WDS - Woodside Energy Group

[Skate]

To put WDS into perspective
Of the top 20 listed ASX companies and investing $5k in each on the 1st July 2023 - WDS has returned dismal results of -19.3%, followed closely by 3 others.

Skate.

 

[divs4ever]

i was hoping the BHP acquisition would bring some better management/staff

so far it looks like i got that wrong
in hindsight i probably should have breathed a sigh of relief when the STO take-over failed

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

@Garpal Gumnut, WDS has proven to be quite challenging since the beginning of my investment exercise. At the end of trading day, my position in WDS dipped to -10%. These figures represent real funds and genuine investment outcomes.

View attachment 177407

Skate.

My loss is worse for WDS, and it was a large holding, so I decided to bail particularly after the negative posts from my fellow members this afternoon. My decision was made but I was unsure of timing. I'll take my capital loss now which luckily I need this year before the rest of retail sell in June.

What a bowl of smelly soup is WDS, it is so easy to go down the gurgler by a thousand cuts. Its Chairman little Dickie Goyder seems to be involved in some negative results with other companies he is involved in. I'll be watching WES a bit more closely fwiiw.

Nice results btw with those large cap companies. Compunded over a lifetime and it would be the cream.

gg

 

[qldfrog]

really need to get out of that one indeed, let them play with green oxygen with someone else money

I just checked, I actually fully exited @27.1, 20 days ago at what was nearly a 2y low..what a great timing..but no regret

 

[Gretsch]

I threw it in today, sold 3/4 of my stake and swapped for TLS as I figure I could be waiting for some time for WDS to recover but see TLS as a fast track to get back some of my losses.

 

[finicky]

I haven't considered selling but I can see why those with a trading stance are getting antsy. It's almost getting a contrarian flavour. A better brain than mine has it as a buy on the 'Not Zero' (sic) theme for carbon emissions. That's Greg Canavan of fat tail investment advisory.

I'm down on the shares I added over the last 6 months but hold on the view that fossil fuels will come back increasingly into favour and WDS will pay a dividend while holders wait. P/E of 12, P/B = 1

My possible chart targets, fwiw, roughly conform to @DrBourse's: an apparent double top in effect and should go down to $26 and possibly $22 the way I'm looking at it. Then again some current encouragement on the momentum indicator (positive divergence) but nothing in the recent candles or pennant shape to encourage.

Held and
Holding - possible Buy if lower

WEEKLY

 

[Gretsch]

$22 would be a great entry point. I’m optimistic but not confident.
I’ve lost too much sitting on losers.

 

[divs4ever]

i haven't bought any as WDS ( i held some WPL and BHP added some WDS after the demerger ) but sold some in April 2023 @ $34.25

so i guess i can't moan too loudly

( but not full of enthusiasm , either )

 

[DrBourse]

Hi @finicky ...

Yep agree with you on the MOM Ind Divergance, and as you say there is not much else that people can see...

However, Thought I might join in with some more Comments on WDS....
Bad TA Signals

Sellers have been in control of WDS since Mid October 2023, so the LT Trend is obviously Down…
Now The ST Trend is Down again, that started on 13/5/24 where there has recently been 7 Red Candles and only 2 Green Candles, so the Sellers (or Shorter’s) are in control again….

There are 6 Resistance Lines Directly above the current WDS SP, and only 4 Support Lines Directly Below the WDS SP, those Lines are generated by various TA Tools such as Benchmark Candle Formations (pages197-199), Linear Regression Indicator (pages139-142), and the basic Sup & Res Lines (page 35)

Looking back at the recent candle patterns, we see that nearly every time WDS has a Green Candle of abt 2% or $0.50c High to Low, the SP seems to Drop the next day… In a downtrend like WDS has now, that sequence reeks of manipulation by Shorter’s in particular…

WDS also has a lot of “Containment Candle Formations” (page 30), namely on 3/4/24, 25/3/24, 7/2/24 just to name a few…
WDS also has quite a few Double Tops (pages20, 82, 96, 97 & 109), Tweezer Tops (pages18&19).

ST Ind’s have not been very kind to the WDS SP since late Oct 2023, with a lot more Bad Signals than Good ones….
Current ST, MT & LT Ind’s are all Bad News atm…. (see the Chart Below)….



On the other hand, there are “No Good”, ST, MT or LT, TA or FA Signs that I can see…

The WDS IV as at 2/3/24 was $39.97, so at $27.75, it is way Oversold – maybe the candle for 24/5/24 will create a Double Bottom, and that in turn could signal a Bounce off the $26.41 Sup Line (or close to it)….

I don’t usually post my Analysis in this much detail as this type of analysis is reserved for my regular clients – but there seems to be a lot of interest in WDS atm…

As you all know I’m here to help save the Beginners from loosing their hard earned, and to answer any Q’s anyone may have….
I’m not here to help punters “Make Money from the ASX Sandpit”, so yes my posts revolve around highlighting problem stocks…

Anyhow this saga filled in a bit of time for me – hope everyone can see how I look at TA & FA…

This looks at the ST View....

This looks at the MT View....

This looks at the LT View....

