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www.theinternationalforecaster.com
Train Wreck of the Week
By Bob Chapman
May 29 2005
The elitists think we are dumb and they could care less what we
think. The neocon version of democracy is a sham and a cover, which
they hope lends an aura of legitimacy to what they are doing. The
media, of course, trumpets the triumph of this so-called democracy
when in fact it harks back to the 1930's Triumph of the Will.
In Afghanistan we are told Hamid Karzai was freely elected, but the
media leaves out the fact he was a paid consultant for Uocal, a CIA
operative and a front-man for elitist interests.
In Palestine Mohammad Abbas was elected with little support from the
people. He is another stooge for US, UK and Israeli interests. He
sits in power as Palestine's real leader Marwan Barghonti sits in an
Israeli jail.
In Iraq we have Iyad Allawi who has been an asset of MI6 and the CIA
since the 1980s, another stooge for elitist interests.
All three elections were rigged just like George W. Bush's last two
elections to become president. A consistent pattern of rigged
elections. It is not the voting that is democracy; it is the
counting. In Iraq it took a week or more to count the votes in
secrecy of course. All was well though because the UN lent its veneer
of legitimacy. As you can see, all is not as it seems. There is no
question that there is widespread voter fraud in every election in
the US and as well in foreign elections in which the elitists have a
stake.
In the real estate market the question is who will get the ax first.
Will it be San Diego, Los Angeles or perhaps Phoenix? Let's take a
shot at San Diego where we once lived in the hamlet of La Jolla. The
California Association of Realtors Affordability Index recently put
San Diego affordability at 10%, meaning that only the 10% of San
Diego wage earners could afford to buy a median priced home. First-
time buyers are just about locked out of the market. Other buyers are
stretched to the financial limit. Just five years ago the 30-year
fixed was 7.91%, today it is 5.71% and ARMS are 50% cheaper. If the
economy was strengthening it would be different, but the only
strength in the economy is real estate itself. Over 75% of San Diego
Mortgages are some form of ARMS. Twenty-five percent do not make a
down payment and mortgages are being written for as much as 125% loan-
to-value ration. Even if interest rates remained the same you will
have a topping in the market and some correction. We see rates moving
up. How much is dependent on the ability to fund the current account
deficit and reduce government's fiscal budget deficit.
If the San Diego market would revert to mean prices, it would fall by
50% and that is only to the mean. They could and would likely
overshoot the mean. Rising mortgage rates should decrease housing
demand as more and more buyers are priced out of the market or cannot
qualify.
Foreclosures would follow and that will feed upon itself. This is the
third real estate bubble in Southern California in 35 years, so we
know how it works having lived there for 36 years. This boom is
little different than the stock market bubble in 2000, except you
will find real estate is relatively illiquid in a falling market.
This time Americans are way in over their heads in debt and over 50%
of loans are ARMs and 50% of loans are sub-par. You talk about a
dog's breakfast – this is it. Households are carrying overall debts
equal to 80% of their annual disposable income. Yes, whom the gods
will destroy, they first make mad. A major question is, if individual
bankruptcies were close to 10 million over the past five years –
could they double or triple over the next five years? The answer, of
course, is yes.
We are wondering if the pressure on China to revalue is just a ploy
and part of the propaganda crusade to blame America's financial and
economic woes on China.
If China were to revalue there would be some nasty consequences.
Interest rates would rise as would mortgages. The stock, bond and
real estate markets would fall and unemployment would increase. The
budget deficit would grow larger but the current account deficit
would ease somewhat. Thus, you say to yourself, isn't it better for
the Fed and the neocons to postpone the inevitable and let the yuan
remain pegged. You also have to remember China conscientiously
enabled the US government to continue its fiscal irresponsibility.
Could China have made a deal with the neocons? They have and we will
find out in time. Last year China bought $200 billion of dollar
assets. This year they have sold $20 billion in treasuries net in the
first quarter. Up until the end of last year China and Japan carried
the US Treasury. Incidentally, Japan has been a net seller of US
Treasuries by some $30 billion in the first quarter. Keeping the
Treasury solvent has been Caribbean offshore accounts, which the
establishment tells us are hedge funds. We believe it is the US
Treasury and the Fed buying our own paper. Thus, the administration
just might be making noises about China to keep American
manufacturers happy – what there are left of them. No one in
Washington wants to face a depression in office, so they will float
this game as long as possible as Americans have there wealth stolen
by real inflation. How can you protect yourself? Easy, be in gold
related assets. George and the neocons' puppet dictator in Uzbekistan
were responsible for the murder of 600 Muslims last week. This is a
bloodthirsty, brutal, corrupt dictatorship, which George Bush has
chosen for our ally. His forces fired on peaceful demonstrators,
including women and children by helicopter, as trigger-happy militia
plowed through the crowd three times randomly murdering people who
could no longer tolerate the vileness of George W. Bush's friends.
This is democracy neocon style. This is the same dictator who stashed
his gold at the Bank of England, whose daughter was caught with a
plane-load of gold in Moscow and who approves of boiling people alive.
Eighty-percent of the citizens of Uzbekistan are impoverished with no
quality controls on food or products. Healthcare is being privatized
with the careful guidance of the US government. You can open a
business only by bribing public officials. It is a society being run
by criminals and it stands 114th out 144 in the world index of
corruption. These are our new friends. The country exports gold and
cotton and lives on handouts from the US and Europe. Ninety-percent
of the country is desert. These are our partners in crime.
Fitch has downgraded the senior unsecured ratings of GM and GMAC to
BB+ from BBB-. The move reflects the continuing decline in GM's North
American sales of key mid-sized and large SUV products, increasing
product and price competition in the larger pickup market, and their
affect on productivity. They said the rating for GM remains negative.
