Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[Garpal Gumnut]

I don't believe it is all Trump.

January and February are not the best of months and markets are overdue for a pullback. Trump's pro-market measures, tax cuts and deregulation are yet to commence.

gg

 

[moXJO]

then what's Musk?

Slightly autistic

 

[moXJO]

I don't believe it is all Trump.

January and February are not the best of months and markets are overdue for a pullback. Trump's pro-market measures, tax cuts and deregulation are yet to commence.

gg

This crash has been brewing for a while. I like the volatility that Trump announcements create.

 

[divs4ever]

This crash has been brewing for a while. I like the volatility that Trump announcements create.

i was expecting the 'mother of all crashes late 2019 which left me looking silly but nicely positioned for March 2020 ( a useful wad of cash and nearly 10% of the portfolio in 'reverse index' ETFs)

maybe they were trying to blame Trump even back then ( when it was really crazy/reckless borrowing )

 

[moXJO]

i was expecting the 'mother of all crashes late 2019 which left me looking silly but nicely positioned for March 2020 ( a useful wad of cash and nearly 10% of the portfolio in 'reverse index' ETFs)

maybe they were trying to blame Trump even back then ( when it was really crazy/reckless borrowing )

I was thinking it as well round that time. I've come to realise it's just the timing between blackswan events that may or may not crash the market.

 

[Knobby22]

The infamous Smmot Hawley Act only had 20% tariffs.

Formally called the United States Tariff Act of 1930, the law is commonly referred to as the Smoot-Hawley Tariff or the Hawley-Smoot Tariff. It was sponsored by Sen. Reed Owen Smoot (R-Utah) and Rep. Willis Chatman Hawley (R-Ore.).

KEY TAKEAWAYS
The Smoot-Hawley Act was created to protect U.S. farmers and businesses from foreign competitors.
The Smoot-Hawley Act increased tariffs on foreign imports to the U.S. by about 20%. Over 25 countries responded by increasing their own tariffs on American goods.
Global trade plummeted, contributing to the ill effects of the Great Depression.
More than 1,000 economists urged President Hoover to veto it.
Hoover's successor, President Franklin D. Roosevelt, worked to reduce tariffs and was given more authority to negotiate with heads of state under the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act of 1934.

 

[DannyB0000]

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/04/trump-tariff-compromise-canada-mexico-commerce-lutnick.html

Tariffs could be off the table again like last month with the exception of China, after stocks sell off for 2 days.

 

[TimeISmoney]

Zelensky came out on the record and said he would take the deal from the US last night and end the war.

Hopefully they start to rebuild Ukraine and the money starts to flow into the markets.

 

[Knobby22]

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/04/trump-tariff-compromise-canada-mexico-commerce-lutnick.html

Tariffs could be off the table again like last month with the exception of China, after stocks sell off for 2 days.

Is this the way to run a country?

 

[moXJO]

Is this the way to run a country?

Might be negotiating tactics to blast through other countries tariffs on the US.
As you said the Smmot Hawley Act brought on a depression before.

Imo we will know if Australia cops any tariffs as our trade balance is already in favour of the US. If he slaps them on then we know it's a no win situation for the most part.

Either way Australia needs to change.

 

[moXJO]

Interesting take:

 

[DannyB0000]

The infamous Smmot Hawley Act only had 20% tariffs.

Formally called the United States Tariff Act of 1930, the law is commonly referred to as the Smoot-Hawley Tariff or the Hawley-Smoot Tariff. It was sponsored by Sen. Reed Owen Smoot (R-Utah) and Rep. Willis Chatman Hawley (R-Ore.).

KEY TAKEAWAYS
The Smoot-Hawley Act was created to protect U.S. farmers and businesses from foreign competitors.
The Smoot-Hawley Act increased tariffs on foreign imports to the U.S. by about 20%. Over 25 countries responded by increasing their own tariffs on American goods.
Global trade plummeted, contributing to the ill effects of the Great Depression.
More than 1,000 economists urged President Hoover to veto it.
Hoover's successor, President Franklin D. Roosevelt, worked to reduce tariffs and was given more authority to negotiate with heads of state under the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act of 193

Might be negotiating tactics to blast through other countries tariffs on the US.
As you said the Smmot Hawley Act brought on a depression before.

Imo we will know if Australia cops any tariffs as our trade balance is already in favour of the US. If he slaps them on then we know it's a no win situation for the most part.

Either way Australia needs to change.

Herbert Hoover in 1932 was serious with Tariffs unlike Trump who is throwing tariff threats around like confetti. Smoot and Hawley tariffs weren't removed until after WW2 if you look at the history of it. Its hard to tell where things are going with the current trade war, on again, off again, the Stockmarket is a gamble at the moment.

 

[over9k]

This crash has been brewing for a while. I like the volatility that Trump announcements create.

Agreed. I've been feeling like things were overpriced for quite some time. A solid 10-20%.

