The transition to Futures trading

[tech/a]

The second 17 ticks (Was actually 15 ticks) I was too busy typing stuff on ASF!
I've closed long at B/E and Back short again at 6666.

 

[fiftyeight]

Good nights work

 

[tech/a]

Closed 6670

Off to TV.

Sure it will fall to 6640.
Short at 70 again Stop at 75
and buy stop at 42

Now off to TV
Night

 

[fiftyeight]

Ill keep watching delayed telecast on google finance

 

[tech/a]

Closed 6670

Off to TV.

Sure it will fall to 6640.
Short at 70 again Stop at 75
and buy stop at 42

Now off to TV
Night

Good when it all plays out.

 

[kid hustlr]

Closed 6670

Off to TV.

Sure it will fall to 6640.
Short at 70 again Stop at 75
and buy stop at 42

Now off to TV
Night

2 break even trades for me. I took the long @ 68.5 looking for some buy stops which didn't prevail. Then upon observation of the upthrust @ 9.30 I went short and end up having it scratched. My feel was pretty good last night, just couldn't get on that initial move!!!

 

[fiftyeight]

Tech, most of the moves you seem to get on are a lot quicker than the on you set before TV.

If you were watching it would you have trusted you initial analysis or closed earlier when it went sideways for a few hours?

 

[tech/a]

Tech, most of the moves you seem to get on are a lot quicker than the on you set before TV.

If you were watching it would you have trusted you initial analysis or closed earlier when it went sideways for a few hours?

First hr and last hr are the most volatile normally.

I'm rarely finished work at open and I'm still asleep at close.
If I happen to be home or up Ill trade it.
If I can get a position trade without a great deal of risk then I'll take it.

I've been trading long enough to be able to not think about a move once I've set it up.
Others cant sleep if they have a position trade!!!???

Ill let trades run their course.
But If its clear I'm wrong (like the long retracement play) then ill get out of a low
cost opportunity arises.

 

[fiftyeight]

Cheers for that explanation

 

[kid hustlr]

Not trading just having a peak now.

a lot of weird volume spikes?

also no surprise it gets turned around @ 6660

 

[kid hustlr]

Does anyone know when the BIG players execute the majority of their trades?

I assume it varies, but I'm guessing a lot of the big fund managers/portfolio managers/fund managers execute the majority of their trades on the open and close?

Just thinking out loud a little in regards to my ever going quest to work out who's on the other side of my trades.

 

[havaiana]

Does anyone know when the BIG players execute the majority of their trades?

I assume it varies, but I'm guessing a lot of the big fund managers/portfolio managers/fund managers execute the majority of their trades on the open and close?

Just thinking out loud a little in regards to my ever going quest to work out who's on the other side of my trades.

I reckon they execute any time there is volume. The bigger they are the more volume they need, so obviously market closes/opens etc. But my theory is if they are really big and need to buy for example, they would also use things like the extra volume during bad news to get their fills (which is one of the reasons why the markets often move contrary to announcements.

I don't think monthly (often mean reverting) news announcements will mean that much to a big funds long term idea (most of the time)

 

[Trembling Hand]

Does anyone know when the BIG players execute the majority of their trades?

All the time, day in, day out.

High volume times and low volume times. What you need to worry about is when are they absorbing moves against them so its easier to trap and push against the suckers, (think Reminiscence of a Stock Operator).

Here is a classic one from the Seng yesty,



Sneaky little b@rst@rds!!

 

[havaiana]

All the time, day in, day out.

High volume times and low volume times. What you need to worry about is when are they absorbing moves against them so its easier to trap and push against the suckers, (think Reminiscence of a Stock Operator)....

When you say '....absorbing moves against them so its easier to trap and push against the suckers'

Does this mean that rather than hide their intentions to avoid having to pay worse prices, they are actually trying to protect their position and bully the market their way?

Or is it something like; build position quietly, than bully once they have their fill?

 

[kid hustlr]

I don't think monthly (often mean reverting) news announcements will mean that much to a big funds long term idea (most of the time)

Completely agree that most news items are irrelevant. These guys would spend weeks/months developing a view and undertaking the subsequent accumulation and distribution.

Example below is I think either an FOMC minutes or something FOMC related. Whilst this COULD be a game changer so its not a great example, I think it shows the idea that big funds aren't going to flip there whole book based on some jawboning or a one off announcement. These type of changes are well planned and take time. This spike was just a chance for them to offload.

All the time, day in, day out.

High volume times and low volume times. What you need to worry about is when are they absorbing moves against them so its easier to trap and push against the suckers, (think Reminiscence of a Stock Operator).

Here is a classic one from the Seng yesty,

View attachment 55598

Sneaky little b@rst@rds!!

TH, in regards to the bolded. If I'm a big fund manager and I'm looking to sell a sh!tload of stock, wouldn't I be trying to do it as quietly as possible? If I have a huge line which I need to unwind I don't wan't to get rid of 10% of it then watch the market go 5% against me trying to dump the rest. I don't wan't to trap anyone until I'm done? Or am I looking to closely?

 

[kid hustlr]

Uncanny how similar mine and Hav's questions are

EDIT: Hav wonder if we are just crossing over different players and different time frames. ?

 

[havaiana]

TH or anyone who has an idea how big d*cks trade, I have another kind of related question to this I've always wondered about when i read Reminiscence's . If you were hired by someone to push up the price of x whilst accumulating the least amount of it as possible

Are you buying market on the bottoms and selling tops with limits or
buy bottoms with limits and selling tops at market?

edit:

Uncanny how similar mine and Hav's questions are

EDIT: Hav wonder if we are just crossing over different players and different time frames. ?

I suspect you're right and the answer will be, it depends on the size and what they are trying to achieve

 

[Trembling Hand]

I'll get back to you guys later but there is an interesting game playing out this week on the seng which, i think, will illustrate what I think happens. There has been some nice size short positions built up all week then a positive news ann out of china wipe their weeks work away in 15 min then it gaps higher again yesterday. What happened was a perfect counter attack yesterday arvo but lets see what happens today.

 

[fiftyeight]

View attachment 55598

Sneaky little b@rst@rds!!

So I have not spent enough hours in front of a screen yet and I should be looking for my own patterns, well not patterns but something.

If I can guess maybe what is happening then I can start to look for clues as to when it will happen again.

Somebody big buying just enough for the price to gap, then at the higher levels they sell this new position as well as the original position they wanted sell?

 

[Trembling Hand]

Somebody big buying just enough for the price to gap, then at the higher levels they sell this new position as well as the original position they wanted sell?

No no no. The real world doesn't work like that. You cannot just move a market up as you please. If that was the case why would they gap against themselves in the first place? Someone has just used someone's strength against them. That is the Longs went in balls and all gaped the open and pushed. The shorts just let them take all there shots by absorbing there buying and when they had ran out of ammo pushed back against them. End result is a cascading sell off.

Same pattern just happened again. Opening push let them get their fill over 45 min then in basically 4 minutes pushed every long off side..... perfect!