I started this thread in the Business Investment Economics thread to maybe focus on the economic /social impact of the war. For examples issues around the loss of Ukraine grain to world markets impacting on political/economic stability.
There are a number of threads on the conduct of the war and so on. I thought this one might focus on the above issues. I started it before the invasion when investors might have some consideration of the economic consequences. Frankly I think they are enormous.
@Dona Ferentesmeanwhile , in the real world
Russian forces made minor advances in the ongoing offensive in eastern Ukraine on April 19, seizing several small towns and advancing into the key frontline towns of Rubizhne and Popasna. Russian forces continued major assaults with heavy air and artillery support but are continuing to build the logistics and command-and-control capabilities necessary for a larger offensive. Russian forces have not achieved any major breakthroughs, nor have they demonstrated any new capability to conduct multiple successful, simultaneous advances. Russian forces additionally made grinding progress against remaining Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol’s Azovstal Steel Works and announced plans for a May 9 Victory Day parade in the city – indicating Russian forces will declare victory in Mariupol by that date at the latest.
- ISW
No offence taken and my post wasn't intended to upset either.tell you what @Craton . At least I'm on message, rather than the post previous to mine. I have set the screens and don't get General Chat, as I prefer to talk about stocks. Sorry if I offended you.
That's when covid started in Australia..... sussI’ve been a member since March 2020.
GG makes an accusation, refuses to offer evidence, and then blocks so he can hide from the truth.
Ignorance is bliss, for some.
As I understand it, the Black Sea fleet Naval infantry was in the fight at Mariupol and hence any move against Odesa couldn't happen. Then the Moskva went down. Also the Chechens were there, but probably less effective than some thought.Possibly fantastic news if it isn't a trap or fake news.
Possible that Russia may be running out of resources and need to prioritise other areas. Or that they have come to the realisation that they shouldn't be caught up on one area.
Well done to those Ukraine fighters. Will go down in history.
A nice counter to the above is the "moral sunk costs fallacy fallacy". No not a typo:The problem of moral sunk costs pervades decision-making with respect to war. In the terms of just war theory, it may seem that incurring a large moral cost results in permissiveness: if a just goal may be reached at a small cost beyond that which was deemed proportionate at the outset of war, how can it be reasonable to require cessation?
On this view, moral costs already expended could have major implications for the ethics of conflict termination. Discussion of sunk costs in moral theorizing about war has settled into four camps: Quota, Prospect, Addition, and Discount.
Don’t cry over spilled milk, or so the expression goes. The so called sunk cost fallacy claims that there is a bias humans have to follow through on an endeavor if we have already invested time, effort or money into it, whether or not the current costs outweigh the benefits.
My take is that moral sunk costs, at an emotive level, is a "thing" that can be applied to all investments across the board.It is irrational to use irrecoverable costs as rationale for making a present decision.
If we acted rationally, only future costs and benefits would be taken into account, because regardless of what we have already invested, we will not get it back whether or not we follow through on the decision.
"One way or another, the world will have to get used to four to five million barrels less of Russian crude, later this year."On the day 2nd of India Economic Conclave: 'Russia is already facing a hard cash crunch but this war had to happen still India is in good position', says Geopolitical Strategist, Peter Zeihan in an interesting conversation with MK Anand (MD & CEO, Times Network) on the 2022 India Economic Conclave
Schlumberger and Halliburton have left Russia. How do they keep their wells operating, let alone drill without them?"One way or another, the world will have to get used to four to five million barrels less of Russian crude, later this year."
Have the markets started to factor in a pending oil shortage and how that will impact on world economic output?
Halliburton have left Russia. How do they keep their wells operating, let alone drill without them?
Description:
So apparently hour long presentations on defence investment weren't dry enough, so I'm dusting off the Economics degree (strongly recommended when pairing with military or strategic studies) to ask the question of what the economic situation may be if this war drags on.
Description: Continuing on from our look at the relative economic power of Russia as compared to Ukraine and its supporters in NATO, today I look a little more at the question of military equipment resupply specifically.
WASHINGTON ― The U.S. may not be able to make more of the shoulder-fired Stinger anti-aircraft missiles it has been sending to Ukraine until at least 2023 due to parts and materials shortages, the head of manufacturer Raytheon Technologies said Tuesday.
The revelation, during Raytheon’s quarterly earnings call, underscores the challenge facing the Pentagon and defense industry as they seek to boost arms production in response to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. The bottleneck is fueling recommendations from Capitol Hill that President Joe Biden invoke the Defense Production Act to prioritize supplies of components for weapons like the Stinger.
Echoing a Center for Strategic and International Studies assessment, Blumenthal said the U.S. had likely sent Ukraine one-third of its Javelins and that it would take a year to ramp up Javelin production and 32 months to replenish Javelin supplies.
“The cupboard is empty, or it will be very, very shortly unless the president invokes the Defense Production Act to provide that demand signal on an expedited basis,” Blumenthal said.
We’ll keep incurring costs long after President Biden's pullout from Afghanistan is complete. Naturally, the United States has financed the Afghan war with borrowed money. Brown University researchers estimate that more than $500 billion in interest has already been paid (included in the $2.26 trillion total sum), and they figure that by 2050 the cost of interest alone on our Afghan war debt could reach $6.5 trillion. That amounts to $20,000 for each and every U.S. citizen.
Scomos bushmasters finally arrived in Poland. Wonder how long they last out in the field. Appears quite a few arms supplied by west falling into Russian hands...
View attachment 140917
It's about technical ability, ethics or not.Is this a joke, Halliburton one of the most immoral corrupt companies around is pretending to have a moral compass.
Something doesn't add up.
| Company | Estimated loss and or write down/off |
| Netflix (Online Streaming) | $54.0 billion (stock valuation drop due to losing over 700k in subs) |
| BP (Oil/Gas -UK) | $25 billion (exit and loss of a third of reserves) |
| Shell (Oil/Gas - UK) | $5.0 billion |
| Exxon Mobil (Oil/Gas - USA) | $4.0 billion |
| Societe Generale (French Bank) | $3.1 billion (write off) |
| Citigroup (Banking/Financial Services) | $3.0 billion (in losses) |
| Renalt (French Car Manufacturer) | $2.42 billion (write down) |
| Carlsberg (Brewer) | $1.4 billion |
| AB InBev (Brewer) | $1.1 billion |
| McDonalds (Fast Food) | $600 million (plus $50 million to be paid to employees) |
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