Banks have been very quiet achievers

 

[Knobby22]

Might be negotiating tactics to blast through other countries tariffs on the US.
As you said the Smmot Hawley Act brought on a depression before.

Imo we will know if Australia cops any tariffs as our trade balance is already in favour of the US. If he slaps them on then we know it's a no win situation for the most part.

Either way Australia needs to change.

My problem is how ad hoc it is.
Work out what to do then do it.

 

[Knobby22]

Interesting take:

Unless he creates a depression, the crashing of the share market doesn't matter to interest rates, in fact high interest rates can cause a crash.

If he wants low inflation to reduce the debt, then why put tariffs in - they will automatically raise inflation? As I have said before, Trump wants the tariffs to pay for the tax cuts to the top end.

I do think some in his administration want high inflation, to inflate away the debt. we will know if this is the route if the money supply increases.

 

[moXJO]

Herbert Hoover in 1932 was serious with Tariffs unlike Trump who is throwing tariff threats around like confetti. Smoot and Hawley tariffs weren't removed until after WW2 if you look at the history of it. Its hard to tell where things are going with the current trade war, on again, off again, the Stockmarket is a gamble at the moment.

So far Trump is getting his way. Zelensky bent the knee and noticed news: Arab nations have rejected President Trump's proposal to take Gaza and control it and have instead unveiled a $53 BILLION plan to rebuild the Gaza Strip.

Is Trump just trolling everyone into doing what he wants at this point?
This photo probably pushed them



So far he is getting his list of demands filled by trolling the rest of the world, in record time as well. Even Europe is spending more on the military like he wanted. There seems to be method in his madness but it's the US credibility hit that's the downside.

 

[moXJO]

Unless he creates a depression, the crashing of the share market doesn't matter to interest rates, in fact high interest rates can cause a crash.

If he wants low inflation to reduce the debt, then why put tariffs in - they will automatically raise inflation? As I have said before, Trump wants the tariffs to pay for the tax cuts to the top end.

I do think some in his administration want high inflation, to inflate away the debt. we will know if this is the route if the money supply increases.

It's all speculation at this point. He might just be retarded. But he has a lot of smart financial guys around him and so far is getting what he wants.

 

[over9k]

My problem is how ad hoc it is.
Work out what to do then do it.

A LOT of it is responsive.

The 7/10 thing you can do quickly will be more effective than the 10/10 response that you took forever to think about. You can see this through sports, chess etc - in a timed chess match you have to strike the balance between speed and quality. If you can pump out some 7/10 or even 6/10 moves very quickly you can just run the other guy out of time and win the match that way. He might have made better responses but he took so long to make them that their effectiveness was reduced massively.

I don't know if you know anyone in the military but they'll tell you that this is something they teach from the tactical right up to the strategic level - your actions don't have to be perfect if you just put the other guy on the back foot so much that you're able to out maneuver him before he's able to properly respond.

So trump's getting 20 5/10 moves done while the other side completes just one 10/10 response. Quality simply gets overwhelmed with quantity.

 

[moXJO]

A LOT of it is responsive.

The 7/10 thing you can do quickly will be more effective than the 10/10 response that you took forever to think about. You can see this through sports, chess etc - in a timed chess match you have to strike the balance between speed and quality. If you can pump out some 7/10 or even 6/10 moves very quickly you can just run the other guy out of time and win the match that way. He might have made better responses but he took so long to make them that their effectiveness was reduced massively.

I don't know if you know anyone in the military but they'll tell you that this is something they teach from the tactical right up to the strategic level - your actions don't have to be perfect if you just put the other guy on the back foot so much that you're able to out maneuver him before he's able to properly respond.

So trump's getting 20 5/10 moves done while the other side completes just one 10/10 response. Quality simply gets overwhelmed with quantity.

Midterms would surely be in his mind. Burning the start of your term and seeing who lands where and then winning people back as they get closer.

 

[TimeISmoney]

So far Trump is getting his way. Zelensky bent the knee and noticed news: Arab nations have rejected President Trump's proposal to take Gaza and control it and have instead unveiled a $53 BILLION plan to rebuild the Gaza Strip.

Is Trump just trolling everyone into doing what he wants at this point?
This photo probably pushed them
View attachment 194707


So far he is getting his list of demands filled by trolling the rest of the world, in record time as well. Even Europe is spending more on the military like he wanted. There seems to be method in his madness but it's the US credibility hit that's the downside.

He sure knows how to make use of desperation, but it will be embedded in the minds of nations for years, and you don't know if they're waiting for the right time to pounce like China. Zelensky had no choice, Trump pulled 50% of the war support and there's no one that will fill that space. Zelensky tried to renege on the minerals deal 3 times before, and the EU wants it to be over because they're broke. What's better, being run by commie Putin or Trump pilaging all your mineral assets?

I got a funny feeling if Trump loses he'll try to bring everyone down around him with a global recession, China and Japan was smart and sold down their US Govt bonds.