Was today a strange day or was it just me?????

[Fleeta]

Stefan and Tech/a, you two are like a married couple!

I think you both have good strategies, and neither are flawless. At the end of the day if you throw 100 coins in the air, you are going to get about 50 heads and 50 tails. You are both going to have winners and losers.

Stefan's strategy of only holding 8 stocks is good, because from personal experience, at one stage I held nearly 30 stocks and seriously couldn't find the time to know what was going on which each of them (not to mention the ridiculous amount of mail I got). At least with 8, you can be all over them. Tech/a, you seem to have a very agressive strategy and want to get the best possible return. Just remember there is always a bigger fish. You may just drive yourself crazy trying to get it.

Keep up the posts guys, they are highly informative and interesting.

 

[tech/a]

Firstly Fleeta.

The trading I do is as boaring as hell the average hold time for a winning trade off the top of my head is over a year.
For a losing trade around 40 days I think!

Hardly aggressive (Sure you dont mean me personally!) hahaha).
Actually if you can take 100 trades and have 50 of them profitable (which doesnt guarentee a profit incidently,infact 70% winners doesnt either!).Your doing very well.

I want to know that if Im trading I can be profitable with as low as 30% winners.

See thats what its all about 99% of traders think profitability means trading 51%+ winners.

Totally and unequivically 100% WRONG.
This again goes full circle to the WHAT makes your trading profitable.

Stefan.
In all fairness you may have backtested your method and found the What over even a 100 portfolios would be sufficient.Soon Ill be able to specifically discuss it,the what.
You may have also investigated or tested every possible case in your database and hypothetically if money wasnt an issue traded everyone.
Nett profitable?-----YES ----Possible winner but only possibly!.

General.

Why the hell do I need to know this stuff???

Without it your trading BLINDLY--your putting hard earned dollars and irreplacable time at RISK.Simply to be successful CONSISTANTLY you MUST know this.
Do you think a successful business just opens its doors and the profits flow?
Why is this any different?! Why do many fail and few succeed?

Fortunately this will remain here and when traders are at that time and space in their learning curve to accept and understand that this is their next step,here it will be.Its of no use until your at that point!

tech

 

[stefan]

In all fairness you may have backtested your method and found the What over even a 100 portfolios would be sufficient.Soon Ill be able to specifically discuss it,the what.

Tech, ok I'll wait until you get to the WHAT. Suits me well as I'm not around that much this week. I see you opened another thread so I'll stick around there.

Looking forward to WHAT you have to say

Happy trading

Stefan

 

[stefan]

Stefan and Tech/a, you two are like a married couple!

Fleeta, don't push it!

Happy trading

Stefan

 

[Fleeta]

C'mon Stefan, does the truth hurt you?

I'm only kidding - i'm just posting rubbish in order to get up to 0.30 posts per day so that I can enter the stock picking competition.

Who holds cash these days anyway? I've got 110% of my wealth in shares...dangerous I know, but until the tide turns it will stay that way.

 

[whisky6210]

According to historical information, the great crash of the 1930s showed a market high followed by big low then a super high followed by an even more super low.....
A bloodbath has been predicted for 2005, so I've liquidated and sitting on the fence (except for WMR)
For the brave ones amongst you....beware of tall buildings.


THE FEAR OF LOSING IS GREATER THAN THE JOY OF WINNING !

 

[The Barbarian Investor]

Great insights into both Tech/a and Stefan's views..enjoyed reading it immensley. Thanks for the initial post stefan ...

 

[el_ninj0]

I seemed to have an incredible day- almost every stock I follow pretty closely (about 25) had a down day and broke major support levels!!!!!! I've never seen anything like it. Anybody else have this or am I the only one?

Malachii

Ive been watching RTM, MGX, MXG, and AZR very closely today, all of them seemed to have strong falls in the early trading periods, and a slight come back in the later of the day. MGX had a massive fall early, which was totaly unpredictable in my opinion, but came back to 1c above open price at the end of trade, which I am also unsure as to why that happend(any comments on this would be greatly appreciated).

AZR also seemed to follow the same trend as MGX did, almost to the exact same percentages. Which was also very unusual. Can someone please explain to me how the banks can directly influence the price of the resource companies?, because to me, this makes no sense at all. If a resource company has its own announcements, own forecasts, how can the share price be influences to such a huge extent?

RTM was also hard hit today, again, in its 4th successive loss from its high of 17.5c, now down to 11.5c. Very risky, but could be a good time to buy if the results of the mine come through as positive.

MXG will be a top buy for this week, along with MAP, I believe them to be the most undervalued stocks on the market. By the way, MAP was one of the few stocks to show green today, up 3 cents. Even though comsec marks it as a sell, I think its still a good time to buy, mabey enter in at 3.16 if its reaches that low again.

Very volitile market at the moment, do your research well and best of luck to you all.

 

[el_ninj0]

According to historical information, the great crash of the 1930s showed a market high followed by big low then a super high followed by an even more super low.....
A bloodbath has been predicted for 2005, so I've liquidated and sitting on the fence (except for WMR)
For the brave ones amongst you....beware of tall buildings.


