Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[Garpal Gumnut]

I thought I'd start a stock and economic thread on Trump' next Presidency and his effect on economies and stocks. He has already moved markets, indices and commodities and he has not yet even been inaugurated. I subscribe at a cheap rate to the New York Times, ( to do Wordle and share results with some fellow Wordlers ).

It is an absolute left wing rag full of the usual woke propaganda. I'll probably not renew.

Below is an email I received this evening from the NYT which seems reasonable in it's assessments.

President-elect Donald Trump’s economic policy is already roiling global markets. Brendan McDermid/Reuters​

The other Trump trade​

Investors and policymakers are getting a dose of Trumponomics déjà vu this morning.

Global stocks are falling, and the dollar is climbing. The volatility comes after President-elect Donald Trump’s vow to impose tariffs on the United States’ biggest trading partners — Canada, China and Mexico — on Day 1 in office in an apparent effort to clamp down on the flow of cross-border drugs, like fentanyl, and migrants.

The latest:

Trump wants to impose 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico “on ALL products coming into the United States,” he said on Truth Social. He also wants an “additional” 10 percent tariff on imports from China, which Trump blames for the fentanyl crisis, a charge that Beijing has repeatedly disputed. The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso fell sharply against the dollar. Europe, Japan and South Korea weren’t even mentioned in Trump’s announcement, but stocks have fallen there, too. That suggests rising fears that a new trade war could scramble global supply chains and dent profits. Automakers are some of the hardest hit stocks, with Volkswagen, Stellantis and Nissan, which run manufacturing operations in Mexico, all down.

Today’s losses have reversed some of yesterday’s “Bessent bounce” rally. Investors were relieved after Trump picked Scott Bessent, the market-friendly hedge fund mogul, to run the Treasury Department.

But the reverberations show that it’s Trump calling the shots. The president-elect has made no secret of his desire to use tariffs to further his America-first agenda, and he has yet to announce his pick to be U.S. Trade Representative. (Another tariff supporter, Robert Lighthizer, is in the running.)

Trump’s latest threats may be just a negotiating tactic. That’s the belief of some Trump backers, including Bill Ackman, the billionaire financier. But they are a reminder of how Trump set off alarm bells across diplomatic channels and international markets during his first term often via social media posts. “Waking up to check the tweets for any policy announcements could become the norm,” Mohit Kumar, an economist at Jefferies, wrote in a note this morning.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada spoke to Trump about trade and border security after the president-elect’s announcement, The Times reported.

China pushed back. “No one will win a trade war,” a spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington said in a statement.

Tying the tariffs to border security could make negotiations even trickier. But given the seemingly intractable nature of the U.S. border crisis, it sets a high bar for successful trade negotiations. On the flip side, calling the measures a national security imperative might bolster Trump’s legal authority to bypass Congress in enacting the measures. A reminder: once tariffs are introduced, they’re not easy to roll back.

gg

 

[divs4ever]

Bye-Bye, What Americans Buy - Ep 995



as annoying as i find Peter Schiff's voice and ideas , i still listen to him

is he correct this coming era ?

i suspect Trump is 50% bluff , but what if he isn't

China will win because most of China's trading partners aren't terrified China will seize their assets ( and they have more hard-working people

i still think India ( and Indonesia ) offer the better path to growth

China will answer tariffs with selective export bans , look for an explosion in 'black-market trading '

 

[TimeISmoney]

To put things into greater perspective, Michael Burry has sold out of US stocks and bought into Chinese stocks and Buffet seems to be holding a lot of cash. I suspect things aren't going to be great in the months ahead.

 

[divs4ever]

To put things into greater perspective, Michael Burry has sold out of US stocks and bought into Chinese stocks and Buffet seems to be holding a lot of cash. I suspect things aren't going to be great in the months ahead.

i see troubled times ahead , but some positions are so damn sweet ( where i am up more than 10X on div. payers ) and the ones i would consider dumping .. i can't find a better place to invest the proceeds .

but i DO expect i will have some sleepless nights and some tough choices( and that is half the battle .. ready to do something , ( not paralyzed )

maybe i will get through this ( relatively ) OK , like i did in March 2020 or maybe not , but at least i have some plans , a little reserve cash

 

[Smurf1976]

One practical issue is Trump supports the construction of more LNG export facilities in the US.

Compared to not doing so, that should raise US domestic market natural gas prices and lower international LNG prices, noting at present there's quite a gap between them.

 

[houtman]

One practical issue is Trump supports the construction of more LNG export facilities in the US.

Compared to not doing so, that should raise US domestic market natural gas prices and lower international LNG prices, noting at present there's quite a gap between them.

Yes the cheap gas gives the US a lot of local advantages.

Chemical, manufacturing, fertilizers, cooking, along with residential heating all enjoy the lower price.

Tariffs along with increased local prices = ?

There could be a long queue forming behind Trudeau.

China pushed back. “No one will win a trade war,” a spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington said in a statement.

I'd say that too, if I was winning the trade war.