And the 2/3/24 FA follows.....

An this is the WDS History.....

It's going 2B an interesting ride on WDS over the next few mths - When will the Shorts get tired of playing with Woodside ?....

Cheers...
DrB

PS: - The (page Nrs) that I refer to are from my DrB Manuals - Free copies to anyone that asks....

 

[finicky]

I’m optimistic but not confident.

@Gretsch I'm more complacent than confident. I have my fossil fuel collection spread over WDS, WHC and BPT. Not a major p/f positioning which is why I'd consider more at a lower price.

I don't see how anyone can be super confident near or medium term because labor governments are punitive (tax) and conflicted by their green association. Then there is the risk of big capital projects in development.

After reading G Canavan's essay 'Not Zero', I became convinced that the green ideological government will have to cave to exigencies: electricity, jobs, taxes and trade account. There's already signs of Labor going wobbly as no one in this government has true convictions, it's all expediency imo.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

I became convinced that the green ideological government will have to cave to exigencies: electricity, jobs, taxes and trade account....

plus commitments to customers, being other nation states.

 

[Gunnerguy]

Not too keen on WDS short term but maybe an opportunity for a contrarian play.
The SP looks very busy between $27 and $23.

Possible Bull Put credit spreads .....

XDate	STO Put	BTO Put	PM	C's	TPM	ML	DTE	ARR	Delta
19-Sep	$22.0	$18.0	$0.107	20	$214	-$8,000.00	118	8.3%	0.074
18-Aug	$24.0	$23.0	$0.053	40	$212	-$4,000.00	86	22.4%	0.083
18-Jul	$24.0	$22.5	$0.049	40	$196	-$6,000.00	55	21.5%	0.051

Risky yes, but returns better than Bank Interest.
Long term I wouldn't mind owning WDS AT $24, $23, $22......

Gunnerguy

 

[UMike]

While I like being a contrarian and investing against the trend the below has to change before WDS becomes top up able.

 

[Ferret]

I saw that WDS announced first oil from the Sangomar development in Senegal on 11 June. Early days, but they say performance so far is as predicted.

The milestone didn't do a great deal for the WDS share price. Still waiting for a proper upswing there.
@debtfree

 

[sptrawler]

I think the nuclear debate will fire up the anti gas activists, hopefully we will see $20, then I'm in.

 

[divs4ever]

I think the nuclear debate will fire up the anti gas activists, hopefully we will see $20, then I'm in.

i hold WDS

despite my lack of enthusiasm for WDS i am likely to strongly consider adding to the holding a little north of $20

but remember i normally 'nibble ' not 'back up the truck ' so maybe some say $22 , some @ $20 , some @ $18 ... as an example

however nuclear v gas may completely derail the climate agenda and we can all go back to rational investing ( how is that for a pipe-dream )

 

[DannyB0000]

I bought WDS as well through member direct, aus super. Was ideally looking for undervalued names instead of stocks that were already expensive. Member direct won’t allow me to buy additional units on the way down. I paid about $27.80 for WDS and will just hold now. WDS might get even cheaper is there’s a crash brewing or a correction soon. Oil prices are starting to recover now.

Longterm I think nuclear energy will replace fossil fuels to supply energy around the planet even it’s shunned in both Australia and NZ.

 

[qldfrog]

I bought WDS as well through member direct, aus super. Was ideally looking for undervalued names instead of stocks that were already expensive. Member direct won’t allow me to buy additional units on the way down. I paid about $27.80 for WDS and will just hold now. WDS might get even cheaper is there’s a crash brewing or a correction soon. Oil prices are starting to recover now.

Longterm I think nuclear energy will replace fossil fuels to supply energy around the planet even it’s shunned in both Australia and NZ.

Welcome to the a
Us super member direct, I actually added a small buy order there at a 27ish price .just in case..time will tell..af least the alp is getting some real world backfeed and not destroying gas anymore..one of the reason I offloaded wds lately was the woke/green danger

 

[Gretsch]

Let's be clear. Nuclear is years away. We have no experience in it and it's going to take a long, long time to get up to speed... just to build the first reactor. This should have been on the agenda 50 years ago.

 

[sptrawler]

Let's be clear. Nuclear is years away. We have no experience in it and it's going to take a long, long time to get up to speed... just to build the first reactor. This should have been on the agenda 50 years ago.

It was.
But there is no money in nuclear for private industry, it's expensive, it's got a lot of regulation, it isn't off the shelf from Bunnings, so there is no money it in the short term only over the life of the plant 80years or so.
Therfore the private sector is dead against it, there are far easier ways to make a buck in power generation, renwables and gas turbines.
But it was on the agenda 50 years ago. (LAO)

Nuclear power in Australia - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

1979 Perth, Western Australia[edit]​

In 1977–78, the Western Australian Government, under the leadership of Charles Court, announced plans for a nuclear power reactor near Perth. 1977 was seen as the year of mass mobilisation in WA, with 300 at the first anti-nuclear demonstration to 9,000 at the third protest in the inner city of Perth. Despite public protest, the WA Government selected a first site for a nuclear reactor in 1979 at Wilbinga, 70 kilometres north of Perth.