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War threat in Ukraine

Gaps in the narrative .... nobody's fault but mine, I guess, for putting the weevil (a cereal pest) on ignore.

Some of the replies make sense now, but that's the way its gotta be.
I must admit I am considering a long break from ASF due to the recent trolling from @3 hound , @JohnDe and @Iron Triangle

Putting Trolls on ignore means that intelligent long term posters comments are hidden in "What's New", if the Trolls have posted

I believe the moderation could be more assertive from @Joe Blow and @Sean K .

This is a great disappointment to me as a long term member of ASF.

There is a difference between differing opinions, friendly and unfriendly banter AND Trolling.

gg
 
I actually don’t even think globalisation is the main problem, if anything it was the move to “just in time manufacturing” that caused the system to not be able to cope with supply chains that slowed.

But Australia is struggling with supply chains that are local to, eg it’s impossible to get frozen chips for the last couple of months, apparently due to labour shortages due to covid isolations.

Of course the minute the supply chain slows because of international covid lock downs we blame globalisation, but exactly the same thing is happening locally, so I blame covid, not globalisation.
 
I'm more of a "never ignore anyone".
Half the time there's common ground on other issues.
I don’t ignore just because I disagree with people, but I will ignore if the person is not approaching discussions with intellectual honesty or has their head cabbaged up with cynicism and just wants to grind their favourite axe.
 

2 of those accounts were made just around 2 weeks within of each other and in the last 4-5 weeks... coincidence? maybe
 
I've just taken a quick look at this thread. I have a couple of comments.


If you are going to participate in debate and discussion then keep it civil, don't put words in people's mouths, and back up your positions with well reasoned argument. If you are uncertain about what someone is saying, then ask them to clarify instead of going on the attack and hurling insults, which will just cause the level of debate to degenerate further.


It's Easter GG. I've been taking a bit of a break. I think Sean has too. If a post goes over the line can you please report it. I think there is some minor trolling here, but it's also clearly an emotive topic, and this is causing some hand wringing, irrational debate and emotional outbursts, which is to be expected.

To all: Please keep it civil and constructive. Try and keep emotion out of the debate and be respectful and courteous to others, even when you disagree with them. I will not take kindly to any trolling or disruptive conduct. Have a happy Easter!
 
Your points are back to front, and if you are going to suggest I am confused, then show it to be the case rather than accuse me of nitpicking.
 
Don’t know what you’re talking about, I have never trolled you, and I haven’t been posting much lately.

Show me your concern so I can improve.
 
For those that can, enjoy your Easter break and remember the reasons.

Stay safe.
 

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Globalisation was meant to make the world immune to supply chain issues and shortages all while at the lowest possible cost to the consumer.

Another brilliant idea that ends up being the opposite of brilliant.
Like most things it comes down to the issue that the initial change results in further change which renders the initial assumptions incorrect.

Simple example.

10 countries all produce commodity x and are independent.

Allowing trade between those 10 countries strengthens resilience since a major problem in any one of them can be at least partially offset by using surplus capacity in the others. Or via pricing they can all ration use a bit and share the pain.

Trouble is that you come back a few years later and find that of those 10 countries, only two of them still produce x at all since the other 8 couldn't compete economically. What you now have is total production extremely vulnerable to a single incident combined with the added political risk that those two now have a position of power they didn't have previously.

Globalisation isn't a new thing, it has come and gone previously and we're simply seeing a repeat of that cycle. If history's any guide then the turning point involves a major war - 1914 and WW1 marked the end of globalisation last time. Hence it's no surprise that if you look at industry in Australia, there's some pretty big stuff that happened immediately after that. Now we're back to a point of having not much industry, failing globalisation and the prospect of major war. The wheel goes around.
 

That's not very optimistic.
 

This is a very significant post. Smurf is spot on with regard to the earlier expansion of international trade and globalisation. This occurred world wide in the late 19th Century. There were also a number of previous trading empires.
Check out the short short of globilization.

 
I actually don’t even think globalisation is the main problem, if anything it was the move to “just in time manufacturing” that caused the system to not be able to cope with supply chains that slowed.
Indeed.. And from an investment POV the catastrophe in Ukraine will have far reaching impact around the world. The example of Neon shortage is one area. I think the risk of mass social collapse with food shortages is also on the table with far more critical consequences

I truly wonder is anyone in any country is actually coming up with some way of replacing the lost grain from Ukraine with some other form of sustenance before the proverbial hits the fan.
 
I truly wonder is anyone in any country is actually coming up with some way of replacing the lost grain from Ukraine with some other form of sustenance before the proverbial hits the fan.

I am sure all our politicians on both side see are right now feverishly working up several contingency plans with all branches of the government, the emergency services, the defence force, key farming groups, transport chiefs and the banking and financial sector.

We are very fortunate that way.
 
The grain issue is not that big of a deal, and can be easily fixed rather quickly if necessary, the simple fix is for people to eat less meat, 40% of the worlds grain gets fed to livestock in factory farms, and only 6% of soy beans are eaten by humans the majority are consumed by chickens and pigs.

If every one just ate a bit less meat, and maybe included a bit of tofu instead, there wouldn’t be a grain shortage.

Of course in reality that won’t happen, the rich nations will continue push the grain into factory farms, and out of the reach of the poorer nations.
 
Indeed... That must be the way we operate surely ? I mean how could everyone seeing such an obvious critical problem not be working together to come up with contingency plans ?

Let me ask the flying pig formation for their take of the situation...
 
Let me ask the flying pig formation for their take of the situation...


Report back with your findings, just the executive summary, the plans will be far too meticulously detailed to post in full.

I will standby and keep clicking the refresh button while I await your briefing.
 

Found the below on my Russia/China internet travels, also reported here.

UnionPay refuses to cooperate with Sberbank due to the risk of secondary sanctions – The Moscow Times

 
2 of those accounts were made just around 2 weeks within of each other and in the last 4-5 weeks... coincidence? maybe


I’ve been a member since March 2020.

GG makes an accusation, refuses to offer evidence, and then blocks so he can hide from the truth.

Ignorance is bliss, for some.
 
meanwhile , in the real world

Russian forces made minor advances in the ongoing offensive in eastern Ukraine on April 19, seizing several small towns and advancing into the key frontline towns of Rubizhne and Popasna. Russian forces continued major assaults with heavy air and artillery support but are continuing to build the logistics and command-and-control capabilities necessary for a larger offensive. Russian forces have not achieved any major breakthroughs, nor have they demonstrated any new capability to conduct multiple successful, simultaneous advances. Russian forces additionally made grinding progress against remaining Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol’s Azovstal Steel Works and announced plans for a May 9 Victory Day parade in the city – indicating Russian forces will declare victory in Mariupol by that date at the latest.
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ISW
 
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