Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The transition to Futures trading

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pavilion103 said:
I liken the last two nights trading to a painter who has identified the colour he wants, bought the right paint, got the right brushes and rollers, painted the wall, given it a second coat, it looks great - job done and then just needs to let it dry.

But instead he comes back and starts touching the paint on the wall to see if it has dried and messes up the whole job!



You know, I'm loving this thread. It has almost been like a trading journal of the emotions of futures trading. I don't mind getting emotional AFTER a trade is done. I think it can reaffirm the good, reaffirm the bad and if it leads to strong analysis/contemplation, then hopefully improve trading.
Click to expand...

ever thought of puting some vids of the sessions....just the crucial periods? camtasia have a low profile freebie easy to run, pop on the headset....you'll be amazed what you see back later espesh when you narrate outloud going into....

suggestion :)
 
Speaking of Videos, i thought most watching this thread would appreciate this from Mike Bellafiore...



Allot of things that TH re-iterates time and time again about performance and improvement are a staple to SMBs success.

The guys that trade full-time, professionally, all talk about the same things. You hear SKC, TH, talk about it as well. Things like sizing up on your best plays, reviewing your performance to find areas of improvement, having a book of plays...

This should be in its own thread for commentary, but lets see what others think.

I posted it here because i thought Pav, Kid etc. would appreciate it.
 
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"One Good Trade"

and

"The Playbook"

look good. I'm thinking of ordering the One Good Trade book online. Could be an interesting read.
 
CanOz said:
Speaking of Videos, i thought most watching this thread would appreciate this from Mike Bellafiore...



Allot of things that TH re-iterates time and time again about performance and improvement are a staple to SMBs success.

The guys that trade full-time, professionally, all talk about the same things. You hear SKC, TH, talk about it as well. Things like sizing up on your best plays, reviewing your performance to find areas of improvement, having a book of plays...

This should be in its own thread for commentary, but lets see what others think.

I posted it here because i thought Pav, Kid etc. would appreciate it.
Click to expand...


Ed Thorpe was all about taking huge positions when the maths told him to, and betting small the rest of the time. Although that might have been more so in cards than trading. I'd like to know how people here determine when to size up.

Canoz, maybe move this to its own thread so that more will read it?
 
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Have been considering that point.
When a number of things point to a high probability move, do I bang on an extra contract to capitalise on these rare high probability opportunities.

I do like the thought of that.
 
Lets see.

Everything is tested.
There are soft and hard tests.
(IE Those likely to remain and those likely to be taken out).
If your B/E stop is below a test area then don't move it until another is formed.
(Test area). That's one way around your problem.

Another is trade a measured move. Take your profit and be happy with it.
That's your trade---that's what you wanted --- what happens after---who cares.

Widen your timeframes.
Your probably being spooked by noise.

So you need to sit down and watch hard and soft test levels see what happens when tested.
You need to learn how to calculate good measured moves.
Get your entries better---IE at a hard stop level.
I know that this may take a while of watching. Like you I'm impatient to enter--which sees me stopped every now and then when I haven't the time.

When you get back let me know when your on line trading and ill Skype.
 
tech/a said:
Lets see. Everything is tested. There are soft and hard tests. (IE Those likely to remain and those likely to be taken out). If your B/E stop is below a test area then don't move it until another is formed. (Test area). That's one way around your problem. Another is trade a measured move. Take your profit and be happy with it. That's your trade---that's what you wanted --- what happens after---who cares. Widen your timeframes. Your probably being spooked by noise. So you need to sit down and watch hard and soft test levels see what happens when tested. You need to learn how to calculate good measured moves. Get your entries better---IE at a hard stop level. I know that this may take a while of watching. Like you I'm impatient to enter--which sees me stopped every now and then when I haven't the time. When you get back let me know when your on line trading and ill Skype.
Click to expand...

Sounds good. Keen for the Skype session.

All sounds worth discussing.

The issue with my stops isn't having them taken out by noise. My issue the last 2 days has been moving my BE stop for no logical reason. Both BE stops were outside the high of the pullbacks. I didn't get taken out. I had them in a great place. This is what annoys me about moving them stupidly when my game plan was to not move them.

Will get my thoughts together when I get back and set up a time. Keen to talk a bit more about measured moves too. Something I need to put some work into. Thanks.
 
Say last night if it went from 6690 to 6660 then pulled back to 6675, does this mean if be looking at a potential measured move down to 6645 (30 points).
 
On that video link.

Listening at the moment.

45 min (most of the minute, maybe watch from late 44 min) is exactly what I have been trying to communicate about the reason for my disappointment the last 2 nights. He sums up perfectly what I've been trying to communicate.
 
Tech, any chance you have a spare moment?

Several trades from the FTSE last night which have left me a little stumped.

Charts are marked.

The first trade, is that a slam dunk long once you see the no supply bar? In that context is the initial stopping volume + no supply bar enough to merit a long? At the time I was actually leaning towards a short based on all the upthrust bars. I entered on the 2nd downthrust and scratched it quickly once I saw the no supply.

The second trade was a fade trade I took. Even in hindsight this morning I like the trade yet it turned out to be a loss. Anything I'm missing?

no supply bar q.jpgFade the highs q.jpg
 
I don't like the second one for the same reason you mention in the first one "the bounce was hardly fierce". Just eyeballing it, the bounce on the first one you watned to trade looks bigger than the bounce on the second one you wanted to fade. I usually view consolidations or short retracements after a move as continuation patterns.

Where you say it felt as if it was rolling over, I would have shorted the highs after the next deeper retracement that came back into the range, So I still would have put on a losing trade, just a little later and higher.
 
Starting to agree with you Hav although I do note that no trade is perfect and I feel like I've taken many worse trades than this which have been profitable.

One thing of note is that the big spike was on volume, but not huge volume and perhaps wasn't enough to suggest stopping volume.

see picture in regards to my thoughts.

ms paint.png
 
In the middle of tenders but will have a look tonight.
I do have some comments relative to the charts shown.
These are really interesting and integral to getting on
winning trades.
The question will it hold or will it go in with it must be answered.
I think I can throw some light on it.
 
tech/a said:
In the middle of tenders but will have a look tonight.
I do have some comments relative to the charts shown.
These are really interesting and integral to getting on
winning trades.
The question will it hold or will it go in with it must be answered.
I think I can throw some light on it.
Click to expand...

Thanks tech, I know you are super busy, I always feel bad asking you for help!!

Look forward to your thoughts tonight, these type of trades are just SO common I really need to nail the theory on them.

EDIT: sorry just one more note to myself.

Always be thinking about the context, both short term and long term. the trade at the bottom of the range when I was looking to get short did produce a number of upthrust bars. That being said these upthrust bars were on WEAK VOLUME with BUYING IN THE BACKGROUND.


The same bar pattern near the top of the range would be very bearish.

Further, if those upthrust bars were on HIGHER volume this would encourage a sell. effectively then we have a market which has found initial support but there are still a large amount of sellers pushing the market down.
 
Kid you would be better trying to stand on your own two feet rather than trying to copy someone else's style that seems to have zero edge outside of a roaring market.

Trying to shoehorn an intraday pattern into some sort of perfect setup or "same as last time this happened" is just another trap on the path of the learners demise. All this message in a bar stuff would be somewhat laughable if it wasn't actually people wasting real effort, time and hope on such rubbish.

If you cannot spend a few months observing a few markets and every few days have "Aha moments" that you can then go about refining for the rest of your trading career then simply you're looking at the world all wrong - your context is.... to put it bluntly....F#ked and in desperate need of a rethink. (and believe me I've been there!!)
 

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