Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

WHC - Whitehaven Coal

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NIce to see Doug, but boy has he aged. I have a theory based on observation that we don't age in a smooth line trajectory but rather travel along a plateau then suddenly drop to a lower plateau and so on in a series of stages of ageing.
Of most interest to me is his expressed interest in coal at 32.49

Held
Holding

 
finicky said:
NIce to see Doug, but boy has he aged. I have a theory based on observation that we don't age in a smooth line trajectory but rather travel along a plateau then suddenly drop to a lower plateau and so on in a series of stages of ageing.
Of most interest to me is his expressed interest in coal at 32.49

Held
Holding

Click to expand...

Cortisol, far more destructive to the human organism than coal emissions.

Burn coal, stay warm, have consistent electricity supply, make steel and s*** like that, be happy.... and stay young.

(I may be speaking through my book ;) )
 
A solid 1/4ly from WHC. A few snippets -

- A solid quarter of production and sales – all mines delivering as planned or better
- Unit costs are tracking at bottom end of guidance.
-Cost out initiatives and productivity improvements continued in Q1 FY25

Reads well and seem to be bedding down the ex BHP assets.

India is expected to be the future for sea-borne met coal demand.
 
^^^

Just to restate that summary from Market Matters
  • Whitehaven Coal (WHC) +4.98 rallied on quarterly production numbers that showed improvement, particularly at Narrabri while their new QLD operations are performing as expected. Costs are tracking at the lower end of guidance and the $US1.08bn from the 30% sell-down of Blackwater should land their bank account in Q3.
 
Market Matters afternoon report.
From Bloomberg
Whitehaven the S&P/ASX 200 winner today

Also:
Whitehaven Coal (WHC) +3.71% rallied as Citi raised its price target to $8.00 from $7.60 after a good quarterly last week, while Goldmans upgraded to Buy & $7.90 PT – we flagged WHC as a trade this morning.
And:
  • Whitehaven Raised to Positive at Evans & Partners Pty Ltd

Held
Holding

Screenshot_20241028_185712_Chrome.jpg
 
finicky said:
Market Matters afternoon report.
From Bloomberg
Whitehaven the S&P/ASX 200 winner today

Also:
Whitehaven Coal (WHC) +3.71% rallied as Citi raised its price target to $8.00 from $7.60 after a good quarterly last week, while Goldmans upgraded to Buy & $7.90 PT – we flagged WHC as a trade this morning.
And:
  • Whitehaven Raised to Positive at Evans & Partners Pty Ltd

Held
Holding

View attachment 186754
Click to expand...
I hold but am not worried: citi raising proce target..should i sell quick?
 
Market Matters morning report: bullish NHC, Peabody Energy Group (BTU US), WHC medium term, neutral YAL
WHC and NHC Held
Holding

Are coal stocks the best way to play AI’s initial huge energy demand?​

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is being embraced as the future of mankind. Still, little is mentioned about the vast energy consumption required to drive this new phenomenon as we strive to have a cleaner planet—it’s arguably a contradiction. The “big tech” companies have recently focused on nuclear power to satisfy their massive increasing demand for energy, which will grow exponentially over the coming years; this has triggered a round of frantic deal-making as companies battle for uninterrupted supplies. Nuclear power has emerged as a favoured option.
  • Bill Gates of Microsoft fame, for example, is championing nuclear energy as a solution to reaching the world’s net zero climate targets and a way to meet Silicon Valley’s prodigious electricity needs as companies develop ever more complex AI tools.
We agree with Gates that nuclear is one, if not the best answer to this looming issue, but there’s likely to be an energy hole that requires plugging in the meantime, and coal could serve the function, albeit not in an environmentally friendly manner – a factor people are discounting in the pursuit of AI in the first place. We cannot always have our cake and eat it. Since COVID oil and uranium stocks have surged higher with coal, the standout laggard, we believe this relative underperformance will be addressed.
Just like the world has reined in its adoption of EVs, we believe that if the lights start fading, all of coal’s sins will be forgotten in a heartbeat; yesterday saw Porsche become the latest car manufacturer to back off its transition to full electric. We believe it’s a matter of when, not if, that coal stocks enjoy a resurgence.
MM is bullish on coal stocks

For coal stocks to improve, the commodity needs to recover from its sharp decline over the last few years—not as bad as lithium, but another example of commodities being cyclical markets. If /when China rekindles economic growth in its subdued economy, the coal price should, in theory, come back to life as demand lifts.

  • We can see thermal coal trading back to its ~$US200 average of the last few years, a move that would be very bullish for coal stocks.
MM is bullish on coal prices medium-term

Whitehaven Coal (WHC) $6.92​

WHC transitioned its business after buying Daunia and Blackwater last year for $3.2bn, transforming it from a NSW thermal coal producer into a company that will generate most of its revenue by selling Queensland coking/met coal to steel makers. However, the purchase ended WHC’s tremendous “cash cow” or dividend stream of recent years, at least for now i.e. WHC will pay a total 20c fully franked final dividend in 2024, compared to 74c in 2023.
  • We are very bullish on WHC over the years ahead, but it will take time and a higher coal price before the dividends flow again.
  • Markets are looking for WHC to yield around 3% over the next few years, but the coal price is the huge variable here, with WHC ready to benefit from any improvement in demand.
We are initially targeting a test of $8.50-9 by WHC, a very bullish call—
MM is long and bullish WHC medium-term
 
i hold both WHC and NHC ( both are 100% profits running )

i still glance at the other smaller ( than BHP and S32 ) coal producers they are often just one 'ecological protest ' away from compelling value

HOWEVER i do not expect to live another 20 years , so younger investors might be less attracted to coal investments
 

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