The transition to Futures trading

[kid hustlr]

ta mate.

 

[pavilion103]

The long:

Look at the bar which it bottomed out on. The highest volume since the open. Also interesting to note that there are two other wide spread down bars in the background with high volume, which found temporary support/consolidation (and then fell lower).
Look at the consistent decline in volume in the bars following the big volume down bar which tested this area. I also liked the tight range. That is something I really look for with these supports. A few bars at least in a tight range on low volume. This gives me confidence to take the long.

If you'd taken your entry anywhere around that 77-79ish area that you wanted to, it would have been an excellent trade IMO. I ended up waiting for the break above at about 80 I think? I considered 78 as I told you last night.

I just couldn't see it going lower with all that in the background.

 

[kid hustlr]

The long:

Look at the bar which it bottomed out on. The highest volume since the open. Also interesting to note that there are two other wide spread down bars in the background with high volume, which found temporary support/consolidation (and then fell lower).
Look at the consistent decline in volume in the bars following the big volume down bar which tested this area. I also liked the tight range. That is something I really look for with these supports. A few bars at least in a tight range on low volume. This gives me confidence to take the long.

If you'd taken your entry anywhere around that 77-79ish area that you wanted to, it would have been an excellent trade IMO. I ended up waiting for the break above at about 80 I think? I considered 78 as I told you last night.

I just couldn't see it going lower with all that in the background.

yeah I mean the long is a slam dunk in hindsight and I can see it clear as day. Same old question with these type of trades is whether we:

1. notice the momentum falling and set a limit order to buy OR
2. wait for confirmation of momentum shifting and then buy stop on the high side. In this case you did the latter.

I think it's case by case basis. one thing though, in your case where you bought the break on the high side, did you set you stop at the low? To me that's like 8 ticks or so which is probably a little to high in my opinion.

If we get a more clear 'retest' then we can buy the break to the highside and set the stop below the re-test, but in this case it just kind of consolidated then ripped up, this was the reason I didnt enter where you did as I was unsure of where my stop would/should be placed.

That make any sense?

 

[pavilion103]

I know what you mean. I guess it depends how good you think the setup is I.e. How unlikely to break back below the low. Also the RR needs to be considered. When it's a major support low (not this one) then the RR is going to be better and it might be worth getting in if you unable to find the 'perfect' setup.
The reason I entered on the break was because it formed a nice little box of a few bars so I had confidence. Entry at 78 is probably best if you can get it. I guess it depends how much confirmation you need.

The other night with my trade it did pull back again on low volume and that's where I got in for a 5 point initial risk. That is my ideal setup long.

I move my stops very quickly until I get it to BE. I don't care if I get taken out. If I do then it means it's pulled back and there is likely another setup available.

Gotta feel comfortable with your personal level of risk. Makes it easier when you've had a winner for the night already, although you don't want to be recklessly complacent!

 

[pavilion103]

Of the two options I prefer the limit order not the buy-stop breakout.

OR

If the bar has pulled back to 73-74 with a high of 77ish THEN I'd enter with a buy-stop at 78ish. This is probably my IDEAL entry. 5-6 point risk with that little bit of extra confirmation.

You could be gutsy and just get in at 73-74 with a 1-2 point risk but I'd need more confirmation in the background as lows can easily be taken out.

The middle option is my preferred. But doesn't mean I won't consider the others if I think it's worth it!

 

[kid hustlr]

I know what you mean. I guess it depends how good you think the setup is I.e. How unlikely to break back below the low. Also the RR needs to be considered. When it's a major support low (not this one) then the RR is going to be better and it might be worth getting in if you unable to find the 'perfect' setup.
The reason I entered on the break was because it formed a nice little box of a few bars so I had confidence. Entry at 78 is probably best if you can get it. I guess it depends how much confirmation you need.

The other night with my trade it did pull back again on low volume and that's where I got in for a 5 point initial risk. That is my ideal setup long.

I move my stops very quickly until I get it to BE. I don't care if I get taken out. If I do then it means it's pulled back and there is likely another setup available.

Gotta feel comfortable with your personal level of risk. Makes it easier when you've had a winner for the night already, although you don't want to be recklessly complacent!

Yep, agreed that the more you like the trade the less 'picky' you should be on how the trade sets up.

Last q before I leave you alone (remember your gone for weeks so I gotta cash in now)

where was your intial stop on the entry? see chart.

 

[kid hustlr]

Of the two options I prefer the limit order not the buy-stop breakout.

OR

If the bar has pulled back to 73-74 with a high of 77ish THEN I'd enter with a buy-stop at 78ish. This is probably my IDEAL entry. 5-6 point risk with that little bit of extra confirmation.

You could be gutsy and just get in at 73-74 with a 1-2 point risk but I'd need more confirmation in the background as lows can easily be taken out.

The middle option is my preferred. But doesn't mean I won't consider the others if I think it's worth it!

