wait....markets still soar! What planet am I on?

Old news. Small stuffed city. Next.....