THE FEAR OF LOSING IS GREATER THAN THE JOY OF WINNING !

whisky, got some evidence on this bloodbath?, i'd like to know alot more aboutj it if you have some links i can take a look at?

thanks

 

[wayneL]

whisky, got some evidence on this bloodbath?, i'd like to know alot more aboutj it if you have some links i can take a look at?

thanks

How about a chart?

 

[el_ninj0]

Excellent, Thanks wayneL.

Didn't think anyone would have a chart of back in those days easily accessible. So can someone explain to me why the Dow Jones affected stock exchanges world world? Since it is intertwined to a degree, but nothing to the order of how it affected other markets.

 

[DTM]

The all ords have really dropped too quickly for me to think that it will turn bullish any time soon. I think that it will do two things. It will either bounce for a few days starting tomorrow before it turns back down again, or it will free fall tomorrow. If it does bounce, I think that it will give other people who couldn't get out, a chance to do so. Will be able to see better once I get my EOD data for the ASX.

I'm very bearish on the US market and think that we will follow the US. The US looks like it still has a long way down to go.

As Tech pointed out, it looks like we are in an elliot wave 5. Elliot studies were psycological studies based on greed. Greed is the main driver behind the wave 5 and there seems to have been a lot greed lately.

Happy and safe trading

 

[DTM]

Excellent, Thanks wayneL.

Didn't think anyone would have a chart of back in those days easily accessible. So can someone explain to me why the Dow Jones affected stock exchanges world world? Since it is intertwined to a degree, but nothing to the order of how it affected other markets.

Personally I think its because so many economies rely on a strong US. If the US stopped dead in its tracks, the repercussions on the Japanese and Chinese economies would do them in. And if it does the asians in, then there wouldn't be much that we could send overseas.

I'm not qualified enough to comment so these are just my thoughts.

 

[Smurf1976]

Everyone else seems to be looking at the technicals so I'll take a brief look at the fundamentals. This is more general economics than asx-specific stuff.

1. Interest rates are rising, lead by the US.

2. Pace of the above seems to be accelerating.

3. Substantial increase in oil use during 2005 is a physical impossibility since capacity is simply not there (yes I have taken account of all the new deepwater development).

4. It is somewhat controversial but in broad terms the housing market is going bad in most locations, particularly at the top end.

5. General attitude to point 4 seems to have abruptly shifted in recent weeks acknowledging reality.

6. US Bond markets moving in the direction of higher yields.

7. Bond yield curve has been inverted in recent times(!!!).

8. Consumer debt is at historically high levels.

9. Australia's current account deficit is 7.1% of GDP - not yet a crisis but uncomfortably high.

10. Reports suggest that Chinese bank loans are lacking in quality (to put it politely).

11. A shortage of skilled workers throughout many parts of the economy.

12. US stock indices remain well below 2000 peak.

13. We have just had a 2 year rise in the stock market without a major correction.

14. Aussie Dollar looks toppy.

15. War talk is back in the news, this time with Iran.

And on I could go. Point is that if you look at what is going on then it seems pretty reasonable to conclude that shares in general are due for a fall. Add in the technicals as others have done and it looks pretty convincing to me!

 

[wayneL]

:arsch:

 

[el_ninj0]

Loooks like we are headed for a rise today, since the Dow Jones is back up in action, 135 points ahead. But yer, I also think its only temporary. Im going to try and make some gains on what I can today and sell off in the afternoon, But I think it'll be a hard one to predict again.

 

[wayneL]

Just for a bit of fun, here is a chart of the 70's bear....a 47% decline.

A result of the first oil shock......

 

[wayneL]

EA warns against possible acute oil shortage

01.04.2005, 11.51


PARIS, April 1 (Itar-Tass) -- The International Energy Agency (IEA) has come to the conclusion that the world economy is facing a serious threat of acute oil shortage. IEA experts have prepared a special report, due to be published within a few weeks, in which they warn the key oil consuming countries about the need for immediately taking tough energy-saving measures, if the daily oil supply to the world market is reduced by one to two million barrels.

The measures, suggested by IEA, include the reduction of a working week, a ban on using privately owned vehicles, the introduction of a 90-kilometre speed limit, the reduction of public transport fare and the encouragement of staff members to work at home, using Internet.

The conclusions drawn by the IEA experts reflect their growing concern over the macroeconomic dynamics taking shape on the world oil market. According to the information of Itar-Tass, the latest studies show that oil shortage will become more and more acute within the coming few months.

As a result of it, IEA insists now on the changing of one of its basic principles. Its founding documents say that tough energy-saving measures should be taken by oil consuming countries, if oil deliveries to the world market are reduced by 7 per cent, which is now equal to six million barrels a day. IEA is going to reduce the amount to one or two million barrels.

The report, prepared by IEA, will be submitted for discussion at a meeting of ministers of energy of the IEA member countries, which will be held next month.

 

[el_ninj0]

EA warns against possible acute oil shortage

In the event this does happen, would it be best not to have anything in the market at the time? Or which would be the best sector to have your investments in if there is to be a oil shortage?

 

[Smurf1976]

If we are going to ration oil consumption then there goes the prospect of the price going to the moon.

Government intervention, socialism, is aimed at least partly at avoiding a price shock in this sort of situation.

So don't plan your strategy around a price spike that may not happen.

By the way, OPEC can't actually meet the 500kbpd output hike it is proposing unless it produces at an unsustainable rate, continuance of which threatens permanent damage to fields.