I'm looking fwd to the 1st week of the Presidency, it feels like it's now or never for the USA to maintain its relevance over the long term.

Not selling my gold shares though.

 

[TimeISmoney]

Putin is starting to push back on Trump's threats.

 

[investor13]

To put things into greater perspective, Michael Burry has sold out of US stocks and bought into Chinese stocks and Buffet seems to be holding a lot of cash. I suspect things aren't going to be great in the months ahead.

I’m confused as to why people still mention Burey, yes he called the GFC correctly and made a lot of money but he has been wrong about everything else.
The only person that has a worse track record is that Harry Dent and his doomsday predictions

 

[TimeISmoney]

I’m confused as to why people still mention Burey, yes he called the GFC correctly and made a lot of money but he has been wrong about everything else.
The only person that has a worse track record is that Harry Dent and his doomsday predictions

No one can precisely foresee the future, but Burry manages more money than what most traders have seen in their lifetime.

Even Buffet has cashed in.

 

[investor13]

No one can precisely foresee the future, but Burry manages more money than what most traders have seen in their lifetime.

Even Buffet has cashed in.

Buffett has been in cash for years, recently selling a large % of apple despite the stock that’s still strongly bullish, to increase his cash position to some 300 billion. The market is due for a correction. Buffett unlike burry doesn’t make stupid predictions and never happen

 

[divs4ever]

I’m confused as to why people still mention Burey, yes he called the GFC correctly and made a lot of money but he has been wrong about everything else.
The only person that has a worse track record is that Harry Dent and his doomsday predictions

but all you need is ONE big winner to make a name , and nullifies most of the dud calls elsewhere

( economists do that all the time )

as a former class-mate pointed out to the professors at the University of Queensland , so they asked him to leave .. and off to the US he went , now a triple Ph.D and faculty dean at a fairly prestigious university in ECONOMICS , co-authored several reference books as well in his spare time

the BIG thing about getting the prediction correct is .. to have the money on the winning move

 

[divs4ever]

Buffett has been in cash for years, recently selling a large % of apple despite the stock that’s still strongly bullish, to increase his cash position to some 300 billion. The market is due for a correction. Buffett unlike burry doesn’t make stupid predictions and never happen

all Warren has to do is have the cash available and let desperate corporations come to him ( with a sweet deal )

all Warren needs to do is watch the debt levels ( and maturities ) of the businesses around him , and assess which is the best deal for him ( and Berkshire )

 

[TimeISmoney]

all Warren has to do is have the cash available and let desperate corporations come to him ( with a sweet deal )

all Warren needs to do is watch the debt levels ( and maturities ) of the businesses around him , and assess which is the best deal for him ( and Berkshire )

And buys his way into positions on boards.

 

[Smurf1976]

Buffett has been in cash for years, recently selling a large % of apple despite the stock that’s still strongly bullish, to increase his cash position to some 300 billion.

Thing with Buffet is he doesn't try and nail the timing precisely. He just works out the "what" then positions accordingly waiting for the inevitable to occur.

 

[moXJO]

Does value investing still make sense?
Feel like you miss out on massive gains.

 

[investor13]

And buys his way into positions on boards.

Buys enough % of shares to have influence on the board

 

[wayneL]

Does value investing still make sense?
Feel like you miss out on massive gains.

Value? What is this foreign concept of which you speak?

 

[Smurf1976]

Does value investing still make sense?
Feel like you miss out on massive gains.

An issue for the likes of Buffett or others with serious $ is the problem of getting into a position, or out of one, without attracting attention and meaningfully moving the share price.

A small investor can buy $5k worth of stock without anyone noticing and with no meaningful impact on the market.

That doesn't work if your "small investment' is $100 million and the stock normally only trades $2 million a day worth.

Investing is somewhat unusual as an activity in that small players have options for doing things that professionals would find hard to execute in practice.

 

[Value Hunter]

I’m confused as to why people still mention Burey, yes he called the GFC correctly and made a lot of money but he has been wrong about everything else.
The only person that has a worse track record is that Harry Dent and his doomsday predictions

Burry's move is very simple to explain. U.S. stocks are overvalued and Chinese stocks are undervalued therefore he is selling his overvalued U.S. stocks to buy undervalued Chinese stocks. The P.E. ratio of the Chinese stock market is half the U.S. stock market.

 

[Value Hunter]

An issue for the likes of Buffett or others with serious $ is the problem of getting into a position, or out of one, without attracting attention and meaningfully moving the share price.

A small investor can buy $5k worth of stock without anyone noticing and with no meaningful impact on the market.

That doesn't work if your "small investment' is $100 million and the stock normally only trades $2 million a day worth.

Investing is somewhat unusual as an activity in that small players have options for doing things that professionals would find hard to execute in practice.

That is true but its a double edged sword. Buffett can buy enough shares in a company to influence the board in some cases if he so chooses. Also he can do deals with companies for convertible preferred shares, institutional share placements, etc that normal investors cannot do. Furthermore he would have better access to management and more information in general due to his network.