Train Wreck of the Week
By Bob Chapman
May 29 2005
The elitists think we are dumb and they could care less what we
think. The neocon version of democracy is a sham and a cover, which
they hope lends an aura of legitimacy to what they are doing. The
media, of course, trumpets the triumph of this so-called democracy
when in fact it harks back to the 1930's Triumph of the Will.
In Afghanistan we are told Hamid Karzai was freely elected, but the
media leaves out the fact he was a paid consultant for Uocal, a CIA
operative and a front-man for elitist interests.
In Palestine Mohammad Abbas was elected with little support from the
people. He is another stooge for US, UK and Israeli interests. He
sits in power as Palestine's real leader Marwan Barghonti sits in an
Israeli jail.
In Iraq we have Iyad Allawi who has been an asset of MI6 and the CIA
since the 1980s, another stooge for elitist interests.
All three elections were rigged just like George W. Bush's last two
elections to become president. A consistent pattern of rigged
elections. It is not the voting that is democracy; it is the
counting. In Iraq it took a week or more to count the votes in
secrecy of course. All was well though because the UN lent its veneer
of legitimacy. As you can see, all is not as it seems. There is no
question that there is widespread voter fraud in every election in
the US and as well in foreign elections in which the elitists have a
stake.
In the real estate market the question is who will get the ax first.
Will it be San Diego, Los Angeles or perhaps Phoenix? Let's take a
shot at San Diego where we once lived in the hamlet of La Jolla. The
California Association of Realtors Affordability Index recently put
San Diego affordability at 10%, meaning that only the 10% of San
Diego wage earners could afford to buy a median priced home. First-
time buyers are just about locked out of the market. Other buyers are
stretched to the financial limit. Just five years ago the 30-year
fixed was 7.91%, today it is 5.71% and ARMS are 50% cheaper. If the
economy was strengthening it would be different, but the only
strength in the economy is real estate itself. Over 75% of San Diego
Mortgages are some form of ARMS. Twenty-five percent do not make a
down payment and mortgages are being written for as much as 125% loan-
to-value ration. Even if interest rates remained the same you will
have a topping in the market and some correction. We see rates moving
up. How much is dependent on the ability to fund the current account
deficit and reduce government's fiscal budget deficit.
If the San Diego market would revert to mean prices, it would fall by
50% and that is only to the mean. They could and would likely
overshoot the mean. Rising mortgage rates should decrease housing
demand as more and more buyers are priced out of the market or cannot
qualify.
Foreclosures would follow and that will feed upon itself. This is the
third real estate bubble in Southern California in 35 years, so we
know how it works having lived there for 36 years. This boom is
little different than the stock market bubble in 2000, except you
will find real estate is relatively illiquid in a falling market.
This time Americans are way in over their heads in debt and over 50%
of loans are ARMs and 50% of loans are sub-par. You talk about a
dog's breakfast – this is it. Households are carrying overall debts
equal to 80% of their annual disposable income. Yes, whom the gods
will destroy, they first make mad. A major question is, if individual
bankruptcies were close to 10 million over the past five years –
could they double or triple over the next five years? The answer, of
course, is yes.
We are wondering if the pressure on China to revalue is just a ploy
and part of the propaganda crusade to blame America's financial and
economic woes on China.
If China were to revalue there would be some nasty consequences.
Interest rates would rise as would mortgages. The stock, bond and
real estate markets would fall and unemployment would increase. The
budget deficit would grow larger but the current account deficit
would ease somewhat. Thus, you say to yourself, isn't it better for
the Fed and the neocons to postpone the inevitable and let the yuan
remain pegged. You also have to remember China conscientiously
enabled the US government to continue its fiscal irresponsibility.
Could China have made a deal with the neocons? They have and we will
find out in time. Last year China bought $200 billion of dollar
assets. This year they have sold $20 billion in treasuries net in the
first quarter. Up until the end of last year China and Japan carried
the US Treasury. Incidentally, Japan has been a net seller of US
Treasuries by some $30 billion in the first quarter. Keeping the
Treasury solvent has been Caribbean offshore accounts, which the
establishment tells us are hedge funds. We believe it is the US
Treasury and the Fed buying our own paper. Thus, the administration
just might be making noises about China to keep American
manufacturers happy – what there are left of them. No one in
Washington wants to face a depression in office, so they will float
this game as long as possible as Americans have there wealth stolen
by real inflation. How can you protect yourself? Easy, be in gold
related assets. George and the neocons' puppet dictator in Uzbekistan
were responsible for the murder of 600 Muslims last week. This is a
bloodthirsty, brutal, corrupt dictatorship, which George Bush has
chosen for our ally. His forces fired on peaceful demonstrators,
including women and children by helicopter, as trigger-happy militia
plowed through the crowd three times randomly murdering people who
could no longer tolerate the vileness of George W. Bush's friends.
This is democracy neocon style. This is the same dictator who stashed
his gold at the Bank of England, whose daughter was caught with a
plane-load of gold in Moscow and who approves of boiling people alive.
Eighty-percent of the citizens of Uzbekistan are impoverished with no
quality controls on food or products. Healthcare is being privatized
with the careful guidance of the US government. You can open a
business only by bribing public officials. It is a society being run
by criminals and it stands 114th out 144 in the world index of
corruption. These are our new friends. The country exports gold and
cotton and lives on handouts from the US and Europe. Ninety-percent
of the country is desert. These are our partners in crime.
Fitch has downgraded the senior unsecured ratings of GM and GMAC to
BB+ from BBB-. The move reflects the continuing decline in GM's North
American sales of key mid-sized and large SUV products, increasing
product and price competition in the larger pickup market, and their
affect on productivity. They said the rating for GM remains negative.