Agree completely with all of this. Especially the bold. We think the same way. It's a case by case thing

 

[pavilion103]

Initial stop on the very low.
Moved to that second low very very quickly.
Moved to BE shortly after that.

Could have almost had initial stop at the second low. If it went below that I'd just look for another setup if one presented! I moved the stop there so fast I could have just made that my initial stop.

Was in to minds at the time. So my answer is no help haha.

 

[tech/a]

short FTSE 6672

 

[pavilion103]

I managed to get on tonight. Stayed home.
Short 83. Got out 66



2 trades for the night

 

[pavilion103]

My 3rd and final trade was a small loss of 3.5 points.

Finished up 10.5 points in profit.

Happy enough with that.

 

[pavilion103]

I'm afraid I was hasty in my exit again!

It wasn't at a major support. Should have held my nerve!

 

[tech/a]

Shoulda, Woulda, Coulda

A profit is a profit
Minimize risk .
Learn/Finness/improve
Survive

 

[pavilion103]

Shoulda, Woulda, Coulda A profit is a profit Minimize risk . Learn/Finness/improve Survive

Your inevitable posts after my stupid rants should be enough to deter me by now!!!!

 

[tech/a]

Your inevitable posts after my stupid rants should be enough to deter me by now!!!!

You miss read my posts
They are encouragement
Your too hard on yourself.
The most I have lost in 1 trade
Is $7865 when you surpass that
You've earnt your rant!!

But you won't will you!

Have a great trip
Travel ---- that's life!
I envy you.

 

[tech/a]

My exit is a measured move
My stop is B/E not surprisingly

.

ABC move 1 = Move 3 well that's the plan.

See you in the morning.

 

[pavilion103]

Nah, I know it's encouragement Tech.
I appreciate it. I welcome it.

Some people out there losing money every night and I'm complaining because I'm "only" making 20 or 10 points in a night.

I think with this one is annoyed me because I identified:
1) The daily chart was bearish and I was looking short.
2) I decided pre-trade that I wanted to leave my stop widish to enable a good move
3) The target I estimated was around 6625-6630ish area.

There will be plenty more opportunities. I know.

Just a little disappointed that there was probably 40-50 points on the table and I didn't execute my predetermined plan.


But it's ok.

I will get others like it.

I will be back

 

[kid hustlr]

Didn't realise you were on last night Pav I woulda jumped on Skype.

I couldn't find a trade last night.

I think the trade to make was the initial short that you took and I'll take that next time. - It's added to the playbook. See chart below.

What I was happy about last night was that I had a good feel as to what was going on. I ha a short bias and after we pushed some 30-35 points there was a couple of possible fade opportunities which I DID NOT take.

The combination of some important data (8.30 & 9.30) as well as the fact that I didn't feel there was enough stopping volume and the fade patterns weren't there led me to stand aside in some spots where I would have attempted a fade in the past.

Charts below highlight the trade I should have taken as well as WHY I didn't take the fade opportunities.

As an aside, did you guys notice a couple of big volume spikes in early trade? there was a couple of 1000 lot trades which went through, it kind of messed up my thinking a little, I assume they were crosses or rolls or something. You can see the big spikes on the 1m chart.

 

[pavilion103]

Yeh I also felt that there was no real good long opportunity so I didn't take any.
Just upset I didn't stick to the game plan and hold.... I nailed the best entry of the night.

At the start of the night my target was the 6625-6630 area. Would have worked very well.

There was no major support between the top bad that level. Another reason to hold the short.

Kid , keep me accountable on Skype when we are on next time. On Mondays chart I wrote something about keeping a wider stop once at BE even if it means giving up 10 point profit.
Last night I did the exact opposite.
Walked away with 10 points.
Left about 40 on the table.

Not stressing. Happy with 30 points in the last 2 days. But need to observe this tendency and adjust my trading!

In this case hold because
1) no major support
2) bearish daily chart
3) no genuine reversal bar with strong volume

 

[kid hustlr]

Yeh I also felt that there was no real good long opportunity so I didn't take any.
Just upset I didn't stick to the game plan and hold.... I nailed the best entry of the night.

At the start of the night my target was the 6625-6630 area. Would have worked very well.

There was no major support between the top bad that level. Another reason to hold the short.

Kid , keep me accountable on Skype when we are on next time. On Mondays chart I wrote something about keeping a wider stop once at BE even if it means giving up 10 point profit.
Last night I did the exact opposite.
Walked away with 10 points.
Left about 40 on the table.

Not stressing. Happy with 30 points in the last 2 days. But need to observe this tendency and adjust my trading!

In this case hold because
1) no major support
2) bearish daily chart
3) no genuine reversal bar with strong volume

Yep agreed. my notes were spot on, I said we were opening at support and if it cracks through then there was some 'clear space' which might produce a move. On another note, I'm learning to take more notice of where the bars are closing. when there's lots of bars closing on the lows, be wary to get long and vica versa. I mean its common sense but it's not something I've put much weight to until now.