WHC - Whitehaven Coal

[michael_selway]

Five months ago I posted this and now feel a bit peeved. The price continues on upward with stocks like MCC. The Aussie$ price for thermal coal out of newcastle is now around AU$95 a tonne. May well be something in the price for a takeover bid and increases the speculative nature of this sector. A lot to go for I suppose, but don't forget its just a dig the coal out and sell it company, little else.

Yes its getting pricey now one would think

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2009 2010 2011 2012
EPS 19.1 13.4 19.0 30.5
DPS 8.5 10.9 9.2 15.1

thx

MS

 

[noirua]

Yes its getting pricey now one would think

MS

The whole sector looks pricey, from minnow to MCC. However, Gloucester Coal are over $8 now with the present bid, and I thought $6.50 was tops for them.
In the UK they're chasing mining stocks with Vedanta up 400%+.

China is the lead market with forecasts of 9% growth and the USA looking better. As I'm now about 90% in cash after the Felix Resources pay out; am I doing the right thing with my masterly innaction m_s???????????

 

[moses]

Yeah well but the price just keep on climbing climbing. Masterly inaction seems not to have been the right move.

 

[Logique]

Been watching this one for a long time. Coal prices keep going up.
Stock holders would not be happy with the false rumour today that an equity raising was planned. Whitehaven management have come out with a comprehensive denial of this, or even the need for it (see ASX anns). I was impressed with management's prompt action, and their disclosure. On a day with some green ink around, WHC dipped into the red, so it looked to me an opportunity at the lower end of a range.

 

[skc]

Very quiet... what's going on with the share price?

Down 6% today, retraced a bit after a 'nothing' announcement, now back down 6%.

Where are these media reports that the company is talking about?

 

[wasabi]

Potential business deal / takeover:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...o-finding-suitor/story-fn4xq4cj-1226038594305

 

[wasabi]

Very quiet... what's going on with the share price?

Down 6% today, retraced a bit after a 'nothing' announcement, now back down 6%.

Where are these media reports that the company is talking about?

The market need a clear explanation? or speculate the takeover not happenning?:dunno:

 

[skyQuake]

The market need a clear explanation? or speculate the takeover not happenning?:dunno:

Bloomberg 12:19pm *Yanzhou coal says it is not in talks to buy Whitehaven, quoting DealReporter (whatever that is)

 

[skc]

Bloomberg 12:19pm *Yanzhou coal says it is not in talks to buy Whitehaven, quoting DealReporter (whatever that is)

So that's 1 no bid from tons of other bidders??

Man I really need a bloomberg terminal and desktop Iress...

SkyQ, do you think a prop shop will take me doing pairs trading equities?

 

[skyQuake]

So that's 1 no bid from tons of other bidders??

Man I really need a bloomberg terminal and desktop Iress...

SkyQ, do you think a prop shop will take me doing pairs trading equities?

As long as u're profitable, and can show that you can still be profitable doing size.
ie if you're trying to make 0.5c buying pen at 11.5 and selling 12 they'll show u the door

 

[awg]

When Felix sold I moved my "takeover play" proceeds to WHC.

I had narrowed it down to a choice of WHC or Riversdale

 

[skc]

As long as u're profitable, and can show that you can still be profitable doing size.
ie if you're trying to make 0.5c buying pen at 11.5 and selling 12 they'll show u the door

Lol... and security will rough me up on the way out no doubt.

I think I can easily trade 20x bigger on most of my positions if I had the money and the risk appetite. On current trajectory it will take me ~5 years to get there...

Anyhow - back to WHC. Surely the takeover is still on...

 

[Bibimbap]

Heard on Your Money Your call that the Tinkler takeover speculation is looking precarious following a failure of a US coal company.

Got a small parcel at $4.11 on Monday... only to watch the share price smashed the past 4days

 

[notting]

I was waiting for it to to stop tanking so aggressively.
Can't believe Tinkler moved so quickly.
Must be paranoid about another offer?
Strange.
Or concerned his stake in WHC was being cheapened too much.
A little crazy.
Maybe he is hoping another offer will come in over the top of his so he can cash out?
Makes more sense, but a little optimistic in this environment.
Perhaps he has friends in China.

 

[So_Cynical]

I brought some WHC shares today for my superfund at $3.61 including brokerage...WHC is a big mature business that appears to me to be a little undervalued at the moment, close to 500 million in the bank, a low debt burden and plans to double there coal output this financial year.

And in the unlikely event that Nathan Tinkler can actually come up with the money, ill be more than happy to sell him my shares for $5.20

http://www.smh.com.au/business/has-nathan-tinklers-luck-run-out-20120816-24bku.html

 

[Family_Guy]

I'm with you, So_Cynical.

I was about to press the buy button in my super account, thought i'd come past here and have a look at what others are saying first......not that that matters, but i just cant seem to get my head around the large drop in price in recent times, i understand the special div they gave out in April, just can't see why another buck fitty has come off.

 

[So_Cynical]

but i just cant seem to get my head around the large drop in price in recent times, i understand the special div they gave out in April, just can't see why another buck fitty has come off.

Yep im with ya... i was involved with a stock awhile ago that paid a big in specie distribution and did a share consolidation and afterwards the market sort of didn't know how to value the stock..so in this market it was somehow seen as a negative and the stock got very over sold based on nothing really.

I think a bit of the same is happening here, the 50 cent divi has thrown out the valuation, couple that with the falling coal price and the switching from resources and energy to banks and yield and you are left with some genuine value in the miners and mining services sectors.

 

[willstor]

Yep im with ya... i was involved with a stock awhile ago that paid a big in specie distribution and did a share consolidation and afterwards the market sort of didn't know how to value the stock..so in this market it was somehow seen as a negative and the stock got very over sold based on nothing really.

I think a bit of the same is happening here, the 50 cent divi has thrown out the valuation, couple that with the falling coal price and the switching from resources and energy to banks and yield and you are left with some genuine value in the miners and mining services sectors.

got in at 2.89 (not the bottom but hopefully close!) target 3.50.

am i missing something re WHC????????

 

[skc]

got in at 2.89 (not the bottom but hopefully close!) target 3.50.

am i missing something re WHC????????

Rumour of major shareholder Tinkler looking for an exit = potential volume overhang on the stock.

 

[notting]

Looking for a double bottom yesterday.
Todays action a little dicey as it finished toward it's lows of the day and has not managed to break back up over 2.90 which could quickly become new resistance.
Volume was very light however so possible double bottom still in play.
Next few days will be interesting.