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War threat in Ukraine

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Microsoft has released a report on the "hybrid war" about Russian cyber warfare and hacking attempts that started as early as Mar 2021.
Today, we released a report detailing the relentless and destructive Russian cyberattacks we’ve observed in a hybrid war against Ukraine, and what we’ve done to help protect Ukrainian people and organizations. We believe it’s important to share this information so that policymakers and the public around the world know what’s occurring, and so others in the security community can continue to identify and defend against this activity. All of this work is ultimately focused on protecting civilians from attacks that can directly impact their lives and their access to critical services.
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As a Ukraine supporter, Australia will be an even higher priority on the already targeted list.

21 Apr 2022: our ACSC on Russian sponsored and Criminal cyber threats.

The cybersecurity authorities of the United States, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom are releasing this joint Cybersecurity Advisory (CSA). The intent of this joint CSA is to warn organizations that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has altered the geopolitical balance in ways that could expose organizations both within and beyond the region to increased malicious cyber activity. This activity may occur as a response to the unprecedented economic costs imposed on Russia as well as materiel support provided by the United States and U.S. allies and partners.
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Also from the ACSC and just on one of the losses here in Australia 2020-2021:

Self-reported losses from cybercrime total more than $33 billion.
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Little wonder Scomo increased funding to the Signals Directorate. Pity the spin was China focused.

Australia’s top cyber spy agency will double in size with its budget boosted by $9.9 billion, as the Morrison government confronts the rising cyber threat posed by China, other malign countries and hackers to safeguard national sovereignty.
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More Putin mafia *cough* business tactics.

From DW
The Kremlin is exerting pressure to bring as many companies back to Russia as possible. Using questionable methods. The German automotive supplier Continental, for example, was forced to restart production at its Kaluga plant southwest of Moscow - due to the threat of reprisals.
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April 2022 World Bank report. Outlook on how the conflict is impacting on commodity markets, 2022 to 2024.
Investing/trading in the appropriate stocks/markets might offset the hikes across all price points.

From the report, here's a selection of 2022 forecast percentage changes from 2021.
Note the negative commodities at the end over the same period.

Coal - Australia: up 81.1%

Crude oil - Brent: up 42.0%

Natural gas - Europe: up 111.0%

Fertilizer - Potassium Chloride: up 147.4%

Coffee - Arabica: up 21.9%

Meat/chicken: up 41.8%

Palm oil: up 45.9%

Cotton - A Index: up 39.0%

Wheat - US HRW: up 42.7%

Aluminium: up 37.5%

Nickel: up 51.6%

Timber (-4.5%) along with Tea, Rice and Silver are in the negative.

WASHINGTON, April 26, 2022—The war in Ukraine has dealt a major shock to commodity markets, altering global patterns of trade, production, and consumption in ways that will keep prices at historically high levels through the end of 2024, according to the World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook report.
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Physical gestures and posture seem to be at odds so...

Putin’s Cancer Surgery Fact Or Fiction? Will Ex-FSB Chief Patrushev Be Given Charge Of Ukraine War?​

 
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Since the beginning of February, the US committed to giving Ukraine 5,500 Javelin systems, which are produced by US defence contractors Raytheon and Lockheed Martin and are each worth about $US178,000.

www.abc.net.au

Why the world's weapons makers aren't yet making big bucks off the war in Ukraine

When Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine at the end of February, the stock prices of many of the world's biggest arms manufacturers spiked. However, most of the hardware being sent to Ukraine is coming from donor nations' existing inventories.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
 
Should the West fight to the last Ukrainian city ? How do we resolve the war before Ukraine is bombed back to the Stone Age ?

Some food for thought here.

Further arming Ukraine will only destroy it. The west must act to end this war now​

Angus Roxburgh


By providing arms but avoiding military intervention western leaders are prolonging this hideous conflict. Talks are the best way out
3500.jpg
A theatre destroyed during conflict in Mariupol, Ukraine, 25 April 2022. Photograph: Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters
Wed 27 Apr 2022 15.00 BSTLast modified on Thu 28 Apr 2022 12.48 BS

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/apr/27/ukraine-war-end-putin-russia-talks#comments
421
Few people in the west doubt that Ukraine is fighting a just war. Russia’s invasion was entirely unprovoked. Whatever complaints it may have had about Nato expansion or Ukraine’s mistreatment of Russians in Donbas, nobody had attacked Russia, and nobody was planning to. Vladimir Putin launched a straightforward war of aggression and territorial conquest.

