Was today a strange day or was it just me?????
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GreatPig
Pigs In Space
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By my approximation, XAO reaching 3900 or just below would satisfy the head and shoulders target fall.
Then a further drop to around 3850 would put it back near the longer term trend line.
GP
Then a further drop to around 3850 would put it back near the longer term trend line.
GP
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Well, wierd weird and wierder..
3 of my stocks are up, 2 are flat and one is down.... on a day like today! (I know if it was the other way around I wouldn't be posting
)
There seems to be a lot of cyclical stocks getting hit (ie ones that relay on general demand in economy - particularly consumers - for revenues). Also most small\mid caps are getting punished.
I am waiting to add to my BHP holding (bought last week $17), whenever the market starts to calm down. I get the general feeling that good companies with good revenues are getting taken down in the mess - I think there will be some very good opportunities soon (for me I'm looking at the medium term)
Meanwhile, trigger finger on the sell button at all times
and be safe in the knowledge that wherever the XAO is going - its getting closer to its destination every day
TJ
3 of my stocks are up, 2 are flat and one is down.... on a day like today! (I know if it was the other way around I wouldn't be posting
)There seems to be a lot of cyclical stocks getting hit (ie ones that relay on general demand in economy - particularly consumers - for revenues). Also most small\mid caps are getting punished.
I am waiting to add to my BHP holding (bought last week $17), whenever the market starts to calm down. I get the general feeling that good companies with good revenues are getting taken down in the mess - I think there will be some very good opportunities soon (for me I'm looking at the medium term)
Meanwhile, trigger finger on the sell button at all times
and be safe in the knowledge that wherever the XAO is going - its getting closer to its destination every day
TJ
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TjamesX said:Well, wierd weird and wierder..
3 of my stocks are up, 2 are flat and one is down.... on a day like today! (I know if it was the other way around I wouldn't be posting
TJ
Yup. Me 2. ;o)
I must say I feel a lot more comfortable now (even after having taken a bit of a hit) after shifting last month from higher risk/cyclicle stocks in order to add significantly to what was only a small proportion of more "defensive" utilities and energy plus cashing out the rest to a 5.5% cash management fund.
My total portfolio is now limited to APA, ORG, DUE, UTB, SGL & QGC.
The first 4 companies should provide reasonable regular dividend income and between the first three they own a major proportion of Australias gas supply network, while the two gas exploration/provider companies (no divs to date YET) have held up rather well compared to the rest of the market and look to be pretty safe bets over the longer term to me. At least that's the plan for NOW. Anything is liable to change of course.
You could say right now I'm fully gassed up! hehe.
Fingers crossed GWB doesn't throw a lighted match too close by.....
Stay HAPPY and think POSITIVE ;o)
AJ
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Smurf1976 said:So suppliers must be getting worried. More anecdotal evidence.
Could you advise on some of these Suppliers? I've been in the construction industry dealing with major developers and construction players for nearly 15 years and could not imagine that becoming a reality. There is always someone willing to give credit.
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I was just responding to a post from DTM who said that suppliers were wanting payment up front. I don't have any info other than what DTM posted. I assume that DTM has more knowledge on the specifics than I do.Stan 101 said:
My reason for commenting was that it is my observation that when someone in ANY industry wants payment up front then there are basically two reasons for it. One is that their own cash flow is poor and they need the cash to pay their own suppliers, wages etc. The other reason is because they don't trust that the customer is going to pay.
Given the recent boom in the building industry I very much doubt that anyone needs payment upfront in order to pay their own costs. If things are that tight following a massive boom then those suppliers are going out of business real soon. I therefore conclude that the reason for wanting payment upfront is because they are concerned that customers might not pay their debts.
If this is the case then it suggests that suppliers must be very worried about the prospects of their customers and thus the building industry in general. You don't normally shut down credit to existing customers without a very good reason since they may well go elsewhere in response. They must have a very good reason for doing so.
Perhaps DTM could add some info as to where the original comment came from since that was the basis of my comments? To me it's just another piece in the puzzle that points to a marked slowdown in real estate which is my key point.
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Sorry I didn't elaborate before. I was playing golf with a Developer and his suppliers and he was warning them to be careful. He had done well in the early 90's when there was a property crash and he was preparing himself to go through it again. He predicted that there will be a property crash in 1 to 2 years and was warning his friends/suppliers to start being careful.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Smurf.
There is another reason for upfront or negotiated early settlement of credit.
Thats is that we are so busy (As developers and contractors) and our clients want the very best---with project completion NOW.
That we cannot cashflow/(dont wish to) all projects and developements there is just too much of it around..
We are in the position to offer and negotiate better pricing for both the client and ourselves BY the offer of COD OR early settlement or EFT (Electronic funds transfer).
The 30 day from end of month credit is (In our industry) just gone.
You find that contractors like ourselves can and do demand fast payment simply because demand says we can.
Rather than a negative I think youll find this a HUGE positive for the construction/building/developement industry.
Sure you can get credit but you wont get the goods when you want them at the price you want them.-----Flash cash or Electronic Transfer in front of a suppliers nose and watch the price come down------do the same to the contractor and watch your waiting/construction time deminish.
Consider this.
I keep my ears to the ground with those who sell realestate both on a used and new basis.
This is what they are finding.
Strong demand from a NEW type of buyer.
These are the people who have an IP or 2 and they are now selling and FREEHOLDING or close to it-------- their dream homes.(In Adelaide the mean average home price was about $160K and is now around $260k these people are buying OR building $300-400k homes----and there arent enough---OR they are spending $150k on renovations).
There is a sad lack of Land for developers and a sad lack of trades when youve got it.Cash and EFT will be king-------credit will fall back as a fossil.
Doom and gloom---keep it coming.
Perhaps this conversation should be in its own thread.
"The Property doom myth!"
There is another reason for upfront or negotiated early settlement of credit.
Thats is that we are so busy (As developers and contractors) and our clients want the very best---with project completion NOW.
That we cannot cashflow/(dont wish to) all projects and developements there is just too much of it around..
We are in the position to offer and negotiate better pricing for both the client and ourselves BY the offer of COD OR early settlement or EFT (Electronic funds transfer).
The 30 day from end of month credit is (In our industry) just gone.
You find that contractors like ourselves can and do demand fast payment simply because demand says we can.
Rather than a negative I think youll find this a HUGE positive for the construction/building/developement industry.
Sure you can get credit but you wont get the goods when you want them at the price you want them.-----Flash cash or Electronic Transfer in front of a suppliers nose and watch the price come down------do the same to the contractor and watch your waiting/construction time deminish.
Consider this.
I keep my ears to the ground with those who sell realestate both on a used and new basis.
This is what they are finding.
Strong demand from a NEW type of buyer.
These are the people who have an IP or 2 and they are now selling and FREEHOLDING or close to it-------- their dream homes.(In Adelaide the mean average home price was about $160K and is now around $260k these people are buying OR building $300-400k homes----and there arent enough---OR they are spending $150k on renovations).
There is a sad lack of Land for developers and a sad lack of trades when youve got it.Cash and EFT will be king-------credit will fall back as a fossil.
Doom and gloom---keep it coming.
Perhaps this conversation should be in its own thread.
"The Property doom myth!"
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Interesting points, all... Sorry If I sounded harsh in my last post, I didn't mean to be... I should do "friendly posting 101."
It's very interesting.... the thread got me thinking and I called a few timber and hardware wholesalers today... Seems there is a glut of 70mm and 90mm pine at the moment. These products make up approximately 15 -20K in a modern 4 bedroom home. Timber prices are actually dropping in some areas.
Haven't seen that for several years.
It's very interesting.... the thread got me thinking and I called a few timber and hardware wholesalers today... Seems there is a glut of 70mm and 90mm pine at the moment. These products make up approximately 15 -20K in a modern 4 bedroom home. Timber prices are actually dropping in some areas.
Haven't seen that for several years.