It follows that supporting Ukraine is the right thing to do. But it is not at all clear that the kind of support we are giving (and not giving) is the right way to go about preserving the Ukrainian nation.

The longer this war rages on, the more Ukrainians will flee their homeland, and the more devastation will be wrought upon their homes, cities, industry and economy. Yet the west’s current approach of supporting Ukraine’s war aim of defeating the aggressor, and providing arms for that purpose while pointedly avoiding direct military intervention, is guaranteed to prolong the war. Russia’s progress may be slowed, but it’s highly unlikely to be stopped, far less pushed out of Ukraine, and in the meantime the grinding destruction and hideous war crimes will continue.

www.theguardian.com

Further arming Ukraine will only destroy it. The west must act to end this war now | Angus Roxburgh

By providing arms but avoiding military intervention western leaders are prolonging this hideous conflict, says former BBC Moscow correspondent Angus Roxburgh
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
Doesn't help the current situation but as an optimist and assuming Ukraine succeeds in ousting the Russians, the rebuild could have a global positive. Along with trade restarting/re-opening and the employment up tick, a more unified Europe bodes well for increased security, trade and mutual co-operation.
 
basilio said:
Should the West fight to the last Ukrainian city ? How do we resolve the war before Ukraine is bombed back to the Stone Age ?

Some food for thought here.

Further arming Ukraine will only destroy it. The west must act to end this war now​

Angus Roxburgh


By providing arms but avoiding military intervention western leaders are prolonging this hideous conflict. Talks are the best way out
View attachment 141406
A theatre destroyed during conflict in Mariupol, Ukraine, 25 April 2022. Photograph: Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters
Wed 27 Apr 2022 15.00 BSTLast modified on Thu 28 Apr 2022 12.48 BS

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/apr/27/ukraine-war-end-putin-russia-talks#comments
421
Few people in the west doubt that Ukraine is fighting a just war. Russia’s invasion was entirely unprovoked. Whatever complaints it may have had about Nato expansion or Ukraine’s mistreatment of Russians in Donbas, nobody had attacked Russia, and nobody was planning to. Vladimir Putin launched a straightforward war of aggression and territorial conquest.

It follows that supporting Ukraine is the right thing to do. But it is not at all clear that the kind of support we are giving (and not giving) is the right way to go about preserving the Ukrainian nation.

The longer this war rages on, the more Ukrainians will flee their homeland, and the more devastation will be wrought upon their homes, cities, industry and economy. Yet the west’s current approach of supporting Ukraine’s war aim of defeating the aggressor, and providing arms for that purpose while pointedly avoiding direct military intervention, is guaranteed to prolong the war. Russia’s progress may be slowed, but it’s highly unlikely to be stopped, far less pushed out of Ukraine, and in the meantime the grinding destruction and hideous war crimes will continue.

www.theguardian.com

Further arming Ukraine will only destroy it. The west must act to end this war now | Angus Roxburgh

By providing arms but avoiding military intervention western leaders are prolonging this hideous conflict, says former BBC Moscow correspondent Angus Roxburgh
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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Putin needs to go first.
 
moXJO said:
Putin needs to go first.
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Yep, he along with all the other "leaders" that do his bidding, ergo the one in Belarus, Chechnya, Serbia etc and those in the PMC (Wagner Group) et al.
 
Another problem this war will cause is a complete rethink by the Russians of how they run their military. They will most likely restructure tactics and training.
 
moXJO said:
Another problem this war will cause is a complete rethink by the Russians of how they run their military. They will most likely restructure tactics and training.
Click to expand...
the only way they restructure is by purging leadership.
 
Putin had three general options for his Victory Day address:
  • declare some sort of Russian victory,
  • make a policy change to ramp up the war effort in some way (such as by calling for a larger-scale mobilization or formally declaring war on Ukraine), or
  • what he chose—to pursue a steady state narrative and reinforce the Kremlin’s existing framing (and resourcing) of the war.
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So the grinding down continues.
 
It was pointed out by one commentator that there were about 10,000 troops in the May Day parade. That is at the low end estimates of the number of Russian KIA in Ukraine. Add in the Ukrainian military and civilian casualties then the appalling waste of life in this conflict can begin to be comprehended.